MT-Gov

[Liberal Lion]

This race seems to be tightening a lot. The last poll had Cooney down only one point and with the MDP ground game that is winnable.

I have seen the airwaves and digital platforms blanketed with hit ads on Gianforte as well. He is not very appealing to Montanans the more they learn about him. I think this race is now Tossup.

[One Term Floridian]

I think this was always a toss-up race. Imo it is Tilt D due to the favorable environment for Dems post-COVID

[SnowLabrador]

Cooney can still win this, but he'd better start spending. I don't want Montana to have Governor Gianforte.

[Mexican Wolf]

Cooney can still win this, but he'd better start spending. I don't want Montana to have Governor Gianforte.

1000x this. I donated to the Cooney campaign last month because I want Dems to keep the governorship and because I hate Gianforte more than BRTD hates Kanye.

[MT Treasurer]

Airwaves and digital platforms have been inundated with anti-Gianforte ads since 2016, and the best Cooney’s own internal poll can show is a 1-point lead for Gianforte? The MDP ground game was solid in 2018 as well, and he still won by 4.5 points.

Don’t get me wrong, this race has always been a Tossup (I said it even when some polls showed him ahead by a high single-digit margin), but I think some Democrats are way too quick to underestimate Gianforte just because they dislike him personally. It’s true that he has a low ceiling for a Republican statewide candidate, but having a low ceiling hasn’t stopped people from running effective campaigns and winning elections (e.g. Rick Scott, Jon Tester).

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

Safe R. Gianforte will win.

[Liberal Lion]

Negative Gianforte ads inundated the state in ‘16 (when he lost) but I would argue that he basically had a free pass in his two Congressional campaigns. I agree that he is often underestimated. His vast fortune a gives him a huge leg up in a cheap media state like Montana. Especially with the consolidated media owned by conservative groups like Lee Newspapers and Sinclair broadcasting.

Question: If Gianforte loses this time is he finished in Montana Politics or does he just buy the nomination again in 4 years?

[Hope For A New Era]

Negative Gianforte ads inundated the state in ‘16 (when he lost) but I would argue that he basically had a free pass in his two Congressional campaigns. I agree that he is often underestimated. His vast fortune a gives him a huge leg up in a cheap media state like Montana. Especially with the consolidated media owned by conservative groups like Lee Newspapers and Sinclair broadcasting.

Question: If Gianforte loses this time is he finished in Montana Politics or does he just buy the nomination again in 4 years?

I thought he was "finished" after he tackled a reporter.

So I doubt he's done now.

[Samof94]

Republicans can survive scandals in general better than Democrats. There are exception of course like that Alabama Senate race.

[The Arizonan]

Republicans can survive scandals in general better than Democrats. There are exception of course like that Alabama Senate race.

Republicans can tolerate adultery and assault, but not pedophilia.

[Heir of Camelot]

There seems to be a lackluster amount of support among Republicans for Gianforte. There are barely any GG yard signs in Kalispell even when they have them for every other candidate.

[MT Treasurer]

There seems to be a lackluster amount of support among Republicans for Gianforte. There are barely any GG yard signs in Kalispell even when they have them for every other candidate.

I think we know how this story ends...

For what it's worth, Gianforte doesn't seem as popular here (Kalispell) as he used to be. Fox has been here to campaign. The Bodyslammer never campaigns. I have yet to see a Gianforte yard sign anywhere. I know that's not always the best barometer but all the other candidates have them everywhere, even Rosenfail.

Gianforte ended up crushing Fox and their own native Olszewski in every House district in Flathead County, including the Kalispell area (Fox even finished third in every HD). Shy Greg vote, guys!

[Heir of Camelot]

You got me there. He doesn't garner much enthusiasm but still manages to win against not Steve Bullock.