ME-02 - Left of Center PAC (D): Golden +5

[VAR]

Aug 25-28, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Golden (D, inc.) 49.5%
Crafts (R) 44.3%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200908_ME.pdf

[Person Man]

I think it safe to say that Collins is in trouble.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lol decimals

[Pollster]

This is Golden +6, not that it makes much of a difference overall.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Undecided 6.25%

[Calthrina950]

I think it safe to say that Collins is in trouble.

That's been clear for months, but Golden certainly seems favored at this point. This race is probably Tilt/Lean D.

[brucejoel99]

Given that this poll had presidential numbers, are there any numbers on Collins?

Because if she's like Trump in being statistically tied in ME-02, then she's getting blown the f**k out across the rest of the state, but she'd presumably at least slightly outperform Trump?

[Xing]

Not as bad as I might’ve thought for Golden. I doubt Trump only wins ME-02 by 2, but a 7-point overperformance is probably enough for Golden to survive if it’s a good night for Democrats, especially with RCV.

[Three-term Incumbent MT Treasurer]

Considering that Golden is facing one of the weakest Republican opponents of all the Democrats in competitive races and that Trump is only ahead by 2 here, this isn’t a particularly good poll for him. That said, this is also a relatively incumbent-friendly district, at least for Democrats, and Golden is a pretty skilled campaigner who certainly won’t be easy to beat. Crafts probably needs Trump to win the district by 2016 numbers or better to win.