ME-02 - Left of Center PAC (D): Golden +5
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  ME-02 - Left of Center PAC (D): Golden +5
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Author Topic: ME-02 - Left of Center PAC (D): Golden +5  (Read 439 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 08, 2020, 02:09:28 PM »

Aug 25-28, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Golden (D, inc.) 49.5%
Crafts (R) 44.3%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200908_ME.pdf
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2020, 02:12:53 PM »

I think it safe to say that Collins is in trouble.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2020, 02:19:21 PM »

Lol decimals
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Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2020, 02:24:07 PM »

This is Golden +6, not that it makes much of a difference overall.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2020, 03:10:37 PM »

Undecided 6.25%
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2020, 03:41:49 PM »

I think it safe to say that Collins is in trouble.

That's been clear for months, but Golden certainly seems favored at this point. This race is probably Tilt/Lean D.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2020, 05:56:34 PM »

Given that this poll had presidential numbers, are there any numbers on Collins?

Because if she's like Trump in being statistically tied in ME-02, then she's getting blown the f**k out across the rest of the state, but she'd presumably at least slightly outperform Trump?
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2020, 06:07:29 PM »

Not as bad as I mightíve thought for Golden. I doubt Trump only wins ME-02 by 2, but a 7-point overperformance is probably enough for Golden to survive if itís a good night for Democrats, especially with RCV.
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Three-term Incumbent MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2020, 07:53:39 PM »

Considering that Golden is facing one of the weakest Republican opponents of all the Democrats in competitive races and that Trump is only ahead by 2 here, this isnít a particularly good poll for him. That said, this is also a relatively incumbent-friendly district, at least for Democrats, and Golden is a pretty skilled campaigner who certainly wonít be easy to beat. Crafts probably needs Trump to win the district by 2016 numbers or better to win.
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