Morning Consult: A bunch of states
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: A bunch of states  (Read 481 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 22, 2020, 05:11:42 AM »
« edited: September 22, 2020, 05:26:35 AM by VARepublican »

AL
Changes with July 24-August 2
Tuberville 52%
Jones 34% (-1)

AZ
Changes with July 17-26
Kelly 49% (-3)
McSally 40% (+4)

CO
Changes with August 21-30
Hickenlooper 49% (+1)
Gardner 42% (+3)

GA
Changes with July 17-26
Ossoff 44% (+2)
Perdue 43% (-2)

KY
Changes with July 24-August 2
McConnell 52% (-1)
McGrath 37% (+1)

MI
Changes with July 17-26
Peters 47% (-2)
James 40% (+5)

NC
Changes with August 14-23
Cunningham 47% (n/c)
Tillis 38% (-1)

SC
764 likely voters
Changes with July 24-August 2

Graham 46% (+2)
Harrison 45% (+2)

TX
Changes with July 24-August 2
Cornyn 45% (+1)
Hegar 39% (+1)

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/22/majority-makers-south-carolina-senate-harrison-graham/



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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2020, 05:24:22 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 08:31:37 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

All September 11-20
Snapshot of SC polling tracker included in linked article
MoEs from 2%-7% per state
I assume likely voter samples are used for all as they have been before in this series

I've added comparison dates below:
AL
Changes with July 24-August 2
Tuberville 52%
Jones 34% (-1)

AZ
Changes with July 17-26
Kelly 49% (-3)
McSally 40% (+4)

CO
Changes with August 21-30
Hickenlooper 49% (+1)
Gardner 42% (+3)

GA
Changes with July 17-26
Ossoff 44% (+2)
Perdue 43% (-2)

KY
Changes with July 24-August 2
McConnell 52% (-1)
McGrath 37% (+1)

MI
Changes with July 17-26
Peters 47% (-2)
James 40% (+5)

NC
Changes with August 14-23
Cunningham 47% (n/c)
Tillis 38% (-1)

SC
764 likely voters
MoE: 3%-4%
Changes with July 24-August 2


Graham 46% (+2)
Harrison 45% (+2)

TX
Changes with July 24-August 2
Cornyn 45% (+1)
Hegar 39% (+1)

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/22/majority-makers-south-carolina-senate-harrison-graham/
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2020, 05:29:10 AM »

These results seem to make sense. SC is a weird race, Graham losing seems too good to be true.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2020, 05:34:23 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 02:37:29 PM by Stuart98 »

All of these polls were conducted mostly before Ginsburg's death so we don't know how that's affecting any of these races. That being said...

  • Disastrous poll for Doug Jones. I'm ready to move AL-Sen into safe R at this point, Jones only wins if there's a massive polling error.
  • Average poll for Kelly (meaning disastrous for McSally)
  • Not as good for Hickenlooper as I expected but not a good poll for Gardner either.
  • Georgia-R continues to be Tilt D.
  • Let's dispel this fiction that KY-Sen is winnable. It's not. (Not that most of y'all need to be told this, but resistance wine moms on my twitter feed most certainly do). Don't know that Booker would be doing much better if he had won but he wouldn't be lighting at least $40 million on fire (and at this point, probably twice that) either.
  • Average to good poll for Peters. Race is losable but James is clearly disfavored.
  • Awful poll for Tillis, race is starting to look likely D.
  • Good poll for Harrison. SC-Sen is Tilt R. Surprised Harrison is getting the support of 8% of GOP voters in this poll; I guess moderates who voted for Graham the maverick in the past before he became... not that?
  • By contrast, bad poll for MJ Hegar, though I doubt she'll lose by 6 points. Not seeing anything other than toplines for this poll so it's hard to say where the undecideds swing, but that's a lot of them for a senate race involving a 3 term incumbent.

Updated 538 senate model chances for Democrats after this and other polls are in this morning, with percents for Deluxe/Classic/Lite:
  • AL: 35%/47%/17%
  • AZ: 78%/79%/86%
  • CO: 67%/70%/76%
  • GA-R: 28%/32%/35%
  • KY: 4%/6%/6%
  • MI: 81%/82%/81%
  • NC: 62%/71%/72%
  • SC: 18%/20%/26%
  • TX: 13%/16%/19%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2020, 05:37:54 AM »

Wow, if you look at their tracker, Harrison actually overtook Graham for quite a few days in the last ~10
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ugabug
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2020, 05:59:49 AM »

If only some of that money spent on Mcgrath had been spent on Hegar instead.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2020, 06:14:17 AM »

If only some of that money spent on Mcgrath had been spent on Hegar instead.

There's still some time left, hopefully this weekend spurred people to send some $$$ to her instead.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2020, 06:15:06 AM »

If only some of that money spent on Mcgrath had been spent on Hegar instead.

There's still some time left, hopefully this weekend spurred people to send some $$$ to her instead.
Unfortunately if my twitter feed is anything to go by, it did not.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2020, 06:53:40 AM »

Sen J Harrison, SC is a Carolina, it's not a Dixiecrat state any longer
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2020, 09:11:02 AM »

Sample sizes are in (all of likely voters):

AL: 658
AZ: 907
CO: 613
GA: 1406
KY: 746
MI: 1376
NC: 1604
TX: 2616
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2020, 11:27:47 AM »

SC is a toss-up. It’s time to admit it. WAY too many polls now showing it tied or within a point or two.

Every dollar that is being wasted on McGrath would be better spent on Harrison. Or any of these other Dems really (except Jones, sorry to say it but he’s DOA). But if you want to target a high profile Republican, clearly Harrison is in a far better position to actually win than McGrath.
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