OH - Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports: Biden +4%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/ohio_biden_49_trump_45

September 1-2, 2020
1000 likely voters
MoE: 3%

Changes with July 15-16 poll, although that was an (R) poll conducted for the American Greatness PAC.

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 45% (-1)
Some other candidate 3% (+1)
Undecided 3% (+1)

[Skill and Chance]

OK wow that is something.  And coming right after a Biden +2 poll in PA?!

[neostassenite31]

What's the relationship between Pulse Opinion Research and Rasmussen? Can one poll independently of the other?  

[Buzz]

Clown poll lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news

[forza nocta]

No

[Person Man]

I believe this about as much as I believe that Trump is catching up in Pennsylvania.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Clown poll lol

Yeah. Rasmussen has two issues:

(1) Strong Republican bias
(2) Zogby-esque wild swings

(1) is often taken to mean the numbers are always R-friendly. The appropriate takeaway is that while the average of all Rasmussen polls will be R-friendly, there's a huge standard deviation and none of their surveys should be taken particularly seriously (although they're not the worst trash out there, tbf).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

No.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't get how Trump can have a positive net 2 approval and still be losing OH by 4

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't get how Trump can have a positive net 2 approval and still be losing OH by 4

Read the tea leaves and spend some time in Real America. The relentlessly positive tone of the campaign means there are clearly many voters who highly approve of both Trump and Biden and are torn as to which is their favourite.

[neostassenite31]

Perhaps this poll was intentionally put out there by people associated with the Trump campaign to lure Biden to contest and place more resources into Ohio. With the general election in full swing I couldn't help but see R internal polls like this being used for some strategic purpose (otherwise why release them)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The moral of the story is: take Rasmussen polls with a huge grain of salt.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Update: they publicised a fuller version of this survey with leaners (presumably, all undecided voters were pushed, although I can't access their premium content).

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/questions/questions_ohio_presidential_race_september_1_2_2020

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 47% (+1)

[wbrocks67]

OK wow that is something.  And coming right after a Biden +2 poll in PA?!

TBH, most of the recent Pennsylvania polling has been junk.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rasmussen is garbage, no matter their toplines.

[wbrocks67]

Perhaps this poll was intentionally put out there by people associated with the Trump campaign to lure Biden to contest and place more resources into Ohio. With the general election in full swing I couldn't help but see R internal polls like this being used for some strategic purpose (otherwise why release them)

Biden's campaign has been spending $$ in OH for months now though. If anything, while I don't think Biden is really up 4, it could be he IS doing better in OH b/c he has been up on the air for months

[WD]

No

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

So, Biden is doing 2% better here than in PA. Something is rotten in the state of polling, but I’m not quite sure what.

[wbrocks67]

So, Biden is doing 2% better here than in PA. Something is rotten in the state of polling, but I’m not quite sure what.

I think we have a combo of a lot of pollsters not sure how to weight this year. Do they weight with no education, like the mistake in 2016? Then you have some who have reweighted by education, but are also reweighting the electorate to look like it did in 2016, when that's incredibly unlikely.

[Woody]

This is why in general you shouldn't trust polls.

[YE]

R leaning pollsters do this occasionally.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This is why in general you shouldn't trust polls.

No, it's the case for assessing a pollster's quality amongst a host of other factors. Most polls aren't Rasmussen-tier.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Wow in whatever universe Rasmussen is polling, Biden could actually win the election while losing the popular vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is why in general you shouldn't trust polls.

PA, MI, OH, IL, IN, NY, NJ, MD, TX, WI , FL, VA, NC and GA have 20 percent AA in these states, and Biden does better than Hillary does with AA and WC voters