PA - Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.: Biden +2%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://susquehannapolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Toplines-PAStatewide-FallOmnibus-Sept2020.pdf

August 26-September 4, 2020
498 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Changes with June 15-23 poll.

Biden 44% (-2)
Trump 42% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)
Refused 3% (+3)
Undecided 7% (-1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Close, Biden still leads

[LimoLiberal]

Not great.

[wbrocks67]

Susquehanna is not a great polling outfit and is R-leaned. Not to mention, a poll with Biden and Trump at 44-42 is some 2016 nonsense.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Semi-related, but 270towin just posted their "The Road to 270" for Pennsylvania.  I found this line rather interesting:

In 2016, Pennsylvania was won and lost in small towns but in 2020 it will be decided in the affluent suburbs.

Source:  https://www.270towin.com/news/2020/09/07/the-road-270-pennsylvania_1095.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a QU poll here, but I am not worried about PA, we may see it consistently be tied until Election Day; consequently, Biden will get a very good pad on his lead in every swing state in Early Voting and VBM

[neostassenite31]

The sampling period does overlap with the RNC and its immediately aftermath. Would like to see PA polls fielded starting around 08/30 or after.

[YE]

Not too good on the surface but the writeup seems to be pushing a narrative so idk what to make of it.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... need a high quality nonpartisan poll of NE-02 ASAP.  Whether it is is Biden+3 or Biden+9 right now could mean everything.

[Sir Mohamed]

How reliable is this pollster? But regardless, it seems like Biden struggling or at least underperforming in PA. As others pointed out in a different thread, we may have overlooked Trump got 290k more raw votes compared to Romney here. In WI, which everyone thought was the hardest to flip, he received less raw votes in 2016.

PA is definitely no more than Lean D. Biden really needs to focus on FL and AZ as insurance here. If he wins them both, there is hardly a path to 270 left for Trump.

[SaneDemocrat]

Check the polls twitter page

[wbrocks67]

Check the polls twitter page

This. They have an agenda.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Check the polls twitter page

This. They have an agenda.

So do PPP (D), Cygnal (R), etc. Like those two, however, their record suggests they aren't actually too biased in their public surveys, so should not be lumped in with various internals, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc.

[Skill and Chance]

Check the polls twitter page

This. They have an agenda.

Looks like an explicitly Republican leaning firm.  The 2016 PA results do still give me some pause.

[wbrocks67]

Check the polls twitter page

This. They have an agenda.

So do PPP (D), Cygnal (R), etc. Like those two, however, their record suggests they aren't actually too biased in their public surveys, so should not be lumped in with various internals, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc.

Susquehanna's polling generally hasn't been that great.

Not to mention, even in this particular survey, you have a nearly 85% white sample which is even whiter than 2016.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not saying Biden is gonna win by Casey/Wolf margins, but people really like to ignore the 2018 result ... and the 2017 result, and the 2019 result, and even this year's primary where Ds outvoted Rs by over 10% statewide.

It doesn't help that a lot of the PA polling we've gotten is really meh.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm not saying Biden is gonna win by Casey/Wolf margins, but people really like to ignore the 2018 result ... and the 2017 result, and the 2019 result, and even this year's primary where Ds outvoted Rs by over 10% statewide.

It doesn't help that a lot of the PA polling we've gotten is really meh.

I agree, this is why it's Lean D. Someone correct me, though, GOP voter registration in PA increased significantly over recent 1-2 years, resulting into pretty much a tie between the parties. I wouldn't read too much into that, but definitely signals the GOP is at work here adding tons of voters to their rolls. In the end, it will as always come down to turnout. Biden needs to improve in Philly suburbs from 2016, stop the bleeding in rurals and improve in other population centers/suburbs, like Erie (which looks good, according to most recent data we have from this area). My current prediction for PA would be something around Biden +4, winning 51-47%.

[Annatar]

This pollster has a D bias, 538 has them at a mean reverted bias of D+0.9, maybe they won’t have a D bias this year though.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Dems still have an ~800K lead, but the lead they have now in 2020 is just about the same as they did in 2018. Ds had a bigger lead in 2016 than 2018, yet in 2018 they crushed it, so at the end of the day it almost doesn't matter.

Not to mention, a lot of the R registration appears to be former Ds who have been voting R and now just making it official. There was an article that said the most *NEW* registrations were actually Dems.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm not saying Biden is gonna win by Casey/Wolf margins, but people really like to ignore the 2018 result ... and the 2017 result, and the 2019 result, and even this year's primary where Ds outvoted Rs by over 10% statewide.

It doesn't help that a lot of the PA polling we've gotten is really meh.

I agree, this is why it's Lean D. Someone correct me, though, GOP voter registration in PA increased significantly over recent 1-2 years, resulting into pretty much a tie between the parties. I wouldn't read too much into that, but definitely signals the GOP is at work here adding tons of voters to their rolls. In the end, it will as always come down to turnout. Biden needs to improve in Philly suburbs from 2016, stop the bleeding in rurals and improve in other population centers/suburbs, like Erie (which looks good, according to most recent data we have from this area). My current prediction for PA would be something around Biden +4, winning 51-47%.

[CellarDoor]

Just a reminder that an incumbent President getting 42% isn't very good.  That being said, a poll with this many undecideds isn't very good either. 

[JerryArkansas]

Check the polls twitter page

This. They have an agenda.

So do PPP (D), Cygnal (R), etc. Like those two, however, their record suggests they aren't actually too biased in their public surveys, so should not be lumped in with various internals, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc.

When you act like Rasmussen and Trafalgar on twitter yeah its probably best to be lumped in  with them.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Check the polls twitter page

This. They have an agenda.

So do PPP (D), Cygnal (R), etc. Like those two, however, their record suggests they aren't actually too biased in their public surveys, so should not be lumped in with various internals, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc.

When you act like Rasmussen and Trafalgar on twitter yeah its probably best to be lumped in  with them.

PPP has done the occasional Twitter dunk. Don't judge a book too harshly by its cover.

[JerryArkansas]

Check the polls twitter page

This. They have an agenda.

So do PPP (D), Cygnal (R), etc. Like those two, however, their record suggests they aren't actually too biased in their public surveys, so should not be lumped in with various internals, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc.

When you act like Rasmussen and Trafalgar on twitter yeah its probably best to be lumped in  with them.

PPP has done the occasional Twitter dunk. Don't judge a book too harshly by its cover.

They retweet partisan posts and are on an anger spree because they were criticized.  PPP doesn't do anything close to that.  That's not judging a book by its cover.  It's judging by its contents.

[Gass3268]

Hard to take a pollster serious that tweets this out:

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1303351218153103362?s=20