Reaction to this 2024 result

[Sir Mohamed]

How would you react to this 2024 result? How likely is it?

Note: I adjusted electoral votes according to the 2020 US Census (projection by yapms.com).

✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 295 EVs.; 51.2%
Governor Greg Gianforte (R-MT)/Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL): 243 EVs.; 46.9%

[Hope For A New Era]

Gianforte campaigned almost exclusively in Minnesota, because he wanted to make a point and didn't actually care if he won the election or not.

[Samof94]

Georgia going blue is the big twist

[Blackacre]

PA/NC/FL would be surprises, but nothing else.

[Sir Mohamed]

PA/NC/FL would be surprises, but nothing else.

I think neither of these such a huge surprise. Harris will likely do slightly better than Biden with minorities and but worse with WWC voters. The scenario assumes GOP trends in the Midwest outside IL continue after Biden won the presidency, while MI stays Dem because of having a strong D-lean and Whitmer on the ticket. Harris winning FL isn't a huge surprise in a D+4 environment either. Gaetz is on the ticket for sure, but as Rep from the panhandle isn't huge household name statewide. As for NC, he'd expect her to come close, but it's D-trend appears to be slower compared to other Sunbelt states and it's been less elastic than GA or AZ.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Not that unlikely.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

[Stuart98]

Nothing shocking. I'd expect Texas to be lean D in four years though. I'd also expect Nebraska to stop splitting EVs by CD after this year?

The thing that makes the least sense is Matt Gaetz as Gianforte's running mate - incredibly polarizing figure, I don't see what he brings to the table other than "he's from Florida so clearly he'll help win Florida" - which doesn't even happen in the given map.