Would Utah be a mini Colorado if it wasn't for the LDS church?

[TopShelfGoal]

Demographically Utah SCREAMS a blue leaning state in the current political alignment.

It has above average education attainment with 32.5% of the population having college degree. Every state with the exception of Utah/Kansas that has above average college degree % was a blue state in 2016.

It is significantly more urban than the country as whole ranking #9 in terms or urbanization. Every state that is near as urban as Utah is a straight up blue state with the exception of Arizona which is a swing state (AZ has much lower college attainment and is older).

It is also the youngest state in the country.

All these datapoints in the current political alignment make Utah stick out like a sore thumb in the current GOP coalition. Based on these demographics it seems Utah should atleast be a blue leaning state (sort the Minnesota of the West).

I assume that the LDS church's influence has prevented the state from sharply moving left. If it wasn't for the LDS church do you think Utah would be a blue leaning state? With more and more Americans becoming less inclined to identify with a religion each passing year, is there a chance that Utah becomes a swing state in the medium term future?

[ultraviolet]

Definitely. Eventually, as more people move there from elsewhere, the LDS church will lose influence and Utah will be blue. Because yes, demographically, it’s extremely favorable to Dems

[StateBoiler]

Think it's more likely it'd be Nevada. There's no Salt Lake City without the Latter Day Saints. Somewhere would be the capital, but doesn't necessarily mean it'd be what Salt Lake City is. Probably the Olympics would have never occurred there.

[bagelman]

It might end up as another Wyoming instead. Perhaps part of a larger Nevada or Colorado.

[Agonized-Statism]

A curious effect of Utah's Mormon history is that it's state with the largest Anglo-American population proportionally, since their trek westward had the effect of isolating a group of generic mid-19th century Americans from before the Germans and Irish took over. That might be relevant in the elections where prohibition was an issue.

Absent that, its demographics might resemble the rest of the wild west. Would at the very least be a swing state in 2020. However, removing the Mormons removes a lot of college-educated Anglo whites, so it would be that way for different reasons. As the LDS is strong in surrounding states like Idaho, the voting history of the entire west is up for debate.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Actually, it would be far more Democratic than Colorado is. It would be like Vermont.

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, if the church never existed, the state likely wouldn't either.

Assuming a scenario, though, in which you can snap your fingers and cause the LDS church to vanish now, leaving everything else unchanged...yes, Utah would be D. Probably much more than Colorado. Even now, it has some "blue-isms" that other R states lack, like heavy use of mail voting and strong anti-discrimination laws. In a way, it reminds me a bit of Iowa - a very "nice" and "pro-democracy" state, one of very few states where the Republicans at least somewhat play fairly.

Utah is a demographic tinderbox. The church's influence is steadily declining. Just have to wait. Davis County is the place to watch, I think.

[StateBoiler]

Assuming a scenario, though, in which you can snap your fingers and cause the LDS church to vanish now, leaving everything else unchanged...yes, Utah would be D. Probably much more than Colorado.

McMullin in 2016 got 2nd in 15 of the 29 counties ahead of Clinton, finished ahead of her in 1 congressional district and pretty much tied in another. Yeah, there's no McMullin strong candidacy in Utah if the LDS church was vanished out of existence. But that doesn't speak to a huge embrace of the Democratic Party more than a largely Republican electorate that hated the Republican candidate.

[One Term Floridian]

If anything it could have been a much more R leaning state today like WY or NV outside of Reno & Vegas. Without Mormonism, imo this state would have been just another populist hellhole.

[Del Tachi]

It is also the youngest state in the country.

Utah's relative youth is actually a mark against Democrats in this case, because it's driven by Mormon families having lots of kids.  The average middle-aged Mormon couple has 3.4 kids, compared to 2.1 average for all Americans.

Which illustrates the broader point...Utah isn't highly educated and Anglo in spite of Mormons, it's these things because of Mormons.  If you snap your fingers and erase the LDS Church from history, contemporary Utah would probably have a lot more in common with Montana or Wyoming than Colorado.   

[Del Tachi]

Even now, it has some "blue-isms" that other R states lack, like heavy use of mail voting and strong anti-discrimination laws.

Utah only has these things because the state is overwhelmingly animated by a sense of Mormon communitarianism.  Absent the influence of the LDS Church, I doubt Utah would be leading on issues like voting rights and anti-discrimination. 

[Alcibiades]

Like what others have said: Utah would be Democratic-leaning if it kept all of its current demographics minus the Mormonism, but if the LDS Church never existed, it would have been like Wyoming or Idaho, as the land, even around Salt Lake City, is inhospitable and was only settled because the Mormons had nowhere else to go and had the will to turn it into somewhere that was tolerable to live in.