Will Your Precinct Go To Trump Or Biden? Sept 2020 Edition.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Without looking it up I'd expect Trump to win my precinct. Outer suburbs with some diversity but still seeing stars and bars about, including flying high on the back of pickup trucks.

Damn traitors.

They know that General Grant hailed from Ohio....right?

It's like when I to visit certain areas of NJ, I usually see a few Stars-n-Bars flags and bumper stickers that say things like "Pride, not Racist!"

The reasons for and against flying the flag aside, you just like shaking these folks and going "YOU LIVE IN NEW JERSEY!"

[Hassan 2022]

Biden will win my precinct and it won't be close.

[MATTROSE94]

Easily for Donald Trump (he may get 80%+ of the vote in my precinct). With the exception of Ross Perot in 1992, Bill Clinton in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, and Barack Obama in 2012, my town has been overwhelmingly Republican since the 1980 election.

[Drew]

Safe D.  My precinct just outside of Madison consistently goes more or less 2/3 D.

[Bomster]

I would assume my college would go for Biden by a wide margin. My exurb hometown will probably be narrow, but still go to trump.

[sguberman]

Without looking it up I'd expect Trump to win my precinct. Outer suburbs with some diversity but still seeing stars and bars about, including flying high on the back of pickup trucks.

Damn traitors.

They know that General Grant hailed from Ohio....right?

It's like when I to visit certain areas of NJ, I usually see a few Stars-n-Bars flags and bumper stickers that say things like "Pride, not Racist!"
 

The reasons for and against flying the flag aside, you just like shaking these folks and going "YOU LIVE IN NEW JERSEY!"

What's funny is that I live in Northern Virginia so even though I live in a Confederate state there are no Confederate flags where I live.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

North Dallas county suburbs, very white, it went 53-46 mccain, 55-44 romney, then 54-41 clinton. Allred then won it 57-42, Beto won it 60-39, and every other democrat in 2018 won it including Lupe Valdez. Biden will destroy Trump here by a similar margin to Beto v Cruz. In the primary it was 46 biden 20 bloomberg 15 bernie 9 warren 6 pete etc. so very neolib lol

my precinct HATED Trump. 61-38 Biden.

[Hope For A New Era]

Utah precinct is unremarkable (Titanium D). Waiting on results for the Missouri precinct. Was R+10.5 in 2016. Based on suburban swings nationwide, it in theory would be the part of the county that would swing D the hardest, so I'm very much looking forward to seeing the result.

[JGibson]

My precinct in Madison County, IL: Nameoki Township
Trump's the favorite to win the precinct at the Presidential level; however, Democrats will likely win at least some of the countywide offices in this precinct.

In 2012, Democrats mostly did well downballot even as Obama lost it. 8 years later, it's a mostly red precinct that is capable of giving Democrats wins occasionally.

Looks like the GOP almost completely dominated my precinct.

[neostassenite31]

My precinct was R+3 in 2012, D+20 in 2016, and then D+38 in 2020 (68% Biden to 30% Trump). And this is in Ramsey Co, MN

[GeorgiaModerate]

Forsyth County, Georgia, 80-15 Trump in 2016.  There's not much suspense in this one.

The county added new precincts and redrew the lines last year, so the numbers aren't directly comparable.  But the two precincts that got most of my original one ended up 75-23 and 67-31.  This is representative of the county's overall swing, which was 71-24 to 66-33 pending a few final ballots to be counted.

Biden actually won one Forsyth County precinct 55-43 and came close in another (52-47 Trump).

[NOVA Green]

Bump....

My downstate OR WWC Factory Town Precinct went DEM for Biden for the 1st time since before '08 (Quite possibly DEM for the 1st time since maybe '88 / '92)

2020:

Biden- 49%     (+3% Biden)      +9% DEM SWING
Trump- 46%

2016:

HRC-    40%    (+6% Trump)      +5% DEM SWING
Trump- 46%

2012:

Obama- 42%   (+11% Romney)   +7% PUB SWING
Romney-53%

2008:

Obama- 47%  (+4% McCain)
McCain- 51%

Anyone want to share some of their precinct numbers?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It will vote for Trump for sure, but the margin will be telling.  My precinct was 61-32 Trump (slightly less Republican than Williamson County as a whole) and 74-25 Romney.  Bill Lee and Mark Green also both got 61% of the vote here (Blackburn did worse, but still won it by 12 points), so 61% seems like a good baseline.  It was a little bit more Republican again for this year's Congressional primary ballot preference, but I'll say Trump matches his 61% from 2016, with most of the undecideds going to Biden.

61-37 Trump, the same as Lee vs. Dean, seems fair.  I anticipate that Williamson County will look a lot like the Lee vs. Dean race too (65-33 Lee).  But, if Trump drops into the 50s in my precinct, it's probably indicative of a significant Democratic suburban swing (even outside of the rapidly trending Texas suburbs).

EDIT: I do think Hagerty will overperform Trump pretty significantly here (even though it was a very strong Sethi precinct in the primary).  Including downballot races, I'll say something like this:

PRES: Trump 61, Biden 37
SEN: Hagerty 66, Bradshaw 28
HOUSE: Green 64, Sreepada 34
ST HOUSE: Casada 57, Madeira 30, Fiscus 13 (not really sure how strong the Fiscus candidacy will be, but he seems more serious than most Independents)

I was a little optimistic on all but three House race, which I got exactly right.

President: Trump 58, Biden 40
Senate: Hagerty 63, Bradshaw 34
House: Green 64, Sreepada 34 (exactly correct)
State House: Casada 52, Madeira 32, Fiscus 15

[Dereich]

My precinct voted 47.37% Trump/46.15% Hillary. I'd guess it'll go something like 48/46 for Biden.

I underestimated the swing in my precinct...thinking back on it, predicting a swing of 1% was extremely timid. My precinct voted for Biden 1493-1231; 53.51% Biden/44.12% Trump.

[xavier110]

So...my district was 50/50 and Trump won it by about a dozen votes

And it was one of the few precincts in AZ where McSally outran Trump. LOL wealthy people

My district is in North Phoenix/Scottsdale - pretty affluent white area.

2016 Presidential results:
Trump 50.64%
Clinton 43.20%
Johnson 3.49%
Stein 0.69%
Write-in 1.98%

2020 Senate results:
McSally 49.69%
Sinema 49.10%
Green 1.13%

Looking at these results, I find it hard to say - it’s gonna be a nail-biter! My guess is Biden, barely, maybe by a few votes. McSally won by 30 votes out of 5k cast, and I think this district is only swinging harder Dem... Romney and Flake in 2012 took 62 and 58 percent, respectively!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bagel's neighborhood:





One of Bagel's old neighborhoods:






It even voted for Ted Cruz 52-46 lol

One of Bagel's old neighborhoods:





It voted for Cruz 50-49

Bagel's former best friend's neighborhood:





voted for cruz 51-48

Bagel's new best friend's neighborhood:





North Dallas absolutely hates Trump. Biden did what he had to do to win Texas in this area. It's the mexicans that killed us.

[nclib]

73-24 Biden.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

55-43 Biden, was only 48-46 Clinton in 2016

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump won mine by over 20%

[here2view]

Clinton won it 62-28 with 10% third party vote. It was the worst Republican performance and the best Democratic performance since at least 2000.

I predict Biden will win 67-30

I ended up underestimating Biden — he won 71-26

[Chips]

My precinct went for Trump. I live in a rural area so it isn't surprising.

[Calthrina950]

Trump won my precinct 55-41%, which represents a significant swing in Biden's favor compared to 2016. That year, Trump beat Clinton 58-30% in my precinct. This correlates to the significant swing towards Biden overall in Colorado Springs and in El Paso County, where he became the first Democrat to break 40% since Lyndon B. Johnson won the county in 1964.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

where one of my mom’s russian friends who is a trump loving karen lives lol

[Canis]

Mine is Safe Biden
2016: Clinton 67% Trump 27%
so yeah I see no way for Trump to do better in my precint lol its gotten bluer since 2016 imo Biden will probably break 70%

Mine pretty much barely budged
it went Biden 68% - Trump 30% so it swung to Trump by 2 points.

[Fwillb21]

My precinct went to Biden as it has a substantial African American population, which is why I also suspected it would.