Will Your Precinct Go To Trump Or Biden? Sept 2020 Edition.

[Beet]

My precinct near the I-610 beltway area of Houston voted 57% Clinton, 34% Trump. It seems like Johnson and McMullin got a significant amount of votes here, but there also appear to be a small amount of undervotes in the presidential race.

Biden will certainly win here, the only question is whether he can pick up the 3rd party and undervotes from 2016 or if they consolidate to Trump.

[TWTown]

There’s a very real possibility of Biden receiving 80% of the vote in my precinct.

[rhg2052]

My precinct in Brooklyn -

2016 - 89-6 Clinton

I’m sure it will go to Biden by similar margins.

[Chips]

My precinct gave Trump 74%. No questions here.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Wayne-01, Indianapolis, Marion, Indiana representing.

Hillary Clinton won our precinct by 13 votes (298-285). However, this is how the city-county council changed between 2015 and 2019. I'm in District 6:

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/columnists/james-briggs/2019/11/07/indianapolis-republicans-just-got-bludgeoned-into-irrelevance/2506619001/

I would be surprised if Biden didn't win our precinct. And I would be very surprised if Biden doesn't improve on Clinton's 22-point victory in Marion County.

(Marion County precincts mirrored the above trends in Presidential contests between 2008 and 2016, but I'm too lazy to dig up the 2008 and 2012 maps. It's not just local politics driving this trend.)

[limac333]

In the Grafton Township 19th precinct of McHenry County, Trump won 473-456. I'd imagine Biden makes up that 17 votes somewhere.

[StateBoiler]

Trump easily. The Democratic Party where I'm at is a disgrace that is by fact a 3rd party.

[n1240]

Precinct at college is safe Biden (68-21 in 2016), precinct at home is likely Trump (54-41 in 2016, 53-47 Braun in 2018).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Precinct at college is safe Biden (68-21 in 2016), precinct at home is likely Trump (54-41 in 2016, 53-47 Braun in 2018).

One could argue that Mike Braun was the Democrat in that race. I know Todd Rokita would

[here2view]

Clinton won it 62-28 with 10% third party vote. It was the worst Republican performance and the best Democratic performance since at least 2000.

I predict Biden will win 67-30

[xavier110]

My district is in North Phoenix/Scottsdale - pretty affluent white area.

2016 Presidential results:
Trump 50.64%
Clinton 43.20%
Johnson 3.49%
Stein 0.69%
Write-in 1.98%

2020 Senate results:
McSally 49.69%
Sinema 49.10%
Green 1.13%

Looking at these results, I find it hard to say - it’s gonna be a nail-biter! My guess is Biden, barely, maybe by a few votes. McSally won by 30 votes out of 5k cast, and I think this district is only swinging harder Dem... Romney and Flake in 2012 took 62 and 58 percent, respectively!

[ugabug]

Where i'm at went for Trump by 77% in 16 and as far as i can tell this year should be similar.

[Kuumo]

My precinct was 71.1% Clinton and 19.0% Trump with almost 10% going to third parties. I would guess that it votes by an even bigger margin for Biden.

[AndyHogan14]

It depends...I split my time between Monterey and Orange County and the precinct in which I live in Monterey will go to Biden in a landslide. In Orange County, where I am registered, I'd say it is a pure tossup/tilt Trump. Trump won it last time with just barely over 50%, so I could see it barely flipping over to Biden given everything that is going on right now.

[Admiral Stockdale]

I live in a small, highly religious, upper middle-class blue-collar suburb that's 93% white.

Trump won 55-40 in 2016. Romney won 57-41 in 2012. Hugin (Republican, Senate) won 57-41 in 2018. BUT Gottheimer (Democrat, US House) won 54-45.

Trump probably wins, but given Biden's strength in the suburbs he could cut into his lead. Then again, Biden is ideologically closer to Gottheimer than Menendez/Clinton/Obama, so he MIGHT have an outside shot if Trump really screws up.

I'd put money on Trump winning my town though.

I would say the same for my town.

[Holmes]

Overwhelmingly Biden.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

>upper middle-class
>blue-collar

suburb that's 93% white.

Plumbers who make $70k/year kind of thing?

[Hope For A New Era]

Precinct in Missouri: Not sure. It’s been consistently Republican for a long time, but it’s also prime realignment territory (McCain-lovers). I’ll go Lean R for now.

Precinct in Utah: Safe D.

[Ferguson97]

>upper middle-class
>blue-collar

suburb that's 93% white.

Plumbers who make $70k/year kind of thing?

Lots of small business owners, trade workers, stuff like that

[kireev]

Easily Biden. I live in Snoqualmie Ridge - upscale outer suburbs of Seattle. My precinct is probably the richest here, located around a golf course and it had the lowest share of votes for Sanders in Snoqualmie in the primary. This precinct  went for Romney in 2012 and then Clinton won it 57% to 33% in 2016.  Biden will probably win it with over 60% this time.

[Dr. MB]

Definitely Biden. Mine improved from Obama 2012 to Hillary 2016 even though I'm pretty sure she got less in terms of raw % because of third parties. She got 64% in 2016 but straight two-party it's 72-28. In terms of two parties Obama beat out Romney 66-34. So my bet is Biden gets even more.

[cg41386]

Biden, easily.

[SingingAnalyst]

Last time, my Macomb County precinct went 57.9 Trump - 38.6 Clinton, so probably Trump.

[Stuart98]

My precinct was Trump+20 over McMullin in 2016, so unless Biden wins literally all of the McMullin voters this year it'll go to Trump.

[H. Ross Peron]

My precinct is in a lower-middle/working-class area of Anaheim in Orange County, CA and majority Latino, as well as a large Middle Eastern population (bordering Little Gaza). It went 73-20 for Clinton in 2016 and 63-16 for Sanders in March. Safe Biden.