Will Your Precinct Go To Trump Or Biden? Sept 2020 Edition.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Unless Trump wins the black vote he's definitely not winning my precinct.

[forza nocta]

My precinct voted for Clinton 55-43. But she just barely won my town as a whole by something like 49-48

[AGA]

There's the precinct I live in and the precinct I vote in. Both are Titanium D.

[KaiserDave]

Biden is likely to get over 90% of the vote here. It is a very real possibly that Hawkins beats Trump here.

[Real Texan Politics]

My little tiny precinct in the northwest Houston suburbs voted 65-31 Clinton, which my guess is mainly due to the area (despite being further from downtown) being majority-minority. I suspect Biden could overperform in this precinct if youth turnout goes up, or maybe Trump could overperform if more independents here turnout for him. Otherwise there may not be much of a difference.

Oddly enough there's two precincts right next door that have more wealthy master planned communities, and those voted for Trump. Although with rapid growth in the area, this could change fast.

And as for my county (Harris County), Clinton won 54-42. Also a guaranteed Biden win this election, though I doubt he'll crack 60 since the suburbs are pretty purple while Houston itself is diamond blue.

Edit: By tiny I mean by size. The population is decent sized, but it's probably the population density that makes it kinda small. Also a lot of young people in the area due to nearby schools so that could help Biden.

[Ferguson97]

I live in a small, highly religious, upper middle-class blue-collar suburb that's 93% white.

Trump won 55-40 in 2016. Romney won 57-41 in 2012. Hugin (Republican, Senate) won 57-41 in 2018. BUT Gottheimer (Democrat, US House) won 54-45.

Trump probably wins, but given Biden's strength in the suburbs he could cut into his lead. Then again, Biden is ideologically closer to Gottheimer than Menendez/Clinton/Obama, so he MIGHT have an outside shot if Trump really screws up.

I'd put money on Trump winning my town though.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It will vote for Trump for sure, but the margin will be telling.  My precinct was 61-32 Trump (slightly less Republican than Williamson County as a whole) and 74-25 Romney.  Bill Lee and Mark Green also both got 61% of the vote here (Blackburn did worse, but still won it by 12 points), so 61% seems like a good baseline.  It was a little bit more Republican again for this year's Congressional primary ballot preference, but I'll say Trump matches his 61% from 2016, with most of the undecideds going to Biden.

61-37 Trump, the same as Lee vs. Dean, seems fair.  I anticipate that Williamson County will look a lot like the Lee vs. Dean race too (65-33 Lee).  But, if Trump drops into the 50s in my precinct, it's probably indicative of a significant Democratic suburban swing (even outside of the rapidly trending Texas suburbs).

EDIT: I do think Hagerty will overperform Trump pretty significantly here (even though it was a very strong Sethi precinct in the primary).  Including downballot races, I'll say something like this:

PRES: Trump 61, Biden 37
SEN: Hagerty 66, Bradshaw 28
HOUSE: Green 64, Sreepada 34
ST HOUSE: Casada 57, Madeira 30, Fiscus 13 (not really sure how strong the Fiscus candidacy will be, but he seems more serious than most Independents)

[Tintrlvr]

It would have to be a North Korea-like election for Trump to win my precinct.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Easily Biden, and Bexar County at large probably  goes >60% Biden

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden should clear 85% of the vote.

[Mexican Wolf]

My precinct voted 58% Trump to 37% Clinton in 2016 after voting 56% Romney to 42% Obama in 2012. My precinct is over 90% white (although it has been slowly diversifying in recent years), outer suburban verging on rural, and mostly conservative.

I expect Trump to win it again, but given how rapidly the Republican party's strength in Chester County has collapsed in the Trump years, it'll probably be noticeably closer than it was in 2016.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Titanium D. Hillary got 96% of the vote in my precinct here in Brooklyn, NY (Trump only got 2.8% of the vote). She also got 79% of the vote overall in Brooklyn.

Biden will get the same percentage as Hillary if not even higher lol. Maybe, Biden will win 97-99% of the vote.

[Nyvin]

Was 52% Trump - 42% Clinton in 2016.
 
I'd expect "some" movement toward Biden this year, but not anywhere near enough to flip it.

[DINGO Joe]

Was 49-45 Obama in 2012, 60-30 Hillary in 2016, 83-17 JBE in 2019. 
I could see trump going sub 20 in the precinct.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden, easily.

[LimoLiberal]

Arlington County, so Biden.

[jamestroll]

My precinct went 67% to 25% for Clinton and 73% to 25% for Northam.

I expected 72 to 26 Biden

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Hillary got 84%, Obama '12 got 90%, so 80-90% Biden.

https://historical.elections.virginia.gov/

[Dereich]

My precinct voted 47.37% Trump/46.15% Hillary. I'd guess it'll go something like 48/46 for Biden.

[they don't love you like i love you]

This got me curious what the strongest Republican ever in my precinct was.

Going back to 2012 since it technically didn't exist prior to that, the answer is randomly enough Chris Fields, the Republican sacrificial lamb against Keith Ellison in 2012. He's the only Republican to clear double digits, with 10.56%. Romney received 8.15% the same year.

The weakest Democratic performance was State Rep Karen Clark in 2014, who received "only" 80.37%. However this was due to a random strong Independence Party performance, who pulled 11.41% to the Republican's 7.91%. District-wide the Republican came in third place too, 82.13-9.57-8.05.

[Roll Roons]

I currently live in DC. Take a guess.

[brucejoel99]

My Broward precinct that went 69-29 Clinton/71-29 Obama/68-32 Obama is undoubtedly Safe Biden.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

My precinct voted about 65-30 for Trump in 2016. I think Trump probably slips below 60% here, but probably not much beyond that.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

My precinct (in Macomb County) went to Trump by 2% in 2016. I'm guessing it'll be around the same this year--maybe down slightly.

[Storr]

White generally lesser educated exburbia (about 25 miles from downtown Charlotte, white more highly educated people tend to live closer to the city, still within Mecklenburg County) with a hydroelectric dam created lake for Trump boaters to have fun fending off the Spanish Armada on warm summer days. The county went 66-30 for Trump in 2016, it will likely be around the same this year. It has only once voted for a Democrat since 1952, Jimmy Carter in 1976. My precinct went 64-31 for Trump, so close to how the county as a whole voted.