What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A more interesting question to me regarding Europe was how the map would look if people voted the same as the USA. Running the numbers by age, race, and education gave me this map:

I don't get how Lazio sticks out in red in this model.
Voters are >95% White as in all of Italy and to my knowledge the share of college graduates is 25%, which is the highest in Italy but still low compared to the United States.
Not to mention Italy's old age (although Lazio is probably younger than the median).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

He gets absolutely demolished. Trump's cultural populism would work pretty well (just like how populism has been in the rise in Europe in general), but his economic positions are way, way to the right of what most Europeans could stomach. Plus many "mainstream conservatives" in Europe could stomach voting for Biden in a way that the "reluctant Republicans" can't.

Does anyone imagine Macron or Merkel voting for Trump over Biden for instance?

The European left is in a God-afwul position, but Trump still would easily lose.

Here would be my very generous ratings for Trump, assuming Trump moderates and modulates his message somewhat (also limiting myself to the EU27+the UK):



Fmr. VP Jean Biden (D-LX) / Senator Carolina Harris (D-ES): 68%, 572 EVs
President Donato Trump (R-IT) / VP Michał Pence (R-PL): 30%, 179 EVs

So basically, Trump would win the Visegrad 4 plus Italy (and only Poland+Hungary would be safe; the Czech Republic and Slovakia would be close).

Oh and I was very generous with Trump here. I think the only countries where he won outright are the 2 Safe ones. The likely ones were close and depend on assumptions you make and the lean ones were ones Trump lost but came close in.

I think my threshold for "Likely" biden was really something like Trump getting 30% of the vote lmao. So this is a map where Trump would seriously overperform; in reality he probably just wins Poland+Hungary.

I mean, this is *extremely* generous.
I cannot see any iteration of Trump that gets 100% of the votes of Lega and Fratelli d'Italia and eveything to their right.
And even if such an iteration existed, it would still not win a two-way election unless you assume that half of M5S or all of FI jumps on board, which is another pretty bold assumption.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Some of this seems very weird to me. Like why would Biden win Bihar but not the rest of the Hindi belt? And Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur of all regions going to Trump? And Lombardy and Piedmont flipping before Sicily/Calabria/Puglia/Basilicata/Molise/Abruzzo? Some of your choices in Egypt and Brazil also seem weird and of course Albania+Kosovo love the American Democratic Party.

Actually Lombardy going to Trump before the South may or may not make sense depending (mostly) on your assumptions about M5S and FI voters. Emilia-Romagna in blue is what does not make sense.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Some of this seems very weird to me. Like why would Biden win Bihar but not the rest of the Hindi belt? And Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur of all regions going to Trump? And Lombardy and Piedmont flipping before Sicily/Calabria/Puglia/Basilicata/Molise/Abruzzo? Some of your choices in Egypt and Brazil also seem weird and of course Albania+Kosovo love the American Democratic Party.

Actually Lombardy going to Trump before the South may or may not make sense depending (mostly) on your assumptions about M5S and FI voters. Emilia-Romagna in blue is what does not make sense.

Wait Emilia-Romagna was in blue? Yeah that's bad. That+Tuscany are literally PD's strongest regions. In a world where Trump has real credibility to win any of Italy then I think it's clear that he would win the South and Northeast, although he could win Lombardy in addition. Southern M5S voters seem to be leaning towards the center-right (or at least away from PD), plus they're just demographically Trumpy. Lombardy at least has Milan which means Trump would have to get 60%+ in Monza, Varese, etc.

No, I can guarantee you that the South and the North trended basically in the same way between the 2018 general and the 2019 European, and if anything PD made massive gains near Naples.
Southern M5S voters may be demographically Trumpy, but they have also been on the receiving end of anti-Southern discrimination (see: Lega before 2015)
Lombardy has Milan, but suburban Milan hosts as many people as the city itself and is prime time Lega country, and also Eastern Lombardy is even more prime time Lega country. How much it would translate into Trump country, I don't know.
It could go either way.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

No, I can guarantee you that the South and the North trended basically in the same way between the 2018 general and the 2019 European, and if anything PD made massive gains near Naples.
Southern M5S voters may be demographically Trumpy, but they have also been on the receiving end of anti-Southern discrimination (see: Lega before 2015)
Lombardy has Milan, but suburban Milan hosts as many people as the city itself and is prime time Lega country, and also Eastern Lombardy is even more prime time Lega country. How much it would translate into Trump country, I don't know.
It could go either way.

Right but you have to layer some sort of American context over this all. There's no history of Anti-Southern-Italy discrimination coming from Trump and the South is rural and deeply populist. Meanwhile, does Trump really have any appeal in Bergamo? I'm skeptical. Anyhow, it's clear that the strongest parts of Italy for Biden are Emilia-Romagna, Toscana, Lazio, and maybe Liguria. Although this question is incredibly interesting because if Trump really is at 30-40 percent support in Italy, he definitely has majority approval in some regions which is very rare in Europe.

One thing you have to remember is that "keep the immigrants out" will likely have more appeal where immigrants are 12% of the population (Lombardy) than where immigrants are 4% of the population (Sicily).
In any case, Biden's best regions would most likely be yours + South Tyrol + Aosta Valley.
On the last part, it's possible, but it's close, as Italy is relatively homogeneous.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

My impression is that the original question can be understood in at least two different ways and this leads to many posts constantly missing the point of the posts they're replying to.

The first interpretation is pretty straightforward: What if the citizens of other countries could vote in the US presidential election while still remaining citizens and inhabitants of their own country. The answer seems pretty straightforward: There are polls, you just need to look at them.

The second interpretation is much less straightforward:
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if they were Americans
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if he ran for head of government in their country.

The answer to the questions of the second interpretation can be a funny exercise, but it depends a lot on the exact question.

Meh.

I don't think the answers to the second interpretation would be meaningfully different from those to the first, unless:

in case 1) you assume that the citizens of the country of choice had been Americans all their life.

in case 2) you assume that Trump reshapes his platform to be fitting to the country of choice. I'd argue that some meaning would be lost in this case, though.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

My impression is that the original question can be understood in at least two different ways and this leads to many posts constantly missing the point of the posts they're replying to.

The first interpretation is pretty straightforward: What if the citizens of other countries could vote in the US presidential election while still remaining citizens and inhabitants of their own country. The answer seems pretty straightforward: There are polls, you just need to look at them.

The second interpretation is much less straightforward:
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if they were Americans
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if he ran for head of government in their country.

The answer to the questions of the second interpretation can be a funny exercise, but it depends a lot on the exact question.

Meh.

I don't think the answers to the second interpretation would be meaningfully different from those to the first, unless:

in case 1) you assume that the citizens of the country of choice had been Americans all their life.

in case 2) you assume that Trump reshapes his platform to be fitting to the country of choice. I'd argue that some meaning would be lost in this case, though.

My main point was that statements like "Trump would win the Veneto" don't make a lot of sense without a specification of the scenario in the first place.

But I think that nationality, citizenship or the place you live in can fundamentally change your opinion of a politician, particularly if that politician is a nationalist or even is hostile against your country.

Platform reshaping or not is an interesting question. Would Trump benefit more from reshaping his platform than Biden? Why? Because Trump is more nationalist on certain things?

Well then I agree with your main point.

I was not suggesting that Trump might benefit more from platform reshaping than Biden necessarily, but that if Trump ran for, say, president of France, his platform would need to be adapted to France (for example, building the wall would not have a meaning anymore, whereas he might need to add a position on the EU).