What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well? (user search)
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  What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?  (Read 4448 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,773


« on: September 07, 2020, 05:11:35 PM »

If they stuck to their current platforms, Trump would not win most of northern England. It would be a blowout for Biden (although I can't imagine he'd be particularly popular; one or more of our minor parties would probably surge). Off of Twitter, a fair portion of cultural conservatives/isolationists here like to compare themselves to Trump to "prove that they're not racist" and all Biden would have to do is invoke the NHS. Just look at how May blew a huge hole in her lead by announcing cuts to entitlements for relatively financially secure pensioners - it was labelled the dementia tax and made the election closer than it otherwise would have been.

I think Trump would hold up best in the south outside of the big cities - Kent, East Sussex, etc, would be strongest, but I could see some resilience in the southwest too (even Cornwall). These places are a lot less bearish about abandoning the welfare state than the post-industrial north.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773


« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2020, 09:42:24 AM »

Trump's approval rating in this country is sub 20%, the idea that he'd win swathes of the North is absurd. But I agree with TiltsAreUnderrated that he'd probably be strongest in places like Essex and coastal communities in the East of England, though not enough to actually win any region.

The approval relates to Trump the person from an outside perspective. Give Trump the Tory leadership and he does just a little worse than Johnson (the worse being the suburbs Johnson managed to hold for the Tories).


Trump would do better with the Tory leadership, but our electorate is much less polarised, even more so now than during the Brexit crisis. Even during that crisis, Labour massively overperformed in large part because of an awful Tory leader.

As someone in favour of single-payer, even I'm not 100% on board with the level of unquestioning support for the way the NHS works in this country, but Conservatives must absolutely commit to supporting it. It's probably more of a state religion than our actual state religion.  I could see Trump shifting economically left outside the confines of the Republican Party, but he would not have the self-discipline to avoid making some statement about defunding bits of it that he found objectionable and that would be instant game over. His social security plans would also infuriate the pensioners who decide most of our elections.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773


« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2020, 10:55:58 AM »

This thread is strange. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular here.

It's not out of line with the transatlantic "Parallels!" punditry, though (and in fairness, Biden would probably be unpopular enough to drive some local Trump haters into his arms). Remember when BBC started referring to Labour's northern seats as the "red wall?"
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773


« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2020, 12:10:17 PM »

This thread is strange. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular here.

This. I don't think you guys realize how much of the world doesn't like Trump. You have to dig deep to find places where he's liked.

Pew has info about the confidence other countries have in Trump, and the picture in Europe isn't particularly pretty.



How the hell is Trump so popular in most of the African countries?

He's not popular; he's trusted to "do the right thing regarding world affairs." Africans have extra reason to be sick of ill-judged US interventions and might prefer Trump's relative isolationism when the only presidents they can compare in living memory have been hawks.
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