What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My deeply unscientific guess:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A more interesting question to me regarding Europe was how the map would look if people voted the same as the USA. Running the numbers by age, race, and education gave me this map:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Trump would win Aisne and Pas-de-Calais in France and Burgenland, Carinthia and Styria in Austria.

No, he would not.

I may have several broken bones, but I cannot let this crap stand.

Trump has max. 5-10% support in Austria and even in the most FPÖ-leaning areas, he wouldn't get more than 10-15% max.

Well, it depends on the premise of the question. Like is this an election where Trump is trying to appeal to Europe from the start, or is it just a random poll of Europeans right now?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Donald Trump would easily win Russia and Slovenia and would likely carry Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Croatia, and Romania as well.

Ehhhhh....

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Trump would lose every single country, I guarantee it. Only in America will the citizenry tolerate such a disgusting human being holding the highest office in the land.

   

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Who’s the bottom left in the original post? (second from bottom in what the quote looks like on my end)

Viktor Orban?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't get how Lazio sticks out in red. Voters are >95% White as in all of Italy and to my knowledge the share of college graduates is 25%, which is the highest in Italy but low compared to the United States.
Not to mention Italy's old age.

That was kind of unscientific on my part. I flipped it red because of how dominant metropolitan Rome is within Lazio+the (comparatively high) college education rate, but you're right in saying that based strictly off race and education, all of Italy should be Trump. Y'all have some catching up to do.

I have to say, Castille-Leon voting for the left as Andalucia votes for the right is extremely weird

I am surprised you get to this result though, Castille-Leon is also one of Spain's most rural areas. To a lesser extent I am also surprised the Balearic Islands would be Trumpist while La Rioja or Cantabria are not.

PS: How would the Canaries vote? (I imagine the 2 towns of Ceuta/Melilla would be diehard trumpist)

Well, a lot of Castille-Leon's population is in the mid-sized cities and it has a much higher college education rate. Similarly, the Balearics are much less educated than La Rioja and Cantabria. I didn't really take local cultural mores into account, and the USA obviously has deviation from the strict race+education rules (ie. PNW and New England vs Deep South.

On paper, the Canaries should be Trumpy but like other tourist destinations (Vegas, Hawaii, etc.) I'd expect it to vote left of its demographics. Ceuta and Melilla, like irl, would vote on racially polarized lines which means Trump would win consistently but nor rack up the vote because of the high Arab population.

I will say that many of Spain's provinces seem pretty close so in a strong Trump victory, Biden would win only Madrid, Catalunya, Pais Vasco, and Navarra, while being favored in Asturias, Cantabria, and La Rioja. On the other side of the equation, Biden could easily win every single region in Spain on a strong night for him. Portugal, on the other hand, should be overwhelming Trump County (it's honestly impressive the far right hasn't found a foothold based on their demographics alone.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).

Some of this seems very weird to me. Like why would Biden win Bihar but not the rest of the Hindi belt? And Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur of all regions going to Trump? And Lombardy and Piedmont flipping before Sicily/Calabria/Puglia/Basilicata/Molise/Abruzzo? Some of your choices in Egypt and Brazil also seem weird and of course Albania+Kosovo love the American Democratic Party.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Some of this seems very weird to me. Like why would Biden win Bihar but not the rest of the Hindi belt? And Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur of all regions going to Trump? And Lombardy and Piedmont flipping before Sicily/Calabria/Puglia/Basilicata/Molise/Abruzzo? Some of your choices in Egypt and Brazil also seem weird and of course Albania+Kosovo love the American Democratic Party.

Actually Lombardy going to Trump before the South may or may not make sense depending (mostly) on your assumptions about M5S and FI voters. Emilia-Romagna in blue is what does not make sense.

Wait Emilia-Romagna was in blue? Yeah that's bad. That+Tuscany are literally PD's strongest regions. In a world where Trump has real credibility to win any of Italy then I think it's clear that he would win the South and Northeast, although he could win Lombardy in addition. Southern M5S voters seem to be leaning towards the center-right (or at least away from PD), plus they're just demographically Trumpy. Lombardy at least has Milan which means Trump would have to get 60%+ in Monza, Varese, etc.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

No, I can guarantee you that the South and the North trended basically in the same way between the 2018 general and the 2019 European, and if anything PD made massive gains near Naples.
Southern M5S voters may be demographically Trumpy, but they have also been on the receiving end of anti-Southern discrimination (see: Lega before 2015)
Lombardy has Milan, but suburban Milan hosts as many people as the city itself and is prime time Lega country, and also Eastern Lombardy is even more prime time Lega country. How much it would translate into Trump country, I don't know.
It could go either way.

Right but you have to layer some sort of American context over this all. There's no history of Anti-Southern-Italy discrimination coming from Trump and the South is rural and deeply populist. Meanwhile, does Trump really have any appeal in Bergamo? I'm skeptical. Anyhow, it's clear that the strongest parts of Italy for Biden are Emilia-Romagna, Toscana, Lazio, and maybe Liguria. Although this question is incredibly interesting because if Trump really is at 30-40 percent support in Italy, he definitely has majority approval in some regions which is very rare in Europe.