What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?

[Former President tack50]

A more interesting question to me regarding Europe was how the map would look if people voted the same as the USA. Running the numbers by age, race, and education gave me this map:

I have to say, Castille-Leon voting for the left as Andalucia votes for the right is extremely weird

I am surprised you get to this result though, Castille-Leon is also one of Spain's most rural areas. To a lesser extent I am also surprised the Balearic Islands would be Trumpist while La Rioja or Cantabria are not.

PS: How would the Canaries vote? (I imagine the 2 towns of Ceuta/Melilla would be diehard trumpist)

[Former President tack50]

Trump's approval rating in this country is sub 20%, the idea that he'd win swathes of the North is absurd. But I agree with TiltsAreUnderrated that he'd probably be strongest in places like Essex and coastal communities in the East of England, though not enough to actually win any region.

Based on even swing and putting the Tories at 20% and Labour at 55% (and leaving the Lib Dems the same as in 2019) you'd get almost a complete wipeout for the Conservatives. Labour 544, SNP as official opposition with 32, Lib Dems 31 seats, Conservatives 21

The 21 Conservative seats would be: North Cornwall, Yeovil, North Dorset, Mid Dorset & North Poole, Christchurch, New Forest East, Meon Valley, Brentwood & Ongar, Castle Point, Rayleigh & Wickford, Maldon, Clacton, SW Norfolk, NE Cambridgeshire, North Norfolk, South Holland & The Deepings, Boston & Skegness, Louth & Horncastle, Brigg & Goole, Aldrige-Brownhills, South Staffordshire

Doing a straight Labour 80%, Conservatives 20% map obviously means Labour sweeps every seat in Britain except the speaker's seat.

[Former President tack50]

Any ideas on how Cyprus would vote?

Judging from the 2019 EU election in Cyprus, as well as the 2016 parliamentary election; titanium Biden and in fact well to the left of Europe at large. If I had to make a rough guess, I'd say 80-20 for Biden.

But we have posters here who are a lot more familiar with Cyprus than I am so take it with a grain of salt.

[Former President tack50]

He gets absolutely demolished. Trump's cultural populism would work pretty well (just like how populism has been in the rise in Europe in general), but his economic positions are way, way to the right of what most Europeans could stomach. Plus many "mainstream conservatives" in Europe could stomach voting for Biden in a way that the "reluctant Republicans" can't.

Does anyone imagine Macron or Merkel voting for Trump over Biden for instance?

The European left is in a God-afwul position, but Trump still would easily lose.

Here would be my very generous ratings for Trump, assuming Trump moderates and modulates his message somewhat (also limiting myself to the EU27+the UK):



Fmr. VP Jean Biden (D-LX) / Senator Carolina Harris (D-ES): 68%, 572 EVs
President Donato Trump (R-IT) / VP Michał Pence (R-PL): 30%, 179 EVs

So basically, Trump would win the Visegrad 4 plus Italy (and only Poland+Hungary would be safe; the Czech Republic and Slovakia would be close).

Oh and I was very generous with Trump here. I think the only countries where he won outright are the 2 Safe ones. The likely ones were close and depend on assumptions you make and the lean ones were ones Trump lost but came close in.

I think my threshold for "Likely" biden was really something like Trump getting 30% of the vote lmao. So this is a map where Trump would seriously overperform; in reality he probably just wins Poland+Hungary.

[Former President tack50]

As for Spain in particular, well Trump would get absolutely demolished, Spain is arguably one of the more left wing countries in Europe even if there are even more left wing ones (like next door Portugal)

In any case, Trump would probably lose all provinces here. The only places where he might have a chance are:

Ceuta: The only place in Spain with US-Style racial polarization and also rather populist, maybe if that polarization holds he could win this but that is dubious

Ávila / Salamanca: The 2 most right wing provinces of Spain and both very rural (especially Ávila), maybe they are conservative enough for Trump to win.

Murcia: Probably Trump's best autonomous community, it is the 3rd most right wing province as well as one of the most "trumpist" (much like the rest of the Spanish southeast). If Trump wins somewhere in Spain, it would be here.

[Former President tack50]

Trump can win every western country except for France thanks to the runoff and Germany cause they love their bureaucrats.

LMAO no.

Even if you restrict yourself to the much easier to achieve criteria of "winning a weak plurality", Trump would not win in most of Western Europe.

Trump can somewhat be compared ot the right populist parties that are increasing across Europe, from Vox to AfD. However these parties rarely are able to win a plurality, let alone lead a governing coalition.

Even with the super weak "win a plurality against a divided field" threshold and modulating his message to be relatable to an audience of the country in question, as of now Trump could really only win in:

France (round 1 only, the runoff would kill him)
Italy (see: Lega currently leading)
Belgium (on a technicality and with a plurality of like 20% of the PV)
Maybe Finland (True Finns are doing well)
Maybe Sweden (SD are doing well)

With the same platform he is running on, I think he would win just in Italy and maybe in Belgium with a weak plurality in the high teens due to the language split

[Former President tack50]

I mean, this is *extremely* generous.
I cannot see any iteration of Trump that gets 100% of the votes of Lega and Fratelli d'Italia and eveything to their right.
And even if such an iteration existed, it would still not win a two-way election unless you assume that half of M5S or all of FI jumps on board, which is another pretty bold assumption.

Oh it absolutely is extremely generous.

For Italy, my guess was that Trump would get 100% of the Lega/FdI vote, somwhere around 50% of the FI vote and like 1/4 of the M5S vote.

Since I was using the 2019 EU elections for reference, Italy would have given Trump just barely below 50% of the vote; which I decided to rank as likely (though on hindsight that would be closer to "Safe" given how I was ranking places like the Netherlands and Belgium).

I used similar estimations all across Europe, giving Trump 100% of the right populist parties vote and around half of the "generic conservative" vote, with few exceptions where I know that not many would vote for Trump (like say Germany). On top of that I basically added quite a bit to the Trump result.

Indeed my ratings are incredibly generous for Trump, a very unrealistic scenario. In reality Trump would get much less than that. I guess he would win Hungary and maybe Poland.

I do think Italy would probably still be a good result for Trump, certainly his best in Western Europe; but that just means Trump gets like 25-30% of the vote instead of 5-10%

[Former President tack50]

Donald Trump would easily win Russia and Slovenia and would likely carry Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Croatia, and Romania as well.

Ireland?

What???

IRELAND???

LOL

Not only is Biden of Irish descent himself, I can think of hardly any countries where Trump would be a worse fit than Ireland. Maybe the Nordic countries and that's about it.

Actually, given recent election results, Trump would perform reasonably well in Scandinavia; particularly in Sweden. Though this still only means getting in the low 20s

The worst fit for Trump would probably be Portugal.

[Former President tack50]

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).

We polled Clinton-Trump in 2016 in Canada, and he lost even Alberta like 60-40.

Can't speak for Canada, but Trump's approval has skyrocketed in Europe.

Of course the previous map showed that Trump's approval is around 25% in Europe but the thing is that in 2016 it was much worse

Clinton-Trump 2016 got polled here as well and the result was 77% Clinton; 3% Trump.

So Trump going from say, 5% approval to 20-25% is a huge increase. Even if he is still super unpopular