What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?
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  What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?
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Author Topic: What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?  (Read 4299 times)
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #75 on: September 08, 2020, 02:32:56 PM »


Would it? South American politics outside of US foreign policy controversies is a pretty big blindspot for me.


Would it? South American politics outside of US foreign policy controversies is a pretty big blindspot for me.

Argentina doesn't exactly strike me as a place that would vote for Trump.
Never mind. According to Pew Research, Trump's approval in Argentina is only 22%.

SOURCE: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/01/08/trump-ratings-remain-low-around-globe-while-views-of-u-s-stay-mostly-favorable/
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« Reply #76 on: September 10, 2020, 04:34:37 PM »

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).



We polled Clinton-Trump in 2016 in Canada, and he lost even Alberta like 60-40.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #77 on: September 10, 2020, 04:47:30 PM »

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).



Now way Trump would win the East Midlands, East Anglia or Switzerland, or even come particularly close.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #78 on: September 10, 2020, 06:59:31 PM »

Scroll a few posts up. I corrected myself.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #79 on: September 10, 2020, 08:04:00 PM »

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).



We polled Clinton-Trump in 2016 in Canada, and he lost even Alberta like 60-40.

Can't speak for Canada, but Trump's approval has skyrocketed in Europe.

Of course the previous map showed that Trump's approval is around 25% in Europe but the thing is that in 2016 it was much worse

Clinton-Trump 2016 got polled here as well and the result was 77% Clinton; 3% Trump.

So Trump going from say, 5% approval to 20-25% is a huge increase. Even if he is still super unpopular
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« Reply #80 on: September 10, 2020, 11:20:37 PM »

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).



I think your Pacific Rim region is too bullish for Biden on balance. Not sure why you have part of Thailand supporting Trump but all of China supporting Biden. Although to be fair, idk if the political cleavage within China neatly maps onto a Trump vs Biden divide. Theoretically, the more dynamic and cosmopolitan “liberal” areas would go to Biden while the more parochial “Maoist” areas would go to Trump.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #81 on: September 11, 2020, 03:51:17 AM »

I'm not sure which regions of the Western country of Europe Trump would do well in, sorry.

Don't forget that Eastern Europe also exists. And he would do very well in most part of it. In Russia he could win almost everywhere, may be - even including Moscow...
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #82 on: September 11, 2020, 03:58:08 AM »

Donald Trump would easily win Russia and Slovenia and would likely carry Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Croatia, and Romania as well.

Ireland?

What???

IRELAND???

LOL

Not only is Biden of Irish descent himself, I can think of hardly any countries where Trump would be a worse fit than Ireland. Maybe the Nordic countries and that's about it.

I think Trump would be a pretty good candidate for Sligo County Council.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #83 on: September 11, 2020, 04:26:50 AM »

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).



Now way Trump would win the East Midlands, East Anglia or Switzerland, or even come particularly close.

Exactly, before the Corona crisis, Trump already only had an approval of 12% in Switzerland. Since then it's probably dropped to 8%.

Judging by the Pew polling that was posted earlier, that would basically mean that Switzerland is pretty much the European country where Trump is the least popular. Which isn't really that surprising seeing as it's one of the few European countries that are clearly becoming more left wing.
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« Reply #84 on: September 11, 2020, 01:51:50 PM »

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).


Wouldn't Argentina vote for Trump?

Would it? South American politics outside of US foreign policy controversies is a pretty big blindspot for me.

I could see the super strong Macri belt running from Buenos Aires to Mendoza being OK for Trump, and I could also maybe see him winning Queensland, Australia.  All of these assume that it's being treated as an election internationally and that both sides are making pitches for the voters.
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palandio
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« Reply #85 on: September 12, 2020, 07:16:31 AM »

My impression is that the original question can be understood in at least two different ways and this leads to many posts constantly missing the point of the posts they're replying to.

The first interpretation is pretty straightforward: What if the citizens of other countries could vote in the US presidential election while still remaining citizens and inhabitants of their own country. The answer seems pretty straightforward: There are polls, you just need to look at them.

The second interpretation is much less straightforward:
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if they were Americans
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if he ran for head of government in their country.

The answer to the questions of the second interpretation can be a funny exercise, but it depends a lot on the exact question.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #86 on: September 12, 2020, 07:59:50 AM »

My impression is that the original question can be understood in at least two different ways and this leads to many posts constantly missing the point of the posts they're replying to.

The first interpretation is pretty straightforward: What if the citizens of other countries could vote in the US presidential election while still remaining citizens and inhabitants of their own country. The answer seems pretty straightforward: There are polls, you just need to look at them.

The second interpretation is much less straightforward:
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if they were Americans
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if he ran for head of government in their country.

The answer to the questions of the second interpretation can be a funny exercise, but it depends a lot on the exact question.

Meh.

I don't think the answers to the second interpretation would be meaningfully different from those to the first, unless:

in case 1) you assume that the citizens of the country of choice had been Americans all their life.

in case 2) you assume that Trump reshapes his platform to be fitting to the country of choice. I'd argue that some meaning would be lost in this case, though.
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palandio
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« Reply #87 on: September 12, 2020, 02:05:57 PM »

My impression is that the original question can be understood in at least two different ways and this leads to many posts constantly missing the point of the posts they're replying to.

The first interpretation is pretty straightforward: What if the citizens of other countries could vote in the US presidential election while still remaining citizens and inhabitants of their own country. The answer seems pretty straightforward: There are polls, you just need to look at them.

The second interpretation is much less straightforward:
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if they were Americans
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if he ran for head of government in their country.

The answer to the questions of the second interpretation can be a funny exercise, but it depends a lot on the exact question.

Meh.

I don't think the answers to the second interpretation would be meaningfully different from those to the first, unless:

in case 1) you assume that the citizens of the country of choice had been Americans all their life.

in case 2) you assume that Trump reshapes his platform to be fitting to the country of choice. I'd argue that some meaning would be lost in this case, though.
My main point was that statements like "Trump would win the Veneto" don't make a lot of sense without a specification of the scenario in the first place.

But I think that nationality, citizenship or the place you live in can fundamentally change your opinion of a politician, particularly if that politician is a nationalist or even is hostile against your country.

Platform reshaping or not is an interesting question. Would Trump benefit more from reshaping his platform than Biden? Why? Because Trump is more nationalist on certain things?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #88 on: September 12, 2020, 02:18:46 PM »

My impression is that the original question can be understood in at least two different ways and this leads to many posts constantly missing the point of the posts they're replying to.

The first interpretation is pretty straightforward: What if the citizens of other countries could vote in the US presidential election while still remaining citizens and inhabitants of their own country. The answer seems pretty straightforward: There are polls, you just need to look at them.

The second interpretation is much less straightforward:
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if they were Americans
- You could ask how many citizens of other countries would vote for Trump if he ran for head of government in their country.

The answer to the questions of the second interpretation can be a funny exercise, but it depends a lot on the exact question.

Meh.

I don't think the answers to the second interpretation would be meaningfully different from those to the first, unless:

in case 1) you assume that the citizens of the country of choice had been Americans all their life.

in case 2) you assume that Trump reshapes his platform to be fitting to the country of choice. I'd argue that some meaning would be lost in this case, though.
My main point was that statements like "Trump would win the Veneto" don't make a lot of sense without a specification of the scenario in the first place.

But I think that nationality, citizenship or the place you live in can fundamentally change your opinion of a politician, particularly if that politician is a nationalist or even is hostile against your country.

Platform reshaping or not is an interesting question. Would Trump benefit more from reshaping his platform than Biden? Why? Because Trump is more nationalist on certain things?

Well then I agree with your main point.

I was not suggesting that Trump might benefit more from platform reshaping than Biden necessarily, but that if Trump ran for, say, president of France, his platform would need to be adapted to France (for example, building the wall would not have a meaning anymore, whereas he might need to add a position on the EU).
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Chips
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« Reply #89 on: September 14, 2020, 09:00:50 PM »

Trump would do well in Russia, Belarus and some other European countries that have populist leaders and heavily anti-immigration/free trade. Poland, Hungary and a few others come to mind there. Trump though gets heavily crushed in Europe overall 62-34%.

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VPH
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« Reply #90 on: September 15, 2020, 12:49:01 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2020, 01:09:54 PM by VPH »

Assuming that he was a part of the political culture for a while and not subject to the typical "we don't like their populists but we do like our own" phenomenon that leads to Trump's bad polling outside the US right now,

In Canada, I think he would do best in a combo of:
-Where Reform did well in 1993 (out west in general but also in some places where the NDP ran strong before in BC)
-Where Doug Ford gained the most in Ontario relative to prior elections (industrial SW Ontario)
-Where PANB performs best in NB
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Samof94
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« Reply #91 on: September 27, 2020, 07:16:45 AM »

He’d have no chance in New Zealand.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #92 on: September 27, 2020, 10:44:39 AM »

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).


Albania would vote Biden.
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