What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?

[Skye]

This thread is strange. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular here.

This. I don't think you guys realize how much of the world doesn't like Trump. You have to dig deep to find places where he's liked.

Pew has info about the confidence other countries have in Trump, and the picture in Europe isn't particularly pretty.

[Jens]

Trump can win every western country except for France thanks to the runoff and Germany cause they love their bureaucrats.

There is not a snowball’s change in Hell that Trump would win any of the
Nordic countries. It would be an upset if he got more that 15 %

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

This thread is strange. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular here.

This. I don't think you guys realize how much of the world doesn't like Trump. You have to dig deep to find places where he's liked.

Pew has info about the confidence other countries have in Trump, and the picture in Europe isn't particularly pretty.

How the hell is Trump so popular in most of the African countries?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This thread is strange. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular here.

This. I don't think you guys realize how much of the world doesn't like Trump. You have to dig deep to find places where he's liked.

Pew has info about the confidence other countries have in Trump, and the picture in Europe isn't particularly pretty.

How the hell is Trump so popular in most of the African countries?

He's not popular; he's trusted to "do the right thing regarding world affairs." Africans have extra reason to be sick of ill-judged US interventions and might prefer Trump's relative isolationism when the only presidents they can compare in living memory have been hawks.

[Pick Up the Phone]

In Germany, he would get crushed and destroyed. Perhaps 15-20%, probably even less. I really have to agree with what has been written by my fellow posters: It's hard to overstate how deeply unpopular Trump is in large parts of Europe. I know die-hard conservatives and self-declared reactionaries and even these people despise him for lacking political acumen and intellectual refinement; I guess that he would only perform well with certain segments of the far-right and perhaps with some protest voters. Concerning the EU: Barring one or two countries in Eastern Europe, I don't see him winning anywhere to be honest. Safe Biden.

[Crumpets]

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).

[Crumpets]

This thread is strange. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular here.

This. I don't think you guys realize how much of the world doesn't like Trump. You have to dig deep to find places where he's liked.

Pew has info about the confidence other countries have in Trump, and the picture in Europe isn't particularly pretty.

-snip-

How the hell is Trump so popular in most of the African countries?

He's not popular; he's trusted to "do the right thing regarding world affairs." Africans have extra reason to be sick of ill-judged US interventions and might prefer Trump's relative isolationism when the only presidents they can compare in living memory have been hawks.

IIRC, US presidents are just always relatively popular in sub-saharan Africa for some reason. At least this has been true of both Obama and Bush. Not sure before that.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A more interesting question to me regarding Europe was how the map would look if people voted the same as the USA. Running the numbers by age, race, and education gave me this map:

I don't get how Lazio sticks out in red in this model.
Voters are >95% White as in all of Italy and to my knowledge the share of college graduates is 25%, which is the highest in Italy but still low compared to the United States.
Not to mention Italy's old age (although Lazio is probably younger than the median).

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).

Wouldn't Argentina vote for Trump?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

He gets absolutely demolished. Trump's cultural populism would work pretty well (just like how populism has been in the rise in Europe in general), but his economic positions are way, way to the right of what most Europeans could stomach. Plus many "mainstream conservatives" in Europe could stomach voting for Biden in a way that the "reluctant Republicans" can't.

Does anyone imagine Macron or Merkel voting for Trump over Biden for instance?

The European left is in a God-afwul position, but Trump still would easily lose.

Here would be my very generous ratings for Trump, assuming Trump moderates and modulates his message somewhat (also limiting myself to the EU27+the UK):



Fmr. VP Jean Biden (D-LX) / Senator Carolina Harris (D-ES): 68%, 572 EVs
President Donato Trump (R-IT) / VP Michał Pence (R-PL): 30%, 179 EVs

So basically, Trump would win the Visegrad 4 plus Italy (and only Poland+Hungary would be safe; the Czech Republic and Slovakia would be close).

Oh and I was very generous with Trump here. I think the only countries where he won outright are the 2 Safe ones. The likely ones were close and depend on assumptions you make and the lean ones were ones Trump lost but came close in.

I think my threshold for "Likely" biden was really something like Trump getting 30% of the vote lmao. So this is a map where Trump would seriously overperform; in reality he probably just wins Poland+Hungary.

I mean, this is *extremely* generous.
I cannot see any iteration of Trump that gets 100% of the votes of Lega and Fratelli d'Italia and eveything to their right.
And even if such an iteration existed, it would still not win a two-way election unless you assume that half of M5S or all of FI jumps on board, which is another pretty bold assumption.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't get how Lazio sticks out in red. Voters are >95% White as in all of Italy and to my knowledge the share of college graduates is 25%, which is the highest in Italy but low compared to the United States.
Not to mention Italy's old age.

That was kind of unscientific on my part. I flipped it red because of how dominant metropolitan Rome is within Lazio+the (comparatively high) college education rate, but you're right in saying that based strictly off race and education, all of Italy should be Trump. Y'all have some catching up to do.

I have to say, Castille-Leon voting for the left as Andalucia votes for the right is extremely weird

I am surprised you get to this result though, Castille-Leon is also one of Spain's most rural areas. To a lesser extent I am also surprised the Balearic Islands would be Trumpist while La Rioja or Cantabria are not.

PS: How would the Canaries vote? (I imagine the 2 towns of Ceuta/Melilla would be diehard trumpist)

Well, a lot of Castille-Leon's population is in the mid-sized cities and it has a much higher college education rate. Similarly, the Balearics are much less educated than La Rioja and Cantabria. I didn't really take local cultural mores into account, and the USA obviously has deviation from the strict race+education rules (ie. PNW and New England vs Deep South.

On paper, the Canaries should be Trumpy but like other tourist destinations (Vegas, Hawaii, etc.) I'd expect it to vote left of its demographics. Ceuta and Melilla, like irl, would vote on racially polarized lines which means Trump would win consistently but nor rack up the vote because of the high Arab population.

I will say that many of Spain's provinces seem pretty close so in a strong Trump victory, Biden would win only Madrid, Catalunya, Pais Vasco, and Navarra, while being favored in Asturias, Cantabria, and La Rioja. On the other side of the equation, Biden could easily win every single region in Spain on a strong night for him. Portugal, on the other hand, should be overwhelming Trump County (it's honestly impressive the far right hasn't found a foothold based on their demographics alone.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).

Some of this seems very weird to me. Like why would Biden win Bihar but not the rest of the Hindi belt? And Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur of all regions going to Trump? And Lombardy and Piedmont flipping before Sicily/Calabria/Puglia/Basilicata/Molise/Abruzzo? Some of your choices in Egypt and Brazil also seem weird and of course Albania+Kosovo love the American Democratic Party.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Some of this seems very weird to me. Like why would Biden win Bihar but not the rest of the Hindi belt? And Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur of all regions going to Trump? And Lombardy and Piedmont flipping before Sicily/Calabria/Puglia/Basilicata/Molise/Abruzzo? Some of your choices in Egypt and Brazil also seem weird and of course Albania+Kosovo love the American Democratic Party.

Actually Lombardy going to Trump before the South may or may not make sense depending (mostly) on your assumptions about M5S and FI voters. Emilia-Romagna in blue is what does not make sense.

[President Johnson]

In Germany, he would get crushed and destroyed. Perhaps 15-20%, probably even less. I really have to agree with what has been written by my fellow posters: It's hard to overstate how deeply unpopular Trump is in large parts of Europe. I know die-hard conservatives and self-declared reactionaries and even these people despise him for lacking political acumen and intellectual refinement; I guess that he would only perform well with certain segments of the far-right and perhaps with some protest voters. Concerning the EU: Barring one or two countries in Eastern Europe, I don't see him winning anywhere to be honest. Safe Biden.

I think it would actually be something like 89-11% in Germany in a binary choice. There is almost nobody here who likes this guy. A recent poll found Biden leading 86-6% as preferred US president. Trump not even gets all AfD supporters.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Some of this seems very weird to me. Like why would Biden win Bihar but not the rest of the Hindi belt? And Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur of all regions going to Trump? And Lombardy and Piedmont flipping before Sicily/Calabria/Puglia/Basilicata/Molise/Abruzzo? Some of your choices in Egypt and Brazil also seem weird and of course Albania+Kosovo love the American Democratic Party.

Actually Lombardy going to Trump before the South may or may not make sense depending (mostly) on your assumptions about M5S and FI voters. Emilia-Romagna in blue is what does not make sense.

Wait Emilia-Romagna was in blue? Yeah that's bad. That+Tuscany are literally PD's strongest regions. In a world where Trump has real credibility to win any of Italy then I think it's clear that he would win the South and Northeast, although he could win Lombardy in addition. Southern M5S voters seem to be leaning towards the center-right (or at least away from PD), plus they're just demographically Trumpy. Lombardy at least has Milan which means Trump would have to get 60%+ in Monza, Varese, etc.

[Pick Up the Phone]

In Germany, he would get crushed and destroyed. Perhaps 15-20%, probably even less. I really have to agree with what has been written by my fellow posters: It's hard to overstate how deeply unpopular Trump is in large parts of Europe. I know die-hard conservatives and self-declared reactionaries and even these people despise him for lacking political acumen and intellectual refinement; I guess that he would only perform well with certain segments of the far-right and perhaps with some protest voters. Concerning the EU: Barring one or two countries in Eastern Europe, I don't see him winning anywhere to be honest. Safe Biden.

I think it would actually be something like 89-11% in Germany in a binary choice. There is almost nobody here who likes this guy. A recent poll found Biden leading 86-6% as preferred US president. Trump not even gets all AfD supporters.

Very well possible and would not surprise me in the slightest. Would still be curious for Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg results in such a scenario. Below 2%?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Some of this seems very weird to me. Like why would Biden win Bihar but not the rest of the Hindi belt? And Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur of all regions going to Trump? And Lombardy and Piedmont flipping before Sicily/Calabria/Puglia/Basilicata/Molise/Abruzzo? Some of your choices in Egypt and Brazil also seem weird and of course Albania+Kosovo love the American Democratic Party.

Actually Lombardy going to Trump before the South may or may not make sense depending (mostly) on your assumptions about M5S and FI voters. Emilia-Romagna in blue is what does not make sense.

Wait Emilia-Romagna was in blue? Yeah that's bad. That+Tuscany are literally PD's strongest regions. In a world where Trump has real credibility to win any of Italy then I think it's clear that he would win the South and Northeast, although he could win Lombardy in addition. Southern M5S voters seem to be leaning towards the center-right (or at least away from PD), plus they're just demographically Trumpy. Lombardy at least has Milan which means Trump would have to get 60%+ in Monza, Varese, etc.

No, I can guarantee you that the South and the North trended basically in the same way between the 2018 general and the 2019 European, and if anything PD made massive gains near Naples.
Southern M5S voters may be demographically Trumpy, but they have also been on the receiving end of anti-Southern discrimination (see: Lega before 2015)
Lombardy has Milan, but suburban Milan hosts as many people as the city itself and is prime time Lega country, and also Eastern Lombardy is even more prime time Lega country. How much it would translate into Trump country, I don't know.
It could go either way.

[Former President tack50]

I mean, this is *extremely* generous.
I cannot see any iteration of Trump that gets 100% of the votes of Lega and Fratelli d'Italia and eveything to their right.
And even if such an iteration existed, it would still not win a two-way election unless you assume that half of M5S or all of FI jumps on board, which is another pretty bold assumption.

Oh it absolutely is extremely generous.

For Italy, my guess was that Trump would get 100% of the Lega/FdI vote, somwhere around 50% of the FI vote and like 1/4 of the M5S vote.

Since I was using the 2019 EU elections for reference, Italy would have given Trump just barely below 50% of the vote; which I decided to rank as likely (though on hindsight that would be closer to "Safe" given how I was ranking places like the Netherlands and Belgium).

I used similar estimations all across Europe, giving Trump 100% of the right populist parties vote and around half of the "generic conservative" vote, with few exceptions where I know that not many would vote for Trump (like say Germany). On top of that I basically added quite a bit to the Trump result.

Indeed my ratings are incredibly generous for Trump, a very unrealistic scenario. In reality Trump would get much less than that. I guess he would win Hungary and maybe Poland.

I do think Italy would probably still be a good result for Trump, certainly his best in Western Europe; but that just means Trump gets like 25-30% of the vote instead of 5-10%

[Crumpets]

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).

Wouldn't Argentina vote for Trump?

Would it? South American politics outside of US foreign policy controversies is a pretty big blindspot for me.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

No, I can guarantee you that the South and the North trended basically in the same way between the 2018 general and the 2019 European, and if anything PD made massive gains near Naples.
Southern M5S voters may be demographically Trumpy, but they have also been on the receiving end of anti-Southern discrimination (see: Lega before 2015)
Lombardy has Milan, but suburban Milan hosts as many people as the city itself and is prime time Lega country, and also Eastern Lombardy is even more prime time Lega country. How much it would translate into Trump country, I don't know.
It could go either way.

Right but you have to layer some sort of American context over this all. There's no history of Anti-Southern-Italy discrimination coming from Trump and the South is rural and deeply populist. Meanwhile, does Trump really have any appeal in Bergamo? I'm skeptical. Anyhow, it's clear that the strongest parts of Italy for Biden are Emilia-Romagna, Toscana, Lazio, and maybe Liguria. Although this question is incredibly interesting because if Trump really is at 30-40 percent support in Italy, he definitely has majority approval in some regions which is very rare in Europe.

[Skye]

Here's my 100% subjective "gut feeling" map of a worldwide Trump-Biden election. The hypothetical question is "Who would you like to be the President of the United States?" and the election is administered by each country/region's local authorities (hence some random authoritarian states having weird results that wouldn't otherwise be in line with their populace).

Wouldn't Argentina vote for Trump?

Would it? South American politics outside of US foreign policy controversies is a pretty big blindspot for me.

Argentina doesn't exactly strike me as a place that would vote for Trump.

[Alben Barkley]

Donald Trump would easily win Russia and Slovenia and would likely carry Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Croatia, and Romania as well.

Ireland?

What???

IRELAND???

LOL

Not only is Biden of Irish descent himself, I can think of hardly any countries where Trump would be a worse fit than Ireland. Maybe the Nordic countries and that's about it.

[Former President tack50]

Donald Trump would easily win Russia and Slovenia and would likely carry Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Croatia, and Romania as well.

Ireland?

What???

IRELAND???

LOL

Not only is Biden of Irish descent himself, I can think of hardly any countries where Trump would be a worse fit than Ireland. Maybe the Nordic countries and that's about it.

Actually, given recent election results, Trump would perform reasonably well in Scandinavia; particularly in Sweden. Though this still only means getting in the low 20s

The worst fit for Trump would probably be Portugal.

[Crumpets]

Donald Trump would easily win Russia and Slovenia and would likely carry Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Croatia, and Romania as well.

Ireland?

What???

IRELAND???

LOL

Not only is Biden of Irish descent himself, I can think of hardly any countries where Trump would be a worse fit than Ireland. Maybe the Nordic countries and that's about it.

Oh I wish I was in the land of Guiness
The Easter Rising lives within us.
Look away, look away, look away, Ireland.
From County Cork where I was born,
To Inishtrahull in Doneghal.
Look away, look away, look away, Ireland.

Oh I wish I was in Éire,
Hooray! Hooray!
In Derry I will take my stand,
To live and die in Ireland.
Away, away, across the sea in Ireland,
Away, away, across the sea in Ireland.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

No, I can guarantee you that the South and the North trended basically in the same way between the 2018 general and the 2019 European, and if anything PD made massive gains near Naples.
Southern M5S voters may be demographically Trumpy, but they have also been on the receiving end of anti-Southern discrimination (see: Lega before 2015)
Lombardy has Milan, but suburban Milan hosts as many people as the city itself and is prime time Lega country, and also Eastern Lombardy is even more prime time Lega country. How much it would translate into Trump country, I don't know.
It could go either way.

Right but you have to layer some sort of American context over this all. There's no history of Anti-Southern-Italy discrimination coming from Trump and the South is rural and deeply populist. Meanwhile, does Trump really have any appeal in Bergamo? I'm skeptical. Anyhow, it's clear that the strongest parts of Italy for Biden are Emilia-Romagna, Toscana, Lazio, and maybe Liguria. Although this question is incredibly interesting because if Trump really is at 30-40 percent support in Italy, he definitely has majority approval in some regions which is very rare in Europe.

One thing you have to remember is that "keep the immigrants out" will likely have more appeal where immigrants are 12% of the population (Lombardy) than where immigrants are 4% of the population (Sicily).
In any case, Biden's best regions would most likely be yours + South Tyrol + Aosta Valley.
On the last part, it's possible, but it's close, as Italy is relatively homogeneous.