🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October
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  🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October
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Poll
Question: Who would you support in a snap election?
#1
GD (government, catch-all, pro EU/NATO)
 
#2
UNM (major opposition, lib. cons., pro EU/NATO)
 
#3
EG (lib. conservative, pro EU/NATO)
 
#4
Girchi (libertarian, pro EU/NATO)
 
#5
APG (national conservative, pro Russia)
 
#6
Labor (conservative socialist, pro EU/NATO)
 
#7
Strategy (moderate, pro EU/NATO)
 
#8
Citizens (centrist, pro EU/NATO)
 
#9
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 16

Author Topic: 🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October  (Read 7613 times)
Astatine
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2020, 08:55:11 PM »

Saakashvili claimed that there were massive irregularities in several precincts (proven by a shaky video?). I was firstly really skeptical of that, since Saakashvili is really delusional, but after talkling to Georgian Facebook friends with different political leanings, it seemed that some results are questionable.

In many precincts, the results issued by the electoral commission simply don't add up, both for proportional and FPTP vote. Hundreds of those result certificates were uploaded to Facebook where basic maths is being ignored, and apparently, this to benefit of GD. As far as I understood, this was crucial in at least one district, where a 2000 vote majority of a GD candidate seemed to appear out of nowhere and therefore a runoff was avoided. Plus, DMUG only failed the threshold by a few hundred votes, which - considering the numerous irregularities - could cost another party a seat.

Interestingly, the server of the election commission, where all certificates can be seen, is down right now.
While I don't buy Saakashvili's initial claims of an opposition victory (he claimed that exit polls were rigged and results rigged, one exit poll showed GD at 41 %, others above 50, so this is a ridiculous claim), the irregularities seem suspicious at least and considering how narrow GD's majority is (as of now 77/150 seats of which are 62 proportional and 15 FPTP), it is something to watch on.

I am not sure about this, but it was said in some Facebook posts that local election commissions are usually made up of both government and opposition party affiliates, but that results can be overruled by a majority. As this is anecdotal information, I would put a question mark behind that, but this just creating more suspicion.

So yeah, next week will be full of protests.

I wonder whether they will escalate if the GD government forbids them due to Covid.
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Astatine
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« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2020, 04:13:51 PM »

The situation is getting more tense. All opposition have announced they'd boycott their seats and not take them.

Meanwhile, PM Gakha Gakaria (who is not that important since Ivanishvili is the guy in charge) has been tested positive for Covid.
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Astatine
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« Reply #27 on: November 26, 2020, 04:30:38 PM »

The runoff on Saturday ended up with the GD sweeping all seats, ascending to a total count of 90 deputies. The opposition boycotted the elections as expected, and turnout dropped from 56 to 26 percent.

Anyways, the country is stuck in a gridlock as of now. Opposition party leaders met the US and EU ambassadors, stating they will not work constructively in Parliament unless snap elections are called for 2021. Calls by other diplomats such as the German ambassador who urged the opposition parties to take their seats were dismissed and criticized, accusing them to be siding with GD.

Meanwhile, protests have been going, partially also violating newly imposed Covid restrictions, deepening the division between both sides.

The current situation is nearly impossible to solve unless GD approves of snap elections. It is questionable whether they might not accelerate polarization, as the campaigns will likely be extremely nasty. And who knows whether riggery might be claimed again?

Anyways, in the case of Georgia, you can really make an argument for both sides - GD and UNM+their satellite parties - being equally responsible for the current situation. UNM corruption and increasing authoritarianism in their governmental time wounded the Georgian society, with GD's numerous attempts for power grabbing such as removing any checks and balances from the presidential office are not helpful by any means.

Sad to see such a beautiful country being stuck with such conflicts. I doubt that the wounds of division will heal unless both Saakashvili as well as Ivanishvili combined with their respective close allies leave the political stage.
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Astatine
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« Reply #28 on: December 15, 2020, 09:38:07 AM »

An update on the most recent developments, as the chaos is getting worse:

The Parliament convened last week, with only GD members being present. President Salome Zurabishvili has condemned the opposition parties for their refusal to take their seats. A bloc of 5 opposition parties (UNM, EG, Lelo, Strategy and Labour) requested the annulation of their lists, meaning that in case of a resignation of an MP, the seat would remain unseated. APG, Girchi, Citizens and Republicans - they apparently gained 2 seats over the UNM list, didn't know they formed an electoral alliance - did exclude themselves from the memorandum, but won't take their seats either.
Girchi's refusal to join the memorandum has led to some intra-party turmoils.
The Election Commission granted their request today, resulting in a Parliament that will definitely have no major opposition. It will likely reconfirm Ivanishvili handpicked PM Gara Gakharia in short time.

The accusations of voter fraud are being investigated. GD officials stated that if the investigation shows that at least 1 % of the votes were rigged, snap elections would be called.

The Supreme Council of the Autonomous Region of Adjara has convened as well, and the opposition boycotts it too.

Meanwhile, UNM is in a state of complete disarray. Saakashvili disappeared from the political stage shortly after the elections, but the mess his involvement has created remains.
Grigol Vashadze, who has led the UNM since 2017 and was their presidential candidate in 2018, has announced today that he will leave his party. He attacked UNM for disrespecting diplomats who tried to negotiate between the parties and has been under pressure for some time now as he preferred UNM to take their seats in Parliament.
GD took advantage of Vashadze's turn against his former party, stating that it clearly shows UNM has no intention to orient towards EU/NATO, but rather to destabilize Georgia. Additionally, the government threatens to not allow UNM to run in the next elections as the party is formally led by a criminal with a Ukrainian passport.
So UNM is a mess right now, and it clearly shows how they never recovered from Saakashvili's departure from politics. The party had put their hopes into Vashadze and David Bakradze - both have left UNM by now, Bakradze subsequently founded his own party, EG.
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Astatine
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« Reply #29 on: December 18, 2020, 07:15:24 AM »

GD has introduced a bill into Parliament that gives vibes of Saakashvili's attempts to undermine democracy in his second term. It includes the following demands:

- Stripping the boycotting opposition parties of their state funding
- Restricting political ad airtime for those parties
- Consideration of cancelling election registration for UNM

This is major blow and shows that GD is just as authoritarian as UNM used to be, with the only exception that GD has much more financial resources and already succeeded in all attempts of power-grabbing (unlike UNM, having been voted out).
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #30 on: December 18, 2020, 07:58:13 AM »

GD has introduced a bill into Parliament that gives vibes of Saakashvili's attempts to undermine democracy in his second term. It includes the following demands:

- Stripping the boycotting opposition parties of their state funding
- Restricting political ad airtime for those parties
- Consideration of cancelling election registration for UNM

This is major blow and shows that GD is just as authoritarian as UNM used to be, with the only exception that GD has much more financial resources and already succeeded in all attempts of power-grabbing (unlike UNM, having been voted out).

And this is......surprising?
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Astatine
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« Reply #31 on: January 05, 2021, 01:53:34 AM »

The opposition parties have had some tough days. GD PM Gakha Gakaria was re-appointed to his office, and former EG candidate for mayor of Tbilisi - Elene Khoshtaria - left her party, announcing the creation of a new political force.

Same goes for Girchi: The party split into the People's Front of Judea and the Judean People's Fro... eh, into "Girchi" and "More Freedom Girchi". Their former presidential candidate and leader Zurab Japaridze had some personal feuds with the party's three other MPs (albeit none of them will take their seats as of now).
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Astatine
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« Reply #32 on: January 10, 2021, 03:55:47 PM »

Not only UNM, EG and Girchi are in disarray, but also APG: 3 of its 4 MPs requested the suspension of their seats, including party leader Irma Inashvili, but the successors on the list (including the remaining MP) all defected, leaving APG without representation in Parliament. The newly founded party is called European Socialist Party, and although it retains APG's position on economic and social policy, it took a U-turn on foreign policy and stands for further Western integration.
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Astatine
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« Reply #33 on: January 11, 2021, 03:35:03 AM »

Ivanishvili just resigned as GD leader to retire completely from politics.

We'll see how that plays out. GD is full of his protegées, and whenever he disapproved of someone, they were easily replaced. So we'll see what happens, but this is quite a bombshell announcement.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #34 on: January 11, 2021, 09:22:23 AM »

Not only UNM, EG and Girchi are in disarray, but also APG: 3 of its 4 MPs requested the suspension of their seats, including party leader Irma Inashvili, but the successors on the list (including the remaining MP) all defected, leaving APG without representation in Parliament. The newly founded party is called European Socialist Party, and although it retains APG's position on economic and social policy, it took a U-turn on foreign policy and stands for further Western integration.
APG had positions on economic policy to retain?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #35 on: January 11, 2021, 09:51:35 AM »

Ivanishvili just resigned as GD leader to retire completely from politics.

We'll see how that plays out. GD is full of his protegées, and whenever he disapproved of someone, they were easily replaced. So we'll see what happens, but this is quite a bombshell announcement.

Don't these totally personality based parties often collapse once the figurehead is gone?
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Astatine
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« Reply #36 on: January 11, 2021, 10:13:39 AM »

Ivanishvili just resigned as GD leader to retire completely from politics.

We'll see how that plays out. GD is full of his protegées, and whenever he disapproved of someone, they were easily replaced. So we'll see what happens, but this is quite a bombshell announcement.

Don't these totally personality based parties often collapse once the figurehead is gone?
Usually they do, although Ivanishvili already retired from politics for some time (2013-2018), but kept control of his party as éminence grise. I guess that will be the same this time around, and GD has a common enemy in the form of UNM. He will probably remain its largest donor as well.

Still, it is almost inevitable that some MPs will defect, but the majority will not be in danger.

Not only UNM, EG and Girchi are in disarray, but also APG: 3 of its 4 MPs requested the suspension of their seats, including party leader Irma Inashvili, but the successors on the list (including the remaining MP) all defected, leaving APG without representation in Parliament. The newly founded party is called European Socialist Party, and although it retains APG's position on economic and social policy, it took a U-turn on foreign policy and stands for further Western integration.
APG had positions on economic policy to retain?

You got me there Smiley
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Astatine
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« Reply #37 on: February 18, 2021, 08:14:47 AM »
« Edited: February 18, 2021, 03:17:35 PM by Astatine »

And here we go again with GD's attempts to power-grab: UNM Chairman Nika Melia was detained by court in Tbilisi. Melia was part of anti-governmental protests against their increasing authoritarianism in 2019 after which he was forced to wear a monitoring bracelet, which he removed last year somewhen.

His detention led to PM Giorgi Gakharia's resignation. He opposes the detention citing that it would increase polarization. Oppositionial politicians describe the actions as politically motivated.

With Maia Tskitishvili taking over as acting PM, Georgia is one out of two Republics worldwide (the other being Estonia), where both the incumbent President and Head of Government are female.

Ah, and Gakharia apparently left GD as well.

His successor has just been nominated, it's going to be Irakli Garibashvili, who succeeded Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2013 but resigned after two years in office. He made a comeback to the political stage in 2019 when he was appointed Secretary of Defence.
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Astatine
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« Reply #38 on: February 19, 2021, 08:26:34 PM »

The nomination of Irakli Garibashvili is a clear sign of the GD not aiming any compromises but fueling division. Garibashvili, a confidante of Ivanishvili, had a quite tumultuous term as PM:

- He is a hardliner when it comes to opposing UNM, calling them a criminal organization (well, not necessarily wrong), proposing to erase them from the political radar and condoning violence against them.
- He accused UNM of organizing LGBT marches to undermine Georgian society and said that the oppositional TV channel Rustavi 2 is complotting with UNM in promoting sodomy.
- He actively tried to purge Ivanishvili critics from GD and the government coalition, leading to the Free Democratic Party returning to the opposition benches.
- Members of his family are accused of corruption and bribery, such as his father-in-law who was head of a police district.
- Under his government, the presidential office was stripped of any responsibilities since President Giorgi Margvelashvili did not end up being an Ivanishvili puppet.
- When he served as Interior Minister, a revenge porn video of an illegally recorded gay threesome was leaked, leading to the resignation of a government critical chief prosecutor only to replace him with a close ally of Garibashvili, who is a GD consultant now.

He was such a terrible PM that GD dropped from 65 % in polling (November 2013) to 21 % (December 2015), 12 % behind UNM. He resigned after intra-party pressure and was replaced with Giorgi Kvirikashvili, under whom GD stabilized again and went on to win a 2nd term in government.

His appointment is nothing but a provocation but meanwhile Ivanishvili puppet President Salome Zurabishvili continues to call for "unity" and an "end of division". She's a bit like Kevin McCarthy in that matter.

With Garibashvili back as head of government soon, short-time acting PM Maia Tskitishvili announced not to be part of the incoming government.
Giorgi Gakharia's farewell post on Facebook received over 128 thousand likes (remember: Georgia has a population of about 3.5 million, so that's quite a lot!) and he gets lots of praise for his resignation which is often described as courageous, even by opposition politicians. I wouldn't wonder if he started an own political project that could actually be successful in defining itself as serious opposition to an increasingly authoritarian GD (since he made a clear cut) and a corrupt UNM along with its splinter parties.
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Astatine
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« Reply #39 on: February 23, 2021, 06:49:57 AM »

UNM leader Nika Melia has been forcefully arrested this morning (after he was set free on demand of Giorgi Gakharia just before tendering his resignation) together with 21 UNM officials, just shortly after Irakli Garibashvili was formally confirmed as PM. He also announced that the GD will not seek any compromise deals with "the radical opposition".

Garibashvili's successor as PM, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, and former foreign minister Mikhail Janelidze criticized the arrest and called their own party to consider snap elections.

Welcome to a new chapter of "Georgia in disarray"!
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #40 on: February 23, 2021, 10:36:26 AM »

UNM leader Nika Melia has been forcefully arrested this morning (after he was set free on demand of Giorgi Gakharia just before tendering his resignation) together with 21 UNM officials, just shortly after Irakli Garibashvili was formally confirmed as PM. He also announced that the GD will not seek any compromise deals with "the radical opposition".

Garibashvili's successor as PM, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, and former foreign minister Mikhail Janelidze criticized the arrest and called their own party to consider snap elections.

Welcome to a new chapter of "Georgia in disarray"!
the monarchy should be restored.
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Astatine
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« Reply #41 on: February 23, 2021, 10:53:24 AM »

UNM leader Nika Melia has been forcefully arrested this morning (after he was set free on demand of Giorgi Gakharia just before tendering his resignation) together with 21 UNM officials, just shortly after Irakli Garibashvili was formally confirmed as PM. He also announced that the GD will not seek any compromise deals with "the radical opposition".

Garibashvili's successor as PM, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, and former foreign minister Mikhail Janelidze criticized the arrest and called their own party to consider snap elections.

Welcome to a new chapter of "Georgia in disarray"!
the monarchy should be restored.
Nah, Georgia is going a step backwards already, she doesn't need to go two.
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Astatine
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« Reply #42 on: April 07, 2021, 10:16:40 AM »



First post-election poll!
It was conducted by IRI, not NDI as indicated, and also provides other interesting numbers:





The whole poll is available here: https://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/iri_poll_presentation-georgia_february_2021_1.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1mE0WyKgHFk9gYuohb9D4bCr8YcS7Dyl0QjtnvKvojQ_dH84W9ok6fztg
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Astatine
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« Reply #43 on: May 13, 2021, 01:29:52 PM »

So, some things have changed since April:

- The EU brokered a deal with the Georgian government: If the GD receives less than 43 % in this years' local elections, GD will agree to hold snap elections. This was a major breakthrough. Additionally, UNM leader Nika Melia was freed from jail thanks to the deal. I didn't believe in GD's ability to compromise and we'll see whether they will actually keep their promise (assuming they get less than 47 % in the local elections), but it is a first step

- The opposition has been split on whether to actually enter Parliament or not. UNM is divided on this issue (an MP just left the party today), and some Lelo and EG MPs united to form a new parliamentary group and assume their seats. Victory for GD.

- The ultimate Estrella-Astatine political coverage crossover: Former Slovak Economy Minister Vazil Hudák has been appointed to the role of governmental investment advisor.
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Astatine
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« Reply #44 on: May 16, 2021, 03:53:57 PM »

https://civil.ge/archives/419860?fbclid=IwAR0nxkhXf3D2fwsGl6aby-LxoYCNsK0wKkkWGbrOxa41v4zueE7bTctANI0

Quote
15 Georgian political parties agreed to fight to eliminate discrimination and violence against LGBTQ citizens with all mechanisms at their disposal, Tbilisi Pride, a local organization uniting LGBTQ and rights activists announced on May 16.

The signatories include the United National Movement, the largest opposition party, European Georgia, right libertarian Girchi – New Political Center and Girchi – More Freedom parties, Republican Party, Strategy Aghmashenebeli, Lelo, Elene Khoshtaria’s Droa movement, Free Democrats, Victorious Georgia, Progress and Freedom, Law and Justice, the Reformer, United Georgia and ex-MP Eka Beselia’s For Justice party.

Tbilisi Pride said the parties agreed to defend the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression of all citizens irrespective of their sexual orientation and gender identity. The parties also agreed not to allow their representatives to use hate speech and incite social strife based on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity.

That's a damn major thing for LGBTI rights in Georgia and shows that - especially in Eastern Europe - PSE parties (GD) are not necessarily more likely to support LGBTI rights than EPP parties (UNM).
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Astatine
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« Reply #45 on: June 29, 2021, 03:36:35 PM »

Some updates:

Former PM Giorgi Gakharia's new party is called For Georgia (FG) and somewhere in the center between UNM and GD. For Georgia strongly favors EU integration and runs on an anti-corruption platform. First polls have the party in 3rd place:





If repeated in the local elections this year, a result like this would mean snap elections.
Ah, and the UNM deputies finally assumed their parliamentary seats.
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Astatine
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« Reply #46 on: July 05, 2021, 05:59:01 PM »

Well, Tbilisi Pride was supposed to take place this week.
It turned into a fiasco.

Far-right groups, Orthodox conservatives and pro-Russian protesters rioted in front of the Georgian Parliamentary building, with law enforcement doing nothing. The office of the Pride March organizers was rampaged, they also received several death threats and EU and pride flags were destroyed.
There were numerous attacks against journalists and the anti-gay crowd even attacked a foreigner who happened to wear an ear ring.

Representatives of the Orthodox Church stated Pride was worse than the occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, because the latter could be reversed at least while "propaganda of homosexuality" inevitably ruins the Georgian society.

And the government?

Sees a conspiracy behind it. Of course, it was UNM which made things escalate and Saakashvili is behind it. Blablabla.
The same as always, and the Prime Minister blames the victims of course, because the organization was unreasonable and they risked the confrontation.

See for yourself:





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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #47 on: July 05, 2021, 09:23:19 PM »

How the monarchy restoration movement going?
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Astatine
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« Reply #48 on: July 29, 2021, 04:25:06 AM »

Georgian Dream has officially become nuts.

To sum up, following the failed Pride March that led to the death of one journalist and massive criticism by US and EU, Garibashvili still blamed the opposition and the LGBT activists for the results. There were mass demonstrations against the government in solidarity with the LGBT community.

Being confronted with increased pressure and a high chance that a united opposition plus Gakharia's party would win the local elections in fall, GD just withdrew from the EU-Georgia deal which solved the parliamentary crisis. According to the deal, opposition MPs would assume their seats in Parliament and recognize the election results in exchange for the GD agreeing to hold snap elections if they fall below 43 % in the local elections. Even UNM MPs agreed to assume their seats after initial hesitation.

Now GD breaks the pledge for no reason but some standardly repeated Saakashvili conspiracies, and this move will not help the country moving closer to the EU.

GD is increasingly becoming an oligarch version of Fidesz on steroids.
How tf doesn't the European PES of which GD is an observer member care at all about what's been going on?
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Astatine
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« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2021, 05:58:59 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2021, 06:10:13 PM by The D in CDU stands for disarray »

Oh well, this is gonna be fun tomorrow. The campaigns for the local elections were the usual divise sh#tshow both GD and UNM are known for, with the GD accusing former PM Giorgi Gakharia to have a cocaine problem.

Now, one day ahead of the vote, the bomb that all were waiting for for several months exploded: Former President Mikhail Saakashvili, after many announcements of returning to his home country, finally entered Georgia - Of course, this would turn into a spectacle in all ways.

Before returning to Georgia, Saakashvili announced new details about his private life. He has left former First Lady Sandra Roelofs to form a family with the Ukrainian MP Liza Yasko. Then, he announced early that he entered the territory of Georgia, while the government denied those claims and as usual, GD accused Saakashvili/UNM of lying and all... the usual playbook. Until it came out, he actually entered the country after 8 years - And got detained immediately!


Source: agenda.ge/IPN


Saakashvili called on his supporters to protest tomorrow to defend the integrity of the elections. The government obviously celebrates that their main opponent finally got detained, and President Salome Zurabishvili has already announced she wouldn't ever pardon Saakashvili (after being a more critical voice of GD in recent months, unusual!), but I wouldn't be so sure of that. Remember that her re-election bid completely depends on GD, as the popular presidential votes were abolished in a constitutional reform (and presidential terms were extended), replaced by an unelected and unaccountable electoral college. So she might just listen to her conscience depending on the incoming developments.

Saakashvili wants to start a hunger strike now according to media reports - And with this maybe most crucial development in Georgian politics in years, tomorrow's local elections are completely unpredictable. UNM might benefit since voters are electrified their idol is back, and while Saakashvili is still very unpopular among many Georgians, GD has been delivering a sh#tshow in the last months, with all kinds of arrogance, conspiracies, obstruction of the press and plain lies. But GD's biggest nemesis coming back might also help them. And who knows whether tomorrow's election will even be an integral one?

My gut feeling tells me that this will benefit both UNM and GD, to the expense of the smaller opposition parties.
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