🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October

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Astatine:
Georgia elects a new Parliament on 31 October this year - and as half-Georgian who is familiar to politics there to a certain degree, I decided to do a thread about it.

Background:

Georgia gained independence in 1991 from the Soviet Union. The first President elected was Sviad Gamzakhurdia, who was a staunch nationalist and opposed regional autonomy leading to conflicts with the ethnic minorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia (which is often referred to as "Tskhinvali region" in Georgia) and to some degree in Adjara (mainly Muslim Georgians). He was overthrown after less than one year and replaced by a military government, leading to a civil war which is way to complicated to be explained in detail (in which Gamzakhurdia died under quite mysterious circumstances), but it included several brutal massacres on both sides, the most prominent one being the ethnic cleansing of Abkhazia in the fall of Sokhumi in 1993. Russia's role in this war is one of the reasons why the relationship between both countries have been tense.

During the civil war, Abkhazia and South Ossetia gained de-facto independence, while Adjara was largely independent from Georgia doing their own things under an authoritarian ruler called Aslan Abashidze. In 1995, former Soviet Secretary of State Eduard Shevardnadze became President and as usual for many post-Soviet countries, the economy was completely ruined, corruption and criminality were spreading and both nationalists still backing Gamzakhurdia and autonomists in other regions (for instance Svanetia) were destabilizing the government. Shevardnadze was reelected in 2000 in a fraud election.

In 2003, rigged parliamentary elections lead to an uprising leading to the downfall of Eduard Shevardnadze, the Rose Revolution, he eventually resigned and in recall elections, the United National Movement party, a liberal-conservative party, scored a landslide victory. Their leader, Mikhail Saakashvili, was elected President after a short interim term of Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze and managed to fully reintegrate Adjara into the Georgian state in 2004 (Abashidze's regime was held alive by Russia until Putin withdrew his support). In his term, the economy boomed and the widespread corruption was basically abolished. Saakashvili was a strong ally of US President George W. Bush (there is even a George Bush Avenue in Georgia's capital Tbilisi!) and his goal was to integrate Georgia into NATO and EU, with this being broad popular consensus.

During Saakashvili's first term, one of allies, Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania, mysteriously died and with increasing dissatisfaction and demonstrations against authoritarian tendencies of his government, he offered his resignation and ran again for President. His then-ally Nino Burjanadze took over as President again. In the 2008 elections, he was elected comfortably, although opposition claimed voter fraud (…interestingly, one of his opponents – philanthropist Badri Patarkazishvili - also died shortly after the election…). Relations between Abkhazia/South Ossetia (backed by Russia) and Georgia remained tense, and after provocations by Russia, Georgia declared war on South Ossetia which basically was a shot into Georgia’s own knee, as Georgia lost control over all of the territories. Russia recognized both as independent countries and foreign relations have been completely disrupted henceforth. Due to the war, Nino Burjanadze broke with her former political ally Saakashvili.

In his second term, Saakashvili became increasingly authoritarian with several mass protests being organized against him. Several opposition parties (conservatives, liberals, social democrats) united to form the “Georgian Dream” coalition which was backed by businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili (who is the richest man in Georgia), leading to a defeat of UNM in the 2012 parliamentary elections. A constitutional amendment was passed in meantime switching Georgia from a presidential to semi-presidential republic, and Saakashvili hoped to become Prime Minister after his term would expire in 2013. The cohabitation was a tense time since both men detest each other.

In 2013, an Ivanishvili ally became President (Giorgi Margvelashvili) and Ivanishvili subsequently resigned as Prime Minister, but still continuing to be the man in charge. He was officially retired but dictated governmental policies. GD itself is not really that much ideologically different from UNM, and turned out to end up the same way as UNM did with its tendency for authoritarianism, leading to several formerly allied parties leaving the coalition (including the Free Democrats – my Mum’s best friend used to be the party leader’s roommate!). The government charged Saakashvili with several crimes ranging from corruption to involvement in murder and whatsoever, and he retracted his citizenship, becoming Governor of Odessa, then feuding with Petro Poroshenko, almost jumping off a roof, coming back to Ukraine again and almost becoming the country’s deputy Prime Minister.

In the 2016 elections, UNM and GD both suffered losses, but none of the partied split from GD made it into Parliament. In this election, a pro-Russian force entered Parliament. In the following years, the economy was quite mediocre and dissatisfaction with GD grew, but considering the many corruption cases in which UNM was involved, the opposition never really gained traction leading to several UNM members leaving their party and forming the “European Georgia” caucus, which is basically UNM light with less corruption and less favorable attitude towards Saakashvili. Dissatisfaction with the government grew, especially due to the voting system (Mixed MMP) which lead to a 3/4-majority of GD in spite of them winning under 50 % of the votes in 2016. A presidential election in the meantime was won by GD backed candidate Salome Surabishvili who succeeded the increasingly anti-Ivanishvili President Margvelashvili who became politically isolated due to several vetoes, and although it was technically “free”, it was not really fair since media has a clear bias towards Ivanishvili and his allies. Additionally, GD stripped any power away from the presidency to ensure that the opposition would not block their agenda.

The protests lead to the resignation of the Prime Minister (after Ivanishvili’s resignation, there were several ones who I consider quite irrelevant since firstly, none of them was killed and secondly, Ivanishvili is the man in charge) and to a change of the voting system. The number of districts was reduced and now there is just a 1 % threshold – We will see a lot of diversity in the next Parliament. Ah, and by the way, our old friend Saakashvili came back from the political dead (he didn’t/doesn’t even have a Georgian citizenship, who knows what country he is citizen of now…), because today he was declared UNM’s candidate for prime minister - although he is a convicted criminal in his home country.

Besides, relations to Russia have not really improved and it seems increasingly unlikely that South Ossetia and Abkhazia will ever return to Georgia, albeit that is the goal of almost all of Georgia's parties. And the whole story about Sviad Gamzakhurdia is not over yet, there are new investigations about his death.

In the next post, I will go into detail about the current political parties…

Astatine:
Before introducing the political parties, I should note that Georgia is a social conservative country which is extremely religious. Homophobia is also widespread, even among younger generations. So social issues such as same-sex marriage etc. are not really debated. Pro-EU and Pro-NATO policies are also consensus, it is just often personal rivalry resulting in a polarized country. The polling aggregate is the average of three polls conducted in July and August. It should be noted that many polls have a high number of undecided voters. And note: When speaking of “Economic liberalism”, I speak from a European perspective.

Georgian Dream (GD)
Leader: Bidzina Ivanishvili
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Social democracy/Centrism, Social conservatism
Polling: 41 % (2016: 48.7 %)
Georgian Dream has no real ideology, but is often described as rather center-left in spite of being socially conservative (they actually implemented a ban on same-sex marriage in constitution). GD is basically under full control of Bidzina Ivanishvili, and whoever stands in his way, will get sacked, just like President Margvelashvili.
The party has been governing for 8 years now and in spite of some fatigue among voters of GD, the recent (quite well-regarded) Covid-19 response has boosted GD's chances of winning a new term. GD will continue to seek for integration within EU and NATO, to prosecute UNM members for crimes and to spend money for the poor, especially in rural areas (after Tbilisi was the party's best region in 2012, they performed worse there and increased their margin in the rural areas). It seems as of now as they don't need a coalition partner, because that could be a bit more tricky.

United National Movement (UNM)
Leader: Mikhail Saakashvili
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Economic liberalism, Social conservatism
Polling: 17 % (2016: 27.1 %)
UNM has been on decline since 2003, and according to most polls, this is not going to change - although they were conducted before nomination of highly polarizing political figure Saakashvili. UNM is more pro-business than GD, but socially about as conservative (maybe slightly more moderate) and definitely at least as corrupt as GD, likely much more. UNM is very popular among many due to their messed up term 2008-12, for which many party members still face court proceedings (although UNM claims they're politically motivated). UNM is not as isolated as in 2016 and will run joint candidates with other anti-Ivanishvili parties (e.g. EG), but will have a hard time stopping their continues decline. UNM is quite radical in being anti-Ivanishvili and regularly likes to claim fraud everywhere.

European Georgia (EG)
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Economic liberalism, Social conservatism
Leader: David Bakradze
Polling: 6 % (did not run in 2016)
European Georgia is basically UNM light with less corruption and more pragmatism. Unlike UNM, they favor contesting elections instead of boycotting them. David Bakradze was UNM's presidential candidate in 2013 and one of the most prominent politicians of UNM. His personal appeal could bring EG some seats, but in long-term, it is questionable whether the party can survive (they have 19 seats as of now while UNM has 7, still UNM leads in polling). It reminds a bit of the FPÖ/BZÖ split in Austria in 2008.

Alliance of Patriots of Georgia (APG)
Leader: Irma Inashvili
Ideology: pro Russia, Socialism, Social conservatism/nationalism
Polling: 4 % (2016: 5.0 %)
APG is a completely anti-mainstream party and it very much seems as if they will never ever be anywhere but in opposition. APG is pro-Russian, anti-EU and anti-NATO, emphasizing Christianity as unifier of both Russia and Georgia. Many Georgians consider APG as traitors due to their support of Russia, but they could benefit from a small, but increasing number of Georgians who feel like entering EU and NATO will never happen.

Lelo
Leader: Mamuka Khazaradze/David Usupashvili
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Centrism, “Moderate”
Polling: 3 % (did not run in 2016)
This alliance of several smaller centrist and liberal parties includes several former Ivanishvili allies who turned against him and – surprise, surprise! – face charges for different crimes. David Usupashvili was Speaker of the Georgian Parliament for four years and member of the long traditioned Republican Party, which does not run this year or under Lelo banner (can’t information about them…). They are mainstream on most issues, want to break the two-party system and are relatively moderate on social stances in comparison to most other parties.  

Georgian Labour Party (GLP)
Leader: Shalva Natelashvili
Ideology: Joke // pro EU/pro NATO, Socialism, Social conservatism
Polling: 3 % (2016: 3.1 %)
GLP call themselves socialists but in that way that they have a favorable attitude towards Stalin. Their leader Shalva Natelashvili is considered a real joke among most Georgians. Actually, in 2008, they signed a cooperation with German satire party “Die PARTEI”…

Girchi (“pine cone”)
Leader: Zurab “Girchi” Japaridze
Ideology: pro Western but Eurosceptic, Economic libertarianism, Libertarianism
Polling: 2 % (did not run in 2016)
Girchi is a quite interesting party. They are libertarian as well as anti-Church and in Georgia’s politics, this is a remarkable outstanding feature. Girchi is especially popular among younger voters – They filed a lawsuit which effectively legalized cannabis consume and founded an own church, to which anyone can apply as priest to avoid military service which is compulsory for men excluding churchmen. They are more Eurosceptic than most other parties, but still advocate integration in EU and NATO.

Democratic Movement / United Georgia (DMUG)
Leader: Nino Burjanadze
Ideology: pro Russia, Economic nationalism, Social conservatism
Polling: 1 % (2016: 3.5 %)
DMUG is basically Nino Burjanadze, who once was a Saakashvili ally and liberal/conservative reformist, two (short-)term interim President, turning into a nationalist advocating strong ties to Russia. Burjanadze’s personal popularity has been on decline for years: In 2013, she received 10 % in the presidential election, in 2016 DMUG got 3.5 % for parliament and now it seems like they’re close to irrelevancy after having failed the 5 % threshold in 2016. If they don’t get 1 % and thus some seats, Burjanadze’s career will effectively be over.

Citizens
Leader: Aleko Elishasvili
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Centrism?, “Moderate”?
Polling: 1 % (did not run in 2016)
The Citizen party joined the UNM/EG alliance for district candidates, but left it shortly after and accused the other parties of being pro-Russian in disguise. Appears to be another more radical UNM copy.

Assuming this were to be the actual result (excluding other parties), the proportional seats (120) would be allocated like this:
GD: 62-65
UNM: 26-27
EG: 9
APG: 6
Lelo: 4-5
GLP: 4-5
Girchi: 3
DMUG: 1-2
Citizens: 1-2

The 30 seats allocated according to districts are harder to predict, but I'd guess GD would sweep most... So the Parliament of 150 members would have a (narrow) GD majority, down from the more than 100 MPs they got in 2016. If GD fails to secure a majority, it is very hard to see the opposition allying against them due to ideological differences.

PSOL:
Can you tell us more about the Georgian Labor Party?

Astatine:
Quote from: PSOL on September 07, 2020, 05:17:21 PM

Can you tell us more about the Georgian Labor Party?


The Georgian Labor Party is basically a kind of personality cult (like most Georgian parties) around Shalva Natelashvili, who has been leading the party for more than 25 years now. He is a kind of eccentric person, being largerly seen as quite unserious and trying to do anything for attention. All of my Georgian relatives and friends I asked about him say he should not be taken seriously. He has always been an opposition activist and his party actually - as far as I know - did never participate in government.

In 2003, SLP became largest party in the Tbilisi local election, but he refused to become Mayor and offered this position to Mikheil Saakashvili. I guess this cost him a lot of credibility since it appears like he always demands change but as soon as he is in position to assume responsibility he denies. Still, because he says what he means, his approval rating is not bad (in 2014: 44 appr./35. disappr.).

Some key points about SLP's platform and Natelashvili:

1.) They favor Western integration just like most of the other parties and are very much anti-Russia. Still, Natelashvili is very skeptical of Turkey, claiming that "The entire coastal area from Sarpi to Kobuleti has been occupied by Turkey".
2.) Free the country from corruption and influence of oligarchs. Natelashvili accuses other GD of being pro-Russian and bought by oligarchs. He also claims that voter fraud is still a thing to some certain degree - A point where OSCE would disagree, at least to that degree that Natelashvili claims.
3.) They condemned the Rose Revolution back in 2003 (a very unpopular stance at that time considering its popular support), although Natelashvili basically paved the way for Saakashvili to become leader of the opposition and considered him an "illegitimate president".
4.) Although the SLP cooperated with other opposition forces in advance of the 2008 snap election, Natelashvili spontaneously declared his own candidacy claiming that “[he] can not rely on anyone, except of [him]self, when the Georgian President’s position matters.” He also accused the opposition of copying his program.
5.) Natelashvili supported a constitutional monarchy as of 2008.
6.) He promised free electricity and gas in 2008 and wanted to make businesses pay for it while cutting taxes for them - a stance completely unrealistic, especially when taking into account that back then economy was in process of recovery and this would not really be favorable towards that. Additionally, he wanted to give 1.000 Lari to every born child and cut forest fees and agricultural taxes.
7.) On foreign immigration Natelashvili said: “Raids by illegal migrant workers, who spread like mushrooms, will be resisted. We don't have enough jobs for ourselves, so we cannot give them to others.” Generally, he is a populist: Ahead of the 2018 presidential elections, he scored 2nd on number of hate speech while campaigning, especially against immigrants.
8.) Plus, Natelashvili is homophobic, saying that "Historians will remember not that he [Bidzina Ivanishvili] built Trinity Cathedral, but that he had antidiscrimination law adopted and held a gay parade, at least he did not hinder it." plus "We see how this issue is being addressed in the West; [homosexuality] has been removed from the registry as a disease and now the fight is underway to legalize them as families and give them the right to adopt a child. Similar processes have been launched by certain international forces in the world, so that to turn morphine and other drugs into daily use consumer products" - Although this position is quite mainstream in Georgia and less radical than for instance DMUG's platform.
9.) In 2008, the German satire party "Die PARTEI" signed a cooperation treaty with SLP and Natelashvili was inviting press, claiming it is a parliamentary party. This was a genius move by Die PARTEI - It is really just satiric and still, Natelashvili didn't research or anything and signed the cooperation.
10.) At least from what could be derived from an interview, SLP seems to be supportive of women, albeit I couldn't find anything about stances on abortion.

So although SLP might have some well intentions, but in total, after all things and statements accumulated in 25 years of their existence, they should not be taken too seriously. I guess SLP could be compared a bit to the Italian 5 Star Movement stuck in its early stages from what I know about it (if you read this, Battista Minola, correct me please, I really don't know much about them!). Natelashvili himself reminds me of a mix of Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard.

Some interviews and sources in English:
https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=16635
https://www.labour.ge/en/news/article/14700--halva-atelashvili-ighting-for-political-change-in-eorgia
https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=16455
https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=5962

And here is a link to a study of Georgian parties and politicians using hate speech, quite interesting: http://mdfgeorgia.ge/uploads/library/101/file/eng/Hate_speech_eng_rep.pdf

FEMA Camp Administrator:
Thanks a lot for posting this. Hopefully I'll do my own catching up on this topic on my own time. I've been slacking on my Eurasia watching of late.

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