🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Mike88]

With the government just one week in office, there's already a minister under "suspicion":

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1778171378572927477

Searches at the Cascais Chamber. Pinto Luz consultancy investigated in a second investigation

The Judiciary Police raided the City Hall building of Cascais city, Lisbon district, due to an ongoing investigation surrounding the City Hall's own production of surgical masks during the Covid-19 pandemic, using equipments from a Chinese company and supplying other municipalities. This was done in a building requalified by the City and then sold to same Chinese company that gave the mask equipments by the base price. Current Infrastructure's minister, Miguel Pinto Luz, was the deputy mayor during this deal but it seems that the case surrounding him is another one: There is accusations that during his 2019-2020 PSD leadership campaign, he used the Cascais City marketing agency for his campaign with City Hall money. The police also asked the PSD documents regarding that leadership campaign. Pinto Luz, however, says he has proof that he paid himself for the marketing services. The police said they just "collected information" and there are no formal suspects. The complaints were filed by PCP a long time ago.

[Mike88]

Former PM Costa's inquiry "leaves" the Supreme Court and goes to the Department of Investigation of the Public Prosecutor:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1778437082949530039

CNN ALERT || The Supreme Court of Justice decided this Thursday to refer the investigation into former Prime Minister António Costa to the DCIAP.

The idea had been "floated" by Attorney-General Lucília Gago, but now it's official: The Supreme Court has refered the inquiry into former PM António Costa's role in the case that brought down his government, last November 2023, to the Departement of Investigation of the Public Prosecutor (DCIAP). The Court decided that as Costa is no longer Prime Minister, his case must now have the same treatment as any other ordinary citizen. His inquiry now basically goes back to square one as prosecutors will now have to analyse the case from scratch, meaning that a decision may take even longer.

[Mike88]

1st day of the Government's program debate: Montenegro announces inclusion of 60 policies from Opposition parties, plus tax cuts, while the Opposition calls him arrogant.

With two motions of rejection agaisnt his program, from BE and PCP, PM Montenegro entered in the Parliamentary debate with a speech in which he announced the inclusion of 60 policies from Opposition parties. He started the speech by throwing "shade" towards the PS, saying he did not reach power by "backroom deals" but by a direct mandate from the people and then he started listing the policies he proposes: Income tax cuts until the 8th bracket, negociations with teachers and police officers for higher wages, school exam in paper rather than in digital format, repeal of several housing policies from the previous PS government and an emergency plan for the NHS in 60 days. He said he's open to dialogue with all parties, but put "limits" to parties, especially PS and CHEGA, accusing the first to wanting to force the government to resolve in 60 days what the PS wasn't able to resolve in 3,050 days. And to CHEGA, Montenegro said that to them that there aren't "good or bad Portuguese" and that he rejects the speech of hate and radicalization. In the parties responses, PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos accused Montenegro of being "arrogant" and that he doesn't understand why the PSD is asking for the PS support after rejecting the previous 9 PS budgets since 2015. Shortly after, PNS pressed the government to propose a motion of confidence. André Ventura, CHEGA leader, started ranting against Montenegro accusing him of wanting to "fall today" and accused the Government of blackmailing CHEGA. In response, Montenegro said that Ventura's tone shows he's not ready for high office. IL said they were disappointed with the government program, while BE accused the government of wanting to give "big jackpots" to special interests. PCP also criticized the government's program, and proposed tax cuts on electricity and gas. Rui Tavares, Livre leader, criticized Montenegro's posture of "approve now, talk later", while PAN also criticized the lack of "dialogue" from the government, challenging the government to sit down with all parties.

Tomorrow, parties will close arguments and vote on the motions of rejection.

[Mike88]

2nd day of the Government's program debate: Parliament rejects the motions of rejection against Montenegro's program.

Montenegro's government has now passed in Parliament, as MPs rejected the motions of rejection against the government's program. This morning, parties and the government gave their final arguments in the debate: Foreign affairs minister Paulo Rangel, in behalf of the government, said that negotiations weren't mandatory for the Government's program, but that it's only the base of those negotiations and said that the criticisms towards the 60 opposition policies in the program are unfair. The PS said they would vote "against the motions", even though they would later abstain, saying they will not be a "blockade opposition" and proposed 5 major policies from VAT reduction to end of tolls in several highways. Ventura's speech was heckled several times as he railed against the "invasion of immigrants" and accused the AD minority of governing with a PS budget challenging Montenegro to present an amending budget. IL said, again, that the program fell short, while BE said it was vague, incoherent and fragile. PCP said that voting in favour of the AD program is becoming "imprisoned" to the government, while Livre talked about foreign affairs by challenging Montenegro to defend a two-state solution in Israel and Palestine. CDS downplayed the motions, labeling them as "competition" between the left, while PAN warned about climate challenges. The results of the motions of rejection:

PCP motion:

138 Against (PSD, CHEGA, IL, CDS, PAN)
  13 In favour (BE, PCP, Livre)
  77 Abstention (PS)
    2 Absent (1 PS, 1 CHEGA)

BE motion:

137 Against (PSD, CHEGA, IL, CDS)
  13 In favour (BE, PCP, Livre)
  78 Abstention (PS, PAN)
    2 Absent (1 PS, 1 CHEGA)

[Mike88]

Confusion regarding income tax cuts: Finance minister says around 200 million euros, which seems to contradict Montenegro's speech.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1778932487072202856

After all, Montenegro's IRS shock is six times lower than Costa's: Pedro Nuno accuses Government of "scam"

During the government program debate, PM Montenegro said that the government would cut 1,5 billion euros in taxes in 2024. Pundits and the media assumed that this would be a new 1,5 billion tax cut, but this wasn't the whole reality, as this includes the 1,3 billion tax cut from former PM Costa's 2024 budget adding a new 200 million cut, sort of, as the final numbers are still being calculated. The announcement was made by Finance minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento on a RTP1 interview, which generated much confusion, so much so that one of Montenegro's deputy ministers, Manuel Castro Almeida, had to acknowledged that there may have been an "error in communication", although pointing that a "storm was being made in a glass of water".

The media and the Opposition, however, are pissed: PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos accused the government of "fraud and scam" and many newspapers editors are furious with the Government because they printed headlines of the "big tax cut" that wasn't what it seemed like, and now look like "fools". Pundits also criticize the government's blunt failure in communication and deception.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like a good start for the new regime

[Mike88]

Looks like a good start for the new regime

The PSD using the "Costa playbook" of announcing big things that in reality are basically nothing, is funny.

Besides the blunt miscalculation of the government's communication, there are two things behind this: First, there is no money. The budget numbers until February are showing that the surplus is falling and it could well turn into a deficit real soon. And second, besides tax cuts, the government promised to increase wages to teachers, nurses, doctors, police officers and others, so, there are a lot of people to please at the same time, and money doesn't stretch. Plus, then there's the supplementary budget pressure, as PS and CHEGA want to force that budget in order to be "free" to reject the 2025 budget, but Montenegro doesn't like that idea and wants to put all preasure in the 2025 budget, forcing PS and CHEGA to let the budget pass. Balancing fiscal responsibility with growing spending when the economy doesn't give back, it's like squaring the circle.

[Mike88]

Meta restricts CHEGA's Facebook account for 10 years. Ventura blames other parties and promises to file a legal complaint:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1779486350846152804

Facebook restricts Chega's account for 10 years

Meta, Facebook's owner, has restricted CHEGA's facebook account for 10 years. In the next decade, the party cannot post images, videos or make live contents. The "last straw" seems to have been the posting of a video of a woman, of gypsy ethnicity, who violently shaved her mother's hair in order to kidnap her two daughters that were under the custody of their grandmother by a Court ruling. CHEGA and Ventura has condemned Meta's decision saying they are being "censored" and that the freedom of choice is being "taken away" from the Portuguese. The party also blames other parties for the restrictions imposed and promises to send the case to the Courts and to Parliament.

[Mike88]

PM Montenegro's first foreign visit: PM goes to Madrid and doesn't side with Spain in recognizing Palestine, and refuses to comment the "IRSgate".

In his first visit overseas, PM Montenegro headed to the Spanish capital to meet with PM Pedro Sanchéz. In a press conference after the meeting, Sanchéz thanked Montenegro for picking Spain as his first visit as Portuguese PM, which Montenegro replied that no crisis will damage the relationship between both countries. Regarding the issue of the recognition of a Palestinian State, Montenegro didn't side with Spain and defends that Palestine's recognition as a State should be based on a "multilateral basis, within the European Union and within the United Nations". Regarding the ongoing "IRSgate", Montenegro didn't make many comments, only saying he would not discuss internal issues in foreign land, but insisted that he will govern to fulfill his electoral promisses and will not govern by or for newspaper headlines and openings of news hours.

[Mike88]

Madeira election campaign: 14 Parties/coalitions will be on the ballot in the 26 May snap election:

Abbreviation; Name; Ideology

ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right
CH - CHEGA, far-right
IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right
JPP - Together for the People, center
L - Livre, center-left
MPT - Earth Party, center-right
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing
PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right
PS - Socialist Party, center-left
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left
RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic

[Mike88]

Nominee for the deputy to the Finance minister removes herself after it was reported she is under trial for fraud in EU funds:

https://twitter.com/rtpnoticias/status/1780205244061794498

After the media reported that the Minister of Finance hired a former PSD MP who is being tried for the crime of fraud as deputy, Patrícia Dantas herself decided not to take on those roles.

The story broke this morning in Correio da Manhã newspaper. The nominee for deputy to the finance minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, Patrícia Dantas, is under trial in a long running case regarding fraud in EU funds, since 2017. Just a few hours after the story broke, the finance ministry "dropped" Ms. Dantas and sent a press release saying that she had decided to not assume the role of deputy to the minister.

[Mike88]

Headlines of the day:

- Appeals Court "erases" the Prosecutor's case in the Operation that brought down Costa's government:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1780569156439384162

The Lisbon Court of Appeal decided this Wednesday (17) the appeals of the Public Ministry and defendants Vítor Escária and Diogo Lacerda Machado, within the scope of Operation Influencer.

In another "blow" to the Public Prosecutor, the Lisbon Court of Appeal has ruled that the Prosecutor, in the Operation "Influencer" that brought down António Costa's government last November 2023, has no case and that there is no evidence of crimes being committed. The Court says that Prosecutors failed to prove evidence supporting any crime and eliminated basically all the penalties against the suspects. The Court, however, points that the lack of legislation on lobbying can create or envisage dubious situations like those given by the Prosecutor, and criticized government officials for their informality and for using restaurants in order to do business. The question is now, where does this leave António Costa? His well known run for Presidency of the European Council just had a major "boost", but will the Prosecutor speed up/close his investigation or put it "on hold" as it's customary? We'll see;

- The ongoing "IRSgate" had another episode today: The Opposition forced an emergency debate in Parliament in order to press the government on the confusion around tax cuts. A feud began before the debate as the Finance minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, would not be present due to a trip to the IMF in Washington and the government would be represented by the Parliamentary Affairs minister, Pedro Duarte. The Opposition criticized the absence of the Finance minister and pressed on the accusations of "hoax", "manipulation" and "illusionism". On their part, the Government pressed that they didn't lie and that the tax cut will be above 300 million euros. However, the Opposition wasn't convinced with the minister's announcement and also got few answers as minister Pedro Duarte didn't answer the majority of questions from Opposition parties;

- And in small parties news, a weird one: Joana Amaral Dias will be ADN's main candidate for the European Parliament elections:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1780318137306751178

Joana Amaral Dias is the head of the ADN list for the European elections

The party that surprised everybody on the 10 March general elections, ADN, surprised us again. Why? Because their main candidate in the EP elections will be Joana Amaral Dias, a well known pundit/public figure. And why is this pick such a surprise? Because of Joana Amaral Dias' political background: Started as a BE member and MP, supported Mário Soares' presidential bid in 2006, led a leftwing coalition in 2015, then led a center-right candidacy for Lisbon mayor in 2017 and will now lead a list of a party that, well, makes CHEGA look moderate. On a video on social media, she said she couldn't "be able to sit idly by" faced by the "injustices", "threats to peace and to freedoms". Quite a shift this one;

[crals]

Joana Amaral Dias is the living proof that the horseshoe theory is real.

[Mike88]

Joana Amaral Dias is the living proof that the horseshoe theory is real.

That's true. It will be funny if in the debates she positions herself against some of ADN's policies.

Also, this is hilarious: "Zombie" party PURP accuses Amaral Dias of betrayal because she promised to lead their party list first.

Fernando Loureiro, founder of the United Party of Retirees and Pensioners (PURP), says he is "outraged" and claims to have been "betrayed" and victim of a "plot", after Joana Amaral Dias was announced as head of the party's list National Democratic Alternative (ADN) to the European elections. The former president of PURP also claims that the party, currently called (A)TUA, underwent a transformation, with the promise that the psychologist and former deputy would represent the political force in the June elections, which did not materialize.
(...)
Fernando Loureiro says he was contacted by people who were represented on behalf of Joana Amaral Dias, with the proposal to "grow PURP" and with the promise of investment and "qualified people". According to the politician, these "emissaries" of the former deputy are Bruno Monarca and Miguel Montenegro, clinical psychologist and psychotherapist, who is part of the team at the Carlos Amaral Dias Psychoanalysis Clinic, with whom he has always had contact, although the same would not join the party.
(...)
"You - you and your associates - caused the party to end (...) you just wanted to run in the European elections, but with another party", he argues.

The biggest surprise would come with the recent announcement that Joana Amaral Dias would represent the ADN in the European elections. "I was betrayed", considers Fernando Loureiro. "They ruined the party when they got involved in this. They made me look bad in front of the people who have known me since day one", he laments.

"He was a big fan of hers and he betrayed me," he said. "I'm being bombarded by all the members who knew me and thought that Joana Amaral Dias would be at the head of the party", he added.
(...)

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV on the 50 years of the 1974 revolution:

Q1: Opinion on these statements:

Strong leader without elections or parliament: 43% Disagree; 34% Agree
Until 1974, Portugal was better in terms of its identity: 43% Disagree; 29% Agree
Portugal would be great again if it returned to Salazar's ideals: 54% Disagree; 23% Agree
Talk of anti-fascism is an outdated thing: 36% Agree; 35% Disagree

Q2: Degree of satisfaction with democracy?

57% A lot/acceptable
41% Very little/none
  2% Undecided

Q3: Portugal is a democracy...

44% With a lot of defects
42% With small defects
  8% Full democracy
  4% It's not a democracy
  2% Undecided

Q4: Compared with 1974, rate the improvement of the following areas:

Healthcare: 74% Better; 13% Worse
Standard of living: 71% Better; 16% Worse
Education: 71% Better; 17% Worse
Social Security: 68% Better; 13% Worse
Economy: 62% Better; 19% Worse
Environment: 60% Better; 20% Worse
Social coexistence: 57% Better; 24% Worse
National Independence: 51% Better; 20% Worse
Cultural heritage protection: 48% Better; 21% Worse
Housing: 47% Better; 34% Worse
Social inequality: 46% Better; 23% Worse
Regional inequality: 42% Better; 22% Worse
Justice: 40% Better; 36% Worse
Unemployment: 42% Worse; 34% Better
Crime and security: 66% Worse; 19% Better
Corruption: 66% Worse; 14% Better

Q5: To what extent do you think Portuguese society has changed since the 25th of April?

45% A lot
39% Considerable
13% Very little
  1% No change
  2% Undecided

Q6: And how would you rate these changes?

56% More positive than negative
35% As positive as it was negative
  9% More negative than positive

Poll conducted between 20 March and 4 April 2024. Polled 1,206 voters. MoE of 2.80%.