2016 Mini Timeline: The Rise of McMullin
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  2016 Mini Timeline: The Rise of McMullin
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Poll
Question: Who will win?
#1
Hillary will win and she'll get over 300 electoral votes
 
#2
Hillary will win and she'll get anywhere from 280-300 electoral votes
 
#3
This will be a true toss-up and the winning side will receive less than 280 electoral votes
 
#4
McMullin will win and he'll get anywhere from 280 to 300 electoral votes
 
#5
McMullin will win and he'll win with over 300 electoral votes
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 6

Author Topic: 2016 Mini Timeline: The Rise of McMullin  (Read 527 times)
Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 06, 2020, 02:46:07 PM »
« edited: September 06, 2020, 04:55:00 PM by Chips »

Evan McMullin rose as a late dark horse candidate in September 2015. He surprisingly won the nomination after a closely contested campaign. He picked Florida senator Marco Rubio as his running mate.

Current polling map (August 2016)



Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 226 electoral votes (176 safe, 19 likely, 31 lean)
Evan McMullin/Marco Rubio: 206 electoral votes (164 safe, 27 likely, 15 lean)
Toss-ups: 106 electoral votes

What does the electoral map look like at the end?
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2020, 02:52:06 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2020, 04:54:51 PM by Chips »

September 13th, 2016: Trump announces run as a third-party under the Reform Party. This is expected to help Clinton as he's polling at around 5% nationwide taking mostly McMullin supporters.

Polling:



Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 243 electoral votes (183 safe, 28 likely, 32 lean)
Evan McMullin/Marco Rubio: 191 electoral votes (153 safe, 28 likely, 10 lean)
Toss-ups: 104 electoral votes
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2020, 04:46:24 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2020, 04:54:35 PM by Chips »

Late September polling:



Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 264 electoral votes (185 safe, 36 likely, 43 lean)
Evan McMullin/Marco Rubio: 191 electoral votes (164 safe, 27 likely)
Toss-ups: 83 electoral votes

Trump is polling at 8%, helping Clinton further as McMullin now has to sweep the toss-ups to win.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2020, 04:54:15 PM »

Early October polling:



Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 239 electoral votes (178 safe, 33 likely, 28 lean)
Evan McMullin/Marco Rubio: 191 electoral votes (164 safe, 27 likely)
Toss-ups: 108 electoral votes
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2020, 06:41:44 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2020, 06:48:14 PM by Chips »

Mid-October polling:



Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 226 electoral votes (178 safe, 17 likely, 31 lean)
Evan McMullin/Marco Rubio: 191 electoral votes (174 safe, 17 likely)
Toss-ups: 121 electoral votes
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2020, 06:46:03 PM »

Final polling map:



Evan McMullin/Marco Rubio: 212 electoral votes (174 safe, 17 likely, 21 lean)
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 211 electoral votes (162 safe, 23 likely, 26 lean)
Toss-ups: 115 electoral votes
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Chips
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2020, 08:52:23 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2020, 08:56:03 PM by Chips »

ELECTION NIGHT 2016 IS HERE!!!

7PM:

Evan McMullin wins:

Indiana
Kentucky
South Carolina
Georgia

Hillary Clinton wins:

Vermont

Too Close to Call:

Virginia (McMullin Lead)



Evan McMullin has a 44-3 lead over Secretary Clinton!
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2020, 08:59:54 PM »

7:30PM poll closings:

McMullin wins:

West Virginia

Too Close to Call:

Ohio (Clinton Lead)
North Carolina (McMullin Lead)




Evan McMullin/Marco Rubio: 49 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 3 electoral votes
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2020, 09:06:03 PM »



McMullin wins:

Alabama
Mississippi
Missouri
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Arkansas (8:30)

Clinton wins:

Illinois
Maine (3)
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Delaware
Connecticut

Too Close to Call:

Florida
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Maine (1)

McMullin: 98
Clinton: 78
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2020, 09:05:50 PM »

9PM:



McMullin wins:

Arizona
Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota
South Dakota
Texas
Wyoming

Clinton wins:

New York

Too close to call:

Colorado
Michigan
Minnesota
New Mexico
Wisconsin

McMullin: 175
Clinton: 107
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2020, 02:04:25 PM »

Go Evan
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2020, 11:48:59 AM »

9:49PM: We have a very important call. Evan McMullin has won our first battleground state of the night. North Carolina which went to Romney 4 years ago but still considered a battleground this year but North Carolina will go to McMullin.



McMullin: 190
Clinton: 107

10PM:

McMullin wins

Montana
Utah

Too close to call:

Nevada (McMullin lead)
Iowa (Clinton lead)

We can also project Clinton will win her first battleground of the night, Minnesota where she had a small lead in the polls and several Republicans thought McMullin could pick this one up but Clinton will win Minnesota.



McMullin: 199 electoral votes
Clinton: 117 electoral votes

Here are the past battleground states and who's leading.

Colorado (McMullin lead)
New Mexico (Clinton lead)
Wisconsin (McMullin lead)
Michigan (Clinton lead)
Ohio (McMullin lead)
Pennsylvania (Clinton lead)
New Hampshire (McMullin lead)
ME CD2 (McMullin lead)
Virginia (McMullin lead)
Florida (McMullin lead)
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2020, 11:51:33 AM »

My guess is he wins with the Bush 2004 map - NM + WI


Question will you be going over the McMullin presidency on here as well
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2020, 11:56:08 AM »

11PM:

Clinton wins:

California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii

McMullin wins:

Idaho

We can also project two more battleground states.

Nevada for McMullin which is our first flip of the night.
Michigan for Clinton



Clinton: 211 electoral votes
McMullin: 209 electoral votes
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2020, 11:56:46 AM »

My guess is he wins with the Bush 2004 map - NM + WI


Question will you be going over the McMullin presidency on here as well

You're close but that's not quite what I have in mind.

I might. It depends on the reception this timeline gets.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2020, 12:02:52 PM »

11:32PM: We can project that Florida and Colorado will both go to McMullin this is significant as that puts him up to 247 electoral votes. Alaska will go to McMullin giving him 250 and then Ohio and another state will do it.

Here's where we currently stand on the battlegrounds.

New Mexico: Clinton lead
Iowa: McMullin lead
Wisconsin: Clinton lead
Ohio: McMullin lead
Pennsylvania: Clinton lead
Virginia: McMullin lead
New Hampshire: McMullin lead
ME CD2: McMullin lead

It looks as though Iowa, Pennsylvania and Virginia might be heading for recounts but if McMullin wins OH, NH and ME-02 he wins.



McMullin: 247 electoral votes
Clinton: 211 electoral votes
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2020, 12:08:04 PM »

12:11AM: We have projections that Clinton will win Wisconsin while McMullin will win New Hampshire and the second congressional district of Maine.

McMullin is now at 252 electoral votes. Clinton has to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania as well as either Iowa or Virginia. If she loses either Ohio or Pennsylvania or both Virginia and Iowa it's over. Clinton is leading in NM but McMullin holds a lead in the other four states still too close to call.



McMullin: 252 electoral votes
Clinton: 221 electoral votes
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2020, 12:12:26 PM »

BREAKING NEWS: MCMULLIN WINS PRESIDENCY!

It's 12:43AM and we can project Ohio will go to McMullin. That puts him exactly at 270. We also project New Mexico for Clinton but that state is now irrelevant.

McMullin leads in Iowa and Pennsylvania while Clinton leads in Virginia but all 3 are probably heading for recounts.



McMullin: 270 electoral votes
Clinton: 226 electoral votes

1AM:

Alaska will go to McMullin. No surprises there.



McMullin: 273 electoral votes
Clinton: 226 electoral votes
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2020, 12:13:59 PM »

RECOUNT RESULTS IN IOWA, PENNSYLVANIA AND VIRGINIA:

Iowa: McMullin wins

Pennsylvania: McMullin wins

Virginia: Clinton wins:

FINAL RESULTS:



McMullin: 299 electoral votes
Clinton: 239 electoral votes
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