NM-Research and Co: Biden +15
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  NM-Research and Co: Biden +15
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Author Topic: NM-Research and Co: Biden +15  (Read 1862 times)
ON Progressive
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« on: September 06, 2020, 01:08:39 AM »

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2020, 01:13:38 AM »

Confirmation of what we already knew, that New Mexico is Safe D. Like I said elsewhere, I think Biden will ultimately win by a margin comparable to those of Barack Obama in 2008 and Michelle Lujan-Grisham in 2018. Why the Trump campaign ever thought that they had a chance here is perplexing to me.
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VAR
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2020, 01:17:50 AM »

Trump approval: 39/53
Biden favorability: 47/42
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2020, 01:27:46 AM »

But, like, Gary Johnson voters
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2020, 02:14:26 AM »

NM has too many college educated whites to vote Trump even if Biden under performs with Hispanics, ala Kerry 2004.
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Rand
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2020, 02:16:18 AM »

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2020, 06:19:53 AM »

Conducted for the Albuquerque Journal
August 26-September 2
1123 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%

https://www.abqjournal.com/1493758/biden-holds-sizable-lead-over-trump-in-nm-journal-poll-finds.html

The remaining voters were either undecided or did not plan to vote for either candidate.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2020, 06:27:58 AM »

Why the Trump campaign ever thought that they had a chance here is perplexing to me.

It seems they thought they could pull some kind of a "past, present, and future" map by holding the Midwest and flipping both New Mexico and Minnesota.
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Pollster
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2020, 04:25:54 PM »

Excellent news for XTS as this poll implies Trump is up by no more than 4 points in NM-02.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2020, 05:08:36 PM »

Looks like Biden is doing pretty well with latinos in this poll. 64-28 would be about the same as Obama 2012 for NM but with Biden performing much better with whites.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2020, 05:11:47 PM »

Yeah, but NM trended Republican twice, so it’s totally going to be a swing state again soon.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2020, 06:16:57 PM »

Wow! That's actually a pretty big margin. Obviously New Mexico is safe D and was always going to swing back to how it voted in both of Obama's elections, but I was under the impression that Democrats had a ceiling of 12% or so here as states like Colorado and Virginia would surpass it as far as them voting Democratic by more. I guess not! Good news for bellwether Valencia County, hopefully.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2020, 06:42:18 PM »

Wow! That's actually a pretty big margin. Obviously New Mexico is safe D and was always going to swing back to how it voted in both of Obama's elections, but I was under the impression that Democrats had a ceiling of 12% or so here as states like Colorado and Virginia would surpass it as far as them voting Democratic by more. I guess not! Good news for bellwether Valencia County, hopefully.

Michelle Lujan-Grisham lost Valencia County in 2018 while winning statewide by 14%, though I think it's possible that Steve Pearce had something of a "native son" boost there, considering that most of Valencia County is located within his old congressional district (NM-02). Most other statewide Democrats, including Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas, carried the county.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2020, 06:59:34 PM »

Rio Rancho (#3 largest City in New Mexico) almost definitely flips Biden by those margins...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2020, 02:04:09 AM »

In the black hole as a Trump hope. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2020, 05:30:32 AM »

Y'all know I don't usually boast because things change rapidly in the world of electoral politics, but remember when the Trump campaign had New Mexico on their 2020 target list?

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Rand
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« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2020, 05:55:02 AM »

Y'all know I don't usually boast because things change rapidly in the world of electoral politics, but remember when the Trump campaign had New Mexico on their 2020 target list?



They were actually targeting “new Mexicans” with rifles and attack dogs and Goya beans placed in bear traps. It was a typo but they caught it. Just like they’re catching new Mexicans coming over the border from Mexico with rifles, attack dogs, and bear traps.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2020, 08:52:02 AM »

Excellent news for XTS as this poll implies Trump is up by no more than 4 points in NM-02.

You are correct!
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2020, 07:55:44 PM »

Y'all know I don't usually boast because things change rapidly in the world of electoral politics, but remember when the Trump campaign had New Mexico on their 2020 target list?



NM is going to be more Democratic then TX will be Republican this year. Mind blown.
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