CA, ID - Spry Strategies/Women's Liberation Front (R?): Biden +17%, Trump +25%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 29-September 1, 2020

CA
http://womensliberationfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Statewide_California_8.25.20-Tables_Only-Tables_Only.pdf
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Biden 56%
Trump 39%
Undecided 5%

ID
http://womensliberationfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Statewide_Idaho_8.25.20-Tables_Only-Tables_Only.pdf

600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Trump 60%
Biden 35%
Undecided 6%

Spry Strategies usually polls for Republicans but the Women's Libertarian Front is a radfem outfit. However, they have had odd, temporary alliances with Republicans; they allied with the Trump administration in a case against the DOJ alleging anti-trans discrimination. I'm not confident about the group the term is supposed to apply to these days, but they could probably be labelled TERFs.

For context, a DOJ employee was fired ostensibly because though they dressed in a manner complaint with the dress code for their gender, they did not dress in a manner compliant with the dress code for their sex.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Given the transphobic questions in this thing, hard to take any of the numbers seriously.

[The Mikado]

Uh...huh.

Clinton won CA by 30 and Trump won ID by 32 last time.

This would be far and away the best performance for a Republican in CA since 2004 if this materialized.

I'm...very skeptical that CA is going to swing double digits towards Donald Trump.

[Devout Centrist]

Ayy lmao

[Storr]

Women's Liberation Front? lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Given the transphobic questions in this thing, hard to take any of the numbers seriously.

They put the loaded questions after the voting intention questions so can't be much worse than any other internal that puts loaded questions after their voting intention ones.

[The Mikado]

What's the rationale in picking these two states? Are there trans rights ballot referenda in them?

[pbrower2a]

Idaho 60% for Trump seems reasonable enough. Biden 56% in California? That's more likely for Colorado or Michigan.

I'll take the 25% edge in idaho for a lack of alternatives.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have read a bit on why they claim to have a stake in the case against the fired trans employee. It seems utterly bizarre and hypocritical that a group claiming not to care about dress codes would go to the trouble of litigating against her anyway.

[ON Progressive]

I have read a bit on why they claim to have a stake in the case against the fired trans employee. It seems utterly bizarre and hypocritical that a group claiming not to care about dress codes would go to the trouble of litigating against her anyway.

They are TERFs. Given that you are British, surely you should know by now that TERFs aren’t exactly intelligent people.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The origins of this poll are truly bizarre, as is the combination of states. (And yes, it’s definitely underestimating Biden and overestimating Trump in CA).

[Person Man]

The origins of this poll are truly bizarre, as is the combination of states. (And yes, it’s definitely underestimating Biden and overestimating Trump in CA).

I kind of hope it’s right if the National polling is right.

[Skill and Chance]

The origins of this poll are truly bizarre, as is the combination of states. (And yes, it’s definitely underestimating Biden and overestimating Trump in CA).

I kind of hope it’s right if the National polling is right.

Well, the EC/PV situation overall looks about the same as it was in 2016 even with Texas clearly shifting a couple points more toward Biden than the national PV.  So it makes some sense intuitively that CA would have to trend right (and maybe NY?) for this to be true.   I would still be very surprised if Biden does this poorly, but a more Obama 2008 than Clinton 2016 performance is on the table.   

[Kuumo]

The Idaho numbers on this poll look believable. Color me skeptical on the California numbers though.

Women's Liberation Front? lol

Women's Liberation Front seems to be a euphemism for "Trans Women Aren't Women Front."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's the rationale in picking these two states? Are there trans rights ballot referenda in them?

Recently passed bills in each. They sum it up here: http://womensliberationfront.org/wolf-poll-gender-identity-ca-id-voters

As for who conducted this poll...
https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1303009843167604737?s=19

[John Dule]

Given the transphobic questions in this thing, hard to take any of the numbers seriously.

There's nothing inherently transphobic about these questions. They're worded fairly blandly.

[Skye]

I'll eat my shoe if Trump gets 39% in CA given his current national polls.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Women's Liberation Front? lol

They're TERFs, what do you expect?

I'll eat my shoe if Trump gets 39% in CA given his current national polls.

If Trump gets 39% in CA while losing the national PV by 10 points, it means he's getting blown out in the EC, so I could live with that.

[Canis]

lol all the polls of Cali have been showing Biden +30-37 so Biden +17 is a massive outlier and lol why the hell would you waste money polling the crucial swing states of Idaho and California

[morgieb]

TERF's - ayyyy lmao

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is one of the strangest polls and polling firms I have ever seen.