TX - Data for Progress/Texas Youth Power Alliance (presumably D?) - Cornyn +6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/Texas%20Poll%20Press%20Release.pdf

August 20-25, 2020
2295 likely voters
MoE: 2%

Changes with January 16-21 poll.

Cornyn 46%
Hegar 40%
Undecided 15% (and they definitely all lean towards Unbeatable Titan John Cornyn)

[SnowLabrador]

If Biden wins Texas by three points, Cornyn will be lucky to win at all. I don't buy that he'll run far ahead of Trump due to incumbency.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hegar is gonna win

[WD]

Cornyn is exactly matching Trump’s share of the vote, his lead is an illusion. He won’t win by anywhere near 6-7. This race will probably be within 5. Based on past polls most undecideds will go towards Hegar.

[Barack Oganja]

Damn you Beto

[President Johnson]

Likely Republican. Hegar will definitely get less votes than Joe Biden, since Republicans or conservative-leaning independents willing to turn their back on Trump and vote for Biden will also vote for Cornyn. He's less controversial than Cruz, which is why he'll most likely win by a larger margin. Beto could have made it competitive, but all too bad he wasted all his momentum from the 2018 election on a vanity presidential run.

[MT Treasurer]

Tossup.

Fun fact: When Cornyn won the state by 27 points in 2014, he received almost 500,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama in 2012 (!), who of course lost the state by 17 points.

Here’s how this might play out:

1. Cornyn will keep matching Trump's percentage in polling, but still outperform him in terms of margin because of the larger number of undecideds in the Senate race/a SEN-PRES gap in the name recognition of the candidates. Everyone will continue to rate it Likely R because of Hegar's "weaknesses" as a candidate + Cornyn's "uncontroversial" nature and act like it’s far less competitive than IA, NC, GA-R, etc. The general consensus will still be that the main reason TX-SEN 2018 was close is because of the loathsome Cruz and the astonishing "Beto effect"/"Beto's" unique strengths as a candidate.

2. In late September/early October or so, Hegar will release a GREAT ad which touts her military experience or bipartisan credentials or personal life story or whatever (something similar to Kander's famous ad, perhaps) which will quickly go viral -- people will be all over it as it receives a ton of media coverage, her fundraising shoots up, etc.

3. Most of the "undecideds" (who were never going to vote for Cornyn in the first place) break Hegar’s way.

4. Cook and Sabato move it to Lean R even though it couldn’t be more obvious that it’s a Tossup.

5. On election night, Cornyn only very narrowly outperforms Trump and even underperforms some other vulnerable Republicans like Ernst. The era of Cornyn NUT maps has finally come to an end, who could have possibly seen it coming?

6. After the election, people unironically claim that the race was only close because of the Hegar effect/Hegar's unique strengths as a candidate.

[WD]

Tossup.

Fun fact: When Cornyn won the state by 27 points in 2014, he received almost 500,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama in 2012 (!), who of course lost the state by 17 points.

Here’s how this might play out:

1. Cornyn will keep matching Trump's percentage in polling, but still outperform him in terms of margin because of the larger number of undecideds in the Senate race/a SEN-PRES gap in the name recognition of the candidates. Everyone will continue to rate it Likely R because of Hegar's "weaknesses" as a candidate + Cornyn's "uncontroversial" nature and act like it’s far less competitive than IA, NC, GA-R, etc. The general consensus will still be that the main reason TX-SEN 2018 was close is because of the loathsome Cruz and the astonishing "Beto effect"/"Beto's" unique strengths as a candidate.

2. In late September/early October or so, Hegar will release a GREAT ad which touts her military experience or bipartisan credentials or personal life story or whatever (something similar to Kander's famous ad, perhaps) which will quickly go viral -- people will be all over it as it receives a ton of media coverage, her fundraising shoots up, etc.

3. Most of the "undecideds" (who were never going to vote for Cornyn in the first place) break Hegar’s way.

4. Cook and Sabato move it to Lean R even though it couldn’t be more obvious that it’s a Tossup.

5. On election night, Cornyn only very narrowly outperforms Trump and even underperforms some other vulnerable Republicans like Ernst. The era of Cornyn NUT maps has finally come to an end, who could have possibly seen it coming?

6. After the election, people unironically claim that the race was only close because of the Hegar effect/Hegar's unique strengths as a candidate.

So what you’re saying is Cornyn won’t crack 80% in Tarrant County?    But muh legions of Biden-Cornyn voters muh moderate suburbanites who hate Trump but will vote for every other Republican

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup.

Fun fact: When Cornyn won the state by 27 points in 2014, he received almost 500,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama in 2012 (!), who of course lost the state by 17 points.

Here’s how this might play out:

1. Cornyn will keep matching Trump's percentage in polling, but still outperform him in terms of margin because of the larger number of undecideds in the Senate race/a SEN-PRES gap in the name recognition of the candidates. Everyone will continue to rate it Likely R because of Hegar's "weaknesses" as a candidate + Cornyn's "uncontroversial" nature and act like it’s far less competitive than IA, NC, GA-R, etc. The general consensus will still be that the main reason TX-SEN 2018 was close is because of the loathsome Cruz and the astonishing "Beto effect"/"Beto's" unique strengths as a candidate.

2. In late September/early October or so, Hegar will release a GREAT ad which touts her military experience or bipartisan credentials or personal life story or whatever (something similar to Kander's famous ad, perhaps) which will quickly go viral -- people will be all over it as it receives a ton of media coverage, her fundraising shoots up, etc.

3. Most of the "undecideds" (who were never going to vote for Cornyn in the first place) break Hegar’s way.

4. Cook and Sabato move it to Lean R even though it couldn’t be more obvious that it’s a Tossup.

5. On election night, Cornyn only very narrowly outperforms Trump and even underperforms some other vulnerable Republicans like Ernst. The era of Cornyn NUT maps has finally come to an end, who could have possibly seen it coming?

6. After the election, people unironically claim that the race was only close because of the Hegar effect/Hegar's unique strengths as a candidate.

So what you’re saying is Cornyn won’t crack 80% in Tarrant County?    But muh legions of Biden-Cornyn voters muh moderate suburbanites who hate Trump but will vote for every other Republican

Why are you arguing with Indy Rep, he still has Collins and James winning, if Hegar wins, it will be an upset, but the way AZ and FL, is going, Ds will win TX

[Hope For A New Era]

Hegar still has a name recognition problem, apparently.

[WD]

Tossup.

Fun fact: When Cornyn won the state by 27 points in 2014, he received almost 500,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama in 2012 (!), who of course lost the state by 17 points.

Here’s how this might play out:

1. Cornyn will keep matching Trump's percentage in polling, but still outperform him in terms of margin because of the larger number of undecideds in the Senate race/a SEN-PRES gap in the name recognition of the candidates. Everyone will continue to rate it Likely R because of Hegar's "weaknesses" as a candidate + Cornyn's "uncontroversial" nature and act like it’s far less competitive than IA, NC, GA-R, etc. The general consensus will still be that the main reason TX-SEN 2018 was close is because of the loathsome Cruz and the astonishing "Beto effect"/"Beto's" unique strengths as a candidate.

2. In late September/early October or so, Hegar will release a GREAT ad which touts her military experience or bipartisan credentials or personal life story or whatever (something similar to Kander's famous ad, perhaps) which will quickly go viral -- people will be all over it as it receives a ton of media coverage, her fundraising shoots up, etc.

3. Most of the "undecideds" (who were never going to vote for Cornyn in the first place) break Hegar’s way.

4. Cook and Sabato move it to Lean R even though it couldn’t be more obvious that it’s a Tossup.

5. On election night, Cornyn only very narrowly outperforms Trump and even underperforms some other vulnerable Republicans like Ernst. The era of Cornyn NUT maps has finally come to an end, who could have possibly seen it coming?

6. After the election, people unironically claim that the race was only close because of the Hegar effect/Hegar's unique strengths as a candidate.

So what you’re saying is Cornyn won’t crack 80% in Tarrant County?    But muh legions of Biden-Cornyn voters muh moderate suburbanites who hate Trump but will vote for every other Republican

Why are you arguing with Indy Rep, he still has Collins and James winning, if Hegar wins, it will be an upset, but the way AZ and FL, is going, Ds will win TX

I wasn’t arguing with him lol. I was being sarcastic

[S019]

Tossup.

Fun fact: When Cornyn won the state by 27 points in 2014, he received almost 500,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama in 2012 (!), who of course lost the state by 17 points.

Here’s how this might play out:

1. Cornyn will keep matching Trump's percentage in polling, but still outperform him in terms of margin because of the larger number of undecideds in the Senate race/a SEN-PRES gap in the name recognition of the candidates. Everyone will continue to rate it Likely R because of Hegar's "weaknesses" as a candidate + Cornyn's "uncontroversial" nature and act like it’s far less competitive than IA, NC, GA-R, etc. The general consensus will still be that the main reason TX-SEN 2018 was close is because of the loathsome Cruz and the astonishing "Beto effect"/"Beto's" unique strengths as a candidate.

2. In late September/early October or so, Hegar will release a GREAT ad which touts her military experience or bipartisan credentials or personal life story or whatever (something similar to Kander's famous ad, perhaps) which will quickly go viral -- people will be all over it as it receives a ton of media coverage, her fundraising shoots up, etc.

3. Most of the "undecideds" (who were never going to vote for Cornyn in the first place) break Hegar’s way.

4. Cook and Sabato move it to Lean R even though it couldn’t be more obvious that it’s a Tossup.

5. On election night, Cornyn only very narrowly outperforms Trump and even underperforms some other vulnerable Republicans like Ernst. The era of Cornyn NUT maps has finally come to an end, who could have possibly seen it coming?

6. After the election, people unironically claim that the race was only close because of the Hegar effect/Hegar's unique strengths as a candidate.

So what you’re saying is Cornyn won’t crack 80% in Tarrant County?    But muh legions of Biden-Cornyn voters muh moderate suburbanites who hate Trump but will vote for every other Republican

Why are you arguing with Indy Rep, he still has Collins and James winning, if Hegar wins, it will be an upset, but the way AZ and FL, is going, Ds will win TX

I wasn’t arguing with him lol. I was being sarcastic

olawakandi is a troll, it's best to ignore him



Anyways, I agree that these undecideds are mostly Democrats and that this will closely parallel the presidential race. My current guess is Biden+1 and Cornyn+1, but yes, as others have said, there won't be a large amount of ticket-splitters in this race, but my guess is that there are just enough to let Cornyn win in a squeaker.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup.

Fun fact: When Cornyn won the state by 27 points in 2014, he received almost 500,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama in 2012 (!), who of course lost the state by 17 points.

Here’s how this might play out:

1. Cornyn will keep matching Trump's percentage in polling, but still outperform him in terms of margin because of the larger number of undecideds in the Senate race/a SEN-PRES gap in the name recognition of the candidates. Everyone will continue to rate it Likely R because of Hegar's "weaknesses" as a candidate + Cornyn's "uncontroversial" nature and act like it’s far less competitive than IA, NC, GA-R, etc. The general consensus will still be that the main reason TX-SEN 2018 was close is because of the loathsome Cruz and the astonishing "Beto effect"/"Beto's" unique strengths as a candidate.

2. In late September/early October or so, Hegar will release a GREAT ad which touts her military experience or bipartisan credentials or personal life story or whatever (something similar to Kander's famous ad, perhaps) which will quickly go viral -- people will be all over it as it receives a ton of media coverage, her fundraising shoots up, etc.

3. Most of the "undecideds" (who were never going to vote for Cornyn in the first place) break Hegar’s way.

4. Cook and Sabato move it to Lean R even though it couldn’t be more obvious that it’s a Tossup.

5. On election night, Cornyn only very narrowly outperforms Trump and even underperforms some other vulnerable Republicans like Ernst. The era of Cornyn NUT maps has finally come to an end, who could have possibly seen it coming?

6. After the election, people unironically claim that the race was only close because of the Hegar effect/Hegar's unique strengths as a candidate.

So what you’re saying is Cornyn won’t crack 80% in Tarrant County?    But muh legions of Biden-Cornyn voters muh moderate suburbanites who hate Trump but will vote for every other Republican

Why are you arguing with Indy Rep, he still has Collins and James winning, if Hegar wins, it will be an upset, but the way AZ and FL, is going, Ds will win TX

I wasn’t arguing with him lol. I was being sarcastic

olawakandi is a troll, it's best to ignore him



Anyways, I agree that these undecideds are mostly Democrats and that this will closely parallel the presidential race. My current guess is Biden+1 and Cornyn+1, but yes, as others have said, there won't be a large amount of ticket-splitters in this race, but my guess is that there are just enough to let Cornyn win in a squeaker.

Who has John James and Susan Collins winning, MT Treasurer, that is trolling

[S019]

Tossup.

Fun fact: When Cornyn won the state by 27 points in 2014, he received almost 500,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama in 2012 (!), who of course lost the state by 17 points.

Here’s how this might play out:

1. Cornyn will keep matching Trump's percentage in polling, but still outperform him in terms of margin because of the larger number of undecideds in the Senate race/a SEN-PRES gap in the name recognition of the candidates. Everyone will continue to rate it Likely R because of Hegar's "weaknesses" as a candidate + Cornyn's "uncontroversial" nature and act like it’s far less competitive than IA, NC, GA-R, etc. The general consensus will still be that the main reason TX-SEN 2018 was close is because of the loathsome Cruz and the astonishing "Beto effect"/"Beto's" unique strengths as a candidate.

2. In late September/early October or so, Hegar will release a GREAT ad which touts her military experience or bipartisan credentials or personal life story or whatever (something similar to Kander's famous ad, perhaps) which will quickly go viral -- people will be all over it as it receives a ton of media coverage, her fundraising shoots up, etc.

3. Most of the "undecideds" (who were never going to vote for Cornyn in the first place) break Hegar’s way.

4. Cook and Sabato move it to Lean R even though it couldn’t be more obvious that it’s a Tossup.

5. On election night, Cornyn only very narrowly outperforms Trump and even underperforms some other vulnerable Republicans like Ernst. The era of Cornyn NUT maps has finally come to an end, who could have possibly seen it coming?

6. After the election, people unironically claim that the race was only close because of the Hegar effect/Hegar's unique strengths as a candidate.

So what you’re saying is Cornyn won’t crack 80% in Tarrant County?    But muh legions of Biden-Cornyn voters muh moderate suburbanites who hate Trump but will vote for every other Republican

Why are you arguing with Indy Rep, he still has Collins and James winning, if Hegar wins, it will be an upset, but the way AZ and FL, is going, Ds will win TX

I wasn’t arguing with him lol. I was being sarcastic

olawakandi is a troll, it's best to ignore him



Anyways, I agree that these undecideds are mostly Democrats and that this will closely parallel the presidential race. My current guess is Biden+1 and Cornyn+1, but yes, as others have said, there won't be a large amount of ticket-splitters in this race, but my guess is that there are just enough to let Cornyn win in a squeaker.

Who has John James and Susan Collins winning, MT Treasurer, that is trolling

Susan Collins' race is still a tossup and given her decades-long brand she'll have an easier time winning undecideds than someone like say Tillis or Perdue. I agree that James is overrated, but I feel like MTTreasurer has said in recent days that the race seems to be slipping away from Republicans as the NRSC insists on spending millions in CO to rescue McSally and Gardner.