Who was the last democrat to win southern whites?
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  Who was the last democrat to win southern whites?
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Author Topic: Who was the last democrat to win southern whites?  (Read 4723 times)
ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2020, 11:30:20 AM »

This isn't related to the question specifically, but this brings up an interesting divide between the broad category of "Southern Whites."  For example, I would imagine that in 1976, Carter won a majority of "Southern Whites who had historically voted Democratic," considering Ford won a ton of suburban areas and did best in the most transplant-heavy states, such as Virginia, Florida and Texas.  (A huge exception here is Mississippi, which makes sense, as the most conservative former Democrats who were decidedly less populist were the first ones to jump ship.)

The tendency to credit Northern migrants with being the source of new Republican votes in the South is overestimated.

Urban and suburban Southern whites who were middle- or upper-class started voting Republican for president in the 1950s and 1960s, even if their family had been living in the South for 200 years.

In Texas, from the Mexican era up until the late 20th century, most people who moved there were from the South (especially Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi). Dallas-Fort Worth was the first area to start attracting Northerners in sizable numbers in the 1950s to work for companies like Texas Instruments. Houston was a common destination for people from the Rust Belt in the 1980s.

I wasn’t saying that transplants made the difference, merely that Ford’s best states had the highest respective impacts of suburban voting + transplants + more conservative Democratic Parties to begin with, and hypothesizing that, say, your average White JFK 1960 voter in the South might have gone for Carter still.

This is true, though there are some exceptions, like the New Orleans suburbs, the Mississippi,and Alabama gulf coasts, and the far west of the Florida panhandle which went for both Kennedy and Ford.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2020, 01:03:32 PM »

This isn't related to the question specifically, but this brings up an interesting divide between the broad category of "Southern Whites."  For example, I would imagine that in 1976, Carter won a majority of "Southern Whites who had historically voted Democratic," considering Ford won a ton of suburban areas and did best in the most transplant-heavy states, such as Virginia, Florida and Texas.  (A huge exception here is Mississippi, which makes sense, as the most conservative former Democrats who were decidedly less populist were the first ones to jump ship.)

The tendency to credit Northern migrants with being the source of new Republican votes in the South is overestimated.

Urban and suburban Southern whites who were middle- or upper-class started voting Republican for president in the 1950s and 1960s, even if their family had been living in the South for 200 years.

In Texas, from the Mexican era up until the late 20th century, most people who moved there were from the South (especially Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi). Dallas-Fort Worth was the first area to start attracting Northerners in sizable numbers in the 1950s to work for companies like Texas Instruments. Houston was a common destination for people from the Rust Belt in the 1980s.

I wasn’t saying that transplants made the difference, merely that Ford’s best states had the highest respective impacts of suburban voting + transplants + more conservative Democratic Parties to begin with, and hypothesizing that, say, your average White JFK 1960 voter in the South might have gone for Carter still.

This is true, though there are some exceptions, like the New Orleans suburbs, the Mississippi,and Alabama gulf coasts, and the far west of the Florida panhandle which went for both Kennedy and Ford.

For sure.  The Southern realignment to the GOP is so pathetically oversimplified by all sides.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2020, 01:36:48 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2020, 01:45:22 PM by Suburbron Biden - Perdue - Lieberman Voter »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2020, 01:44:37 PM »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of turnout in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered, there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote


Even before this particular metric, I am also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in these "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the

I get that they can do it for registration, but how does the SoS track turnout by race? Surely this violates the secret ballot?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2020, 01:46:34 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2020, 01:49:40 PM by Suburbron Biden - Perdue - Lieberman Voter »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of turnout in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered, there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote


Even before this particular metric, I am also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in these "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the

I get that they can do it for registration, but how does the SoS track turnout by race? Surely this violates the secret ballot?


As best I know, VRA states are required to track turnout by race (it's not difficult if you're tracking voter registration by race, of course), but are not required to make it publicly available (I believe only GA & LA publicly furnish this data). The same concept is how random candidates and orgs can buy voter file access and tell who all has voted in which election(s) - you can even see who voted in which party's primaries. In the US, which elections you vote in is broadly a matter of public record (nobody can see who you voted for, of course).

If you doubt me, all you have to do is go here: https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/voter_turn_out_by_demographics . This shows racial turnout by precinct, gender and county for every major election since 1996.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2020, 02:06:46 PM »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of turnout in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered, there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote


Even before this particular metric, I am also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in these "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the

I get that they can do it for registration, but how does the SoS track turnout by race? Surely this violates the secret ballot?


As best I know, VRA states are required to track turnout by race (it's not difficult if you're tracking voter registration by race, of course), but are not required to make it publicly available (I believe only GA & LA publicly furnish this data). The same concept is how random candidates and orgs can buy voter file access and tell who all has voted in which election(s) - you can even see who voted in which party's primaries. In the US, which elections you vote in is broadly a matter of public record (nobody can see who you voted for, of course).

If you doubt me, all you have to do is go here: https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/voter_turn_out_by_demographics . This shows racial turnout by precinct, gender and county for every major election since 1996.

I presume that this is done by recording the identification number of the ballot each voter is given?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2020, 06:06:42 PM »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Is your argument that Carter won the white vote in Georgia in 1980?
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #32 on: September 14, 2020, 08:33:30 PM »



I don't know if this helps, but I had previously compiled a map of when was the last time the white vote in each state went Democratic

Give the Thurmond factor, Florida and Virginia probably haven't seen an outright majority of whites vote Democratic since FDR in 1944.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2020, 10:31:40 AM »

^ I can't speak to Virginia, but it is almost crazy how quickly Florida went from "Dixie backwater" to "hot spot for growth" in the Twentieth Century, and I would argue its electoral results somewhat reflect that.  I guess that's what AC does for ya.
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« Reply #34 on: November 24, 2020, 12:54:20 PM »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote


Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Mobile & Jefferson Counties were a higher portion of state population than today, Madison less.  So I think it is consistent with a narrow Ford win of the white vote, esp. given you can imagine many more counties R without the black vote.   Still the map is also consistent with a narrow Carter win of the white vote, where his strength in the north of the state makes up for a small deficit elsewhere.  Similar dynamic with strong white support for Ford in Greenville and Charleston.  If black proportion of vote is 15% in AL and 20% in SC, going 85% for Carter, then in both states the white vote would be split evenly.
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« Reply #35 on: November 24, 2020, 03:29:25 PM »

I think JFK. It’s possible Stevenson lost them both times and Truman definitely won them way back in 48. Highly doubt LBJ did and there’s no way Carter or Clinton did.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #36 on: January 10, 2021, 02:47:28 PM »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Is your argument that Carter won the white vote in Georgia in 1980?

I'm bumping this forward because I'm still seeking clarification on this.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #37 on: January 25, 2021, 01:41:48 AM »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Is your argument that Carter won the white vote in Georgia in 1980?

I'm bumping this forward because I'm still seeking clarification on this.

No, my argument was about what was explicitly mentioned.

I don't think Carter won GA whites in 1980 but it was likely very close & I suppose depends on how many black voters went for Anderson. If patterns then were in line with more contemporary patterns, then it's quite possible that 3P candidates got 5% of the white vote (and next to no black vote). I think it's safe to say that Carter got at least 45% of the white vote in 1980.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #38 on: January 25, 2021, 09:20:25 PM »

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Quote

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Is your argument that Carter won the white vote in Georgia in 1980?

I'm bumping this forward because I'm still seeking clarification on this.

No, my argument was about what was explicitly mentioned.

I don't think Carter won GA whites in 1980 but it was likely very close & I suppose depends on how many black voters went for Anderson. If patterns then were in line with more contemporary patterns, then it's quite possible that 3P candidates got 5% of the white vote (and next to no black vote). I think it's safe to say that Carter got at least 45% of the white vote in 1980.

This would seem to be plausible.
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