Jamaica general election, 3 September 2020

[Mike88]

Jamaica will hold early elections next Thursday, September 3rd. Elections were schedule to happen between 25 February and 10 June 2021, but PM Andrew Holness decided to call early elections, even in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Polls suggest a comfortable win for PM Andrew Holness party, the JLP (Jamaica Labour Party), that despite its name is a center-right party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Jamaican_general_election

[njwes]

I'm curious if you know how big of a difference there actually is between the two main parties? From my (admitted cursory) review of the wiki articles and the two parties' websites, it doesn't seem like they're enormously different on the fundamentals, other than the Monarchy--but even that is a tad vague.

[Suburbia]

JLP is a center-right party.

Their former leader, Edward Seaga, who died in 2019, was a rightwinger and Bob Marley wrote songs about him.

He was Reagan's best friend in the Caribbean.

I think JLP wins

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Both JLP and the PNP have strange similarities from their origins: both were born from the labour movement, created as personal vessels for two men (Norman Manley for Labour, Alexander Bustamante for the PNP) who shared much in common - both light-skinned, both middle-class, both of not hugely different ideologies and worldviews and, um, both first cousins. The PNP was founded first, naming itself as such because it opposed the rich and white elite who largely hogged the franchise till then. During WW2 the Jamaican labour movement under Bustamante formed its own party after he was released from prison by the British and the the two men clashed over strategy (the JLP was more inclined to work with the British than the PNP). The JLP carried on in power until the PNP won an election promising full independence for the West Indies Federation. Then politics transitioned into a battle on whether this new Federation was a good thing or not (JLP said no, PNP said yes). Manley staked his political career David Cameron style on a a withdrawal referendum, campaigning for a "No" vote on the race he called himself; something which went as well for him as it did for DCam.

The parties became a bit more ideogically distinct under Manley's son Michael: he was a classic Third World socialist of his era: forging ties with Cuba, poking American-owned bauxite mines and, a bit more uniquely for Jamaica, forging ties with Haile Selassie and managing to basically convert JAmaica's Rastafari population to his party. The JLP also radicalised under (white-skinned) Edward Seaga, becoming your standard Cold Warrior agents for America; helpful as Manley's government lost control of the economy and had to be bailed out by the IMF (a lot of the middle-class also emigrated at this stage). At this point, politics, far from the (relatively) genteel family affair of early years got very nasty, with both parties openly descending into gangsterism and demogouery, culminating in the incredibly violent 1980 "election" (more of an island-wide gunfight), which following a JLP win, was followed by a boycotted 1983 snap election. Happily things did not descend further into the mire: both Manley and Seaga moderated, with the former seeing the winds in the air in regards to international socialism and the latter realising that being PM meant you sometimes had to say no to greedy American investors.

During the 90's, the PNP returned, first under the the old Manley, then under Jamaica's first black President P. J. Patterson; a moderate stalwart who governed largely under standard Third Way doctrine; before himself giving way to Portia Simpson-Miller. Seaga also stayed on, giving up in the mid-2000's as he could no longer play his game; his successor Bruce Golding tried to moderate further, even attacking the PNP from the left to win power; till he resigned in 2011 for trying to block the extradition of a drug kingpin to the US.

Anyway, Holness is a largely well-liked incumbent and the PNP seems to be in a bit of a fugue, so the JLP should see its first every re-election in the independence era (not counting 1983, seeing as everyone boycotted that one).

[DC Al Fine]

Any interesting demographic patterns to note?

[Lord Halifax]

Both JLP and the PNP have strange similarities from their origins: both were born from the labour movement, created as personal vessels for two men (Norman Manley for Labour, Alexander Bustamante for the PNP)

No, PNP for Manley and JLP for Bustamente.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Both JLP and the PNP have strange similarities from their origins: both were born from the labour movement, created as personal vessels for two men (Norman Manley for Labour, Alexander Bustamante for the PNP)

No, PNP for Manley and JLP for Bustamente.

yes, you're quite right; I mistyped

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Any interesting demographic patterns to note?

PNP gets pretty much all the Rastafari vote, as I said earlier. They also get most of the vote in the bauxite areas, although not Welsh coal mine bulwarks. Both parties have their slum garrisons in Kingston that stem from the bad days; although the PNP obviously dominate in the affluent uptown of the city.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/front-page/jlp-holds-19-points-lead-36-of-respondents-say-they-ll-vote-for-ruling-party-17-say-pnp_200383?profile=1606

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/editorial/whip-hand-for-mr-andrew-holness-and-the-jlp_200527?profile=1100

In terms of age, part of the PNP's weakness is that a lot of people are only voting for them because of their legacy, which as you can expect has led to weak results with the youth. Holness meanwhile is charismatic and dynamic with the newfangled social medias, while the PNP is led by an old dude who was recently stricken with cancer.

[Mike88]

Election day is today.

Turnout seems to be quite low. At 11am, only 16% had voted, and by 2pm, 31% had cast a ballot. Polls close in 10 minutes, I believe.

Resuts pages:

https://electionmap.trnd.ly/

http://election.jamaicaobserver.com/

http://jamaica-elections.com/general/2020/results/

[Mike88]

First national results:

61.0% JLP, 0 seats
38.8% PNP, 0

[warandwar]

The major issue raised by the PNP was Holness calling for an election under COVID, which shows how high they thought their chances were. Crime has gone up and the economic situation is the same sh**t it's been since the IMF came in and Manley's attempt to create OPEC for Bauxite fell through. But Holness has been creating temporary states of exception for the police to run ransack. Given him a tough on crime image and crucially, the Americans haven't intervened. (The JLP was traditionally associated with Tiffoli Gardens badmen like Dudus).

Crabcake - not only were Manley and Bustamonte close, but so were Manley and Seaga - educated together, I believe.

[Mike88]

Seats by party so far: (declared and leading) 56% in

48 JLP
15 PNP

[Mike88]

Almost final results: (13 boxes to count)

57.0% JLP, 49 seats (+17)
42.8% PNP, 14 (-17)
  0.0% JAM, 0
  0.2% Independents, 0

37.3% Turnout

[CumbrianLefty]

That's quite a blowout.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amongst the usual PNP strongholds lost are Kingston Central and P.J. Patterson's old fiefdom of Westmoreland Eastern.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amongst the usual PNP strongholds lost are Kingston Central and P.J. Patterson's old fiefdom of Westmoreland Eastern.

Update! The embarrassing loss of Westmoreland Eastern has been overturned by late counting... which resulted in a tie. Which the Returning Officer broke in favour of the PNP incumbent.

[Suburbia]

The major issue raised by the PNP was Holness calling for an election under COVID, which shows how high they thought their chances were. Crime has gone up and the economic situation is the same sh**t it's been since the IMF came in and Manley's attempt to create OPEC for Bauxite fell through. But Holness has been creating temporary states of exception for the police to run ransack. Given him a tough on crime image and crucially, the Americans haven't intervened. (The JLP was traditionally associated with Tiffoli Gardens badmen like Dudus).

Crabcake - not only were Manley and Bustamonte close, but so were Manley and Seaga - educated together, I believe.

Dudus still has a stain on the JLP.

A lot of people feel the PNP did not have a message.

They need to get back to the PJ Patterson days if they want to win.

http://old.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20021017/lead/lead1.html

[warandwar]

Peter Phillips resigned, making him the only leader of the Comrades never to have been PM. Looked very sick, unfortunately.

Turnout was 37.2%, very very low.

The PNP's silver lining - forner Miss World Lisa Hanna won, she might be the next leader...

[Suburbia]

Both JLP and the PNP have strange similarities from their origins: both were born from the labour movement, created as personal vessels for two men (Norman Manley for Labour, Alexander Bustamante for the PNP) who shared much in common - both light-skinned, both middle-class, both of not hugely different ideologies and worldviews and, um, both first cousins. The PNP was founded first, naming itself as such because it opposed the rich and white elite who largely hogged the franchise till then. During WW2 the Jamaican labour movement under Bustamante formed its own party after he was released from prison by the British and the the two men clashed over strategy (the JLP was more inclined to work with the British than the PNP). The JLP carried on in power until the PNP won an election promising full independence for the West Indies Federation. Then politics transitioned into a battle on whether this new Federation was a good thing or not (JLP said no, PNP said yes). Manley staked his political career David Cameron style on a a withdrawal referendum, campaigning for a "No" vote on the race he called himself; something which went as well for him as it did for DCam.

The parties became a bit more ideogically distinct under Manley's son Michael: he was a classic Third World socialist of his era: forging ties with Cuba, poking American-owned bauxite mines and, a bit more uniquely for Jamaica, forging ties with Haile Selassie and managing to basically convert JAmaica's Rastafari population to his party. The JLP also radicalised under (white-skinned) Edward Seaga, becoming your standard Cold Warrior agents for America; helpful as Manley's government lost control of the economy and had to be bailed out by the IMF (a lot of the middle-class also emigrated at this stage). At this point, politics, far from the (relatively) genteel family affair of early years got very nasty, with both parties openly descending into gangsterism and demogouery, culminating in the incredibly violent 1980 "election" (more of an island-wide gunfight), which following a JLP win, was followed by a boycotted 1983 snap election. Happily things did not descend further into the mire: both Manley and Seaga moderated, with the former seeing the winds in the air in regards to international socialism and the latter realising that being PM meant you sometimes had to say no to greedy American investors.

During the 90's, the PNP returned, first under the the old Manley, then under Jamaica's first black President P. J. Patterson; a moderate stalwart who governed largely under standard Third Way doctrine; before himself giving way to Portia Simpson-Miller. Seaga also stayed on, giving up in the mid-2000's as he could no longer play his game; his successor Bruce Golding tried to moderate further, even attacking the PNP from the left to win power; till he resigned in 2011 for trying to block the extradition of a drug kingpin to the US.

Anyway, Holness is a largely well-liked incumbent and the PNP seems to be in a bit of a fugue, so the JLP should see its first every re-election in the independence era (not counting 1983, seeing as everyone boycotted that one).

Some feel that the JLP is a "light-skinned, white Jamaican" party that is a pro-tax cut party like the Republican Party.

https://twitter.com/Marie24Dee/status/1296838219082997761

It looks like colorism is everywhere in the world.

Seaga, Golding, and Holness are all light-skinned Jamaicans.

https://twitter.com/NestaJA/status/1276930652710096898