MT - Global Strategy Group (D): Gianforte +1% (Gianforte +4% in June GSG (D) poll)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/RonjaAbel/status/1300454657051881472

[MT Treasurer]

"Newest poll finds the highly competitive race for Montana governor between lifelong Montanan @CooneyforMT and New Jersey multimillionaire @GregforMontana statistically tied."

Sounds very trustworthy. The race has tightened a little since June, but it’s no better than Tilt R for Cooney, and I still think Gianforte is ahead by a little more than this (+3-4).

[Xing]

If even this poll finds Gianforte (slightly) ahead, it's definitely Lean R at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

If Republicans lose the Senate/House/White House, flipping MT-GOV would likely be the only major consolation prize for the party. I’m not even old enough to really remember the Martz years because it’s been such a long time since the state last had a R governor (especially one as conservative as Gianforte), so going from Bullock and his veto pen to a Republican trifecta under Gianforte would be quite a political sea change. Only DE, WA, and OR have had Republican governors less recently than MT; it’s easily the most important statewide/non-federal election in MT in a long time.

[Roll Roons]

If Republicans lose the Senate/House/White House, flipping MT-GOV would likely be the only major consolation prize for the party. I’m not even old enough to really remember the Martz years because it’s been such a long time since the state last had a R governor (especially one as conservative as Gianforte), so going from Bullock and his veto pen to a Republican trifecta under Gianforte would be quite a political sea change. Only DE, WA, and OR have had Republican governors less recently than MT; it’s easily the most important statewide/non-federal election in MT in a long time.

Also AL-Sen unless it's a really massive landslide.

[Canis]

Describe a Biden/Cooney/Daines Voter

[MT Treasurer]

If Republicans lose the Senate/House/White House, flipping MT-GOV would likely be the only major consolation prize for the party. I’m not even old enough to really remember the Martz years because it’s been such a long time since the state last had a R governor (especially one as conservative as Gianforte), so going from Bullock and his veto pen to a Republican trifecta under Gianforte would be quite a political sea change. Only DE, WA, and OR have had Republican governors less recently than MT; it’s easily the most important statewide/non-federal election in MT in a long time.

Also AL-Sen unless it's a really massive landslide.

That’s definitely true (you could also add some of the other competitive Senate races they might hold even on a good night for Democrats, e.g. KS/IA/TX/etc.), but losing the Senate would still hurt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT is a tilt D race at the Gov Level, unlike Bullock whom is against Keystone, Cooney is for Keystone which will help him

[Xing]

Describe a Biden/Cooney/Daines Voter

A bipartisan moderate who rejects wealthy elitists from the East Coast for real, down-to-earth, folksy retail politicians.

[Hope For A New Era]

And there goes the last state where politics isn't dictated entirely by hyperpartisanship and the state's partisan lean. Sad!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kate Williams can will the MT AL House race after all

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Kate Williams can will the MT AL House race after all

Williams can win MT at large, because Cooney is losing in his own internals.

Sound logic as always, Mr Kayne West.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kate Williams can will the MT AL House race after all

Williams can win MT at large, because Cooney is losing in his own internals.

Sound logic as always, Mr Kayne West.

The last polls shows Cooney only slightly behind in every poll against Gianforte only 4 pts behind. The plus 9 in the last poll was the only poll that was outside the margin of error.

The only poll that matters is election day

[Pericles]

Technically Gianforte is more well-liked than Cooney in that poll, as 43% favorability is more than 42% favorability. But of course his net favorability is much worse.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Technically Gianforte is more well-liked than Cooney in that poll, as 43% favorability is more than 42% favorability. But of course his net favorability is much worse.

Cooney has to hope Gianforte's margin is inflated by a name ID advantage that would be easier to account for by November than any advantage as a result of other powers of persuasion.

The longer he doesn't boost his own recognition, however, the easier it becomes for Gianforte to define his opponent's candidacy.

[MT Treasurer]

And there goes the last state where politics isn't dictated entirely by hyperpartisanship and the state's partisan lean. Sad!

Cooney isn’t losing because of hyperpartisanship, he’s losing because GF has been running a more effective campaign so far. If hyperpartisanship/partisan lean dictated the outcome of every election in the state, Bullock would be nowhere near as competitive in the Senate race as he still is.

[Roll Roons]

And there goes the last state where politics isn't dictated entirely by hyperpartisanship and the state's partisan lean. Sad!

Cooney isn’t losing because of hyperpartisanship, he’s losing because GF has been running a more effective campaign so far. If hyperpartisanship/partisan lean dictated the outcome of every election in the state, Bullock would be nowhere near as competitive in the Senate race as he still is.

Even if they lose the governorship, how likely do you think it is that Democrats win at least one row office this year?

[MT Treasurer]

And there goes the last state where politics isn't dictated entirely by hyperpartisanship and the state's partisan lean. Sad!

Cooney isn’t losing because of hyperpartisanship, he’s losing because GF has been running a more effective campaign so far. If hyperpartisanship/partisan lean dictated the outcome of every election in the state, Bullock would be nowhere near as competitive in the Senate race as he still is.

Even if they lose the governorship, how likely do you think it is that Democrats win at least one row office this year?

Well, the fact that so many of them are open definitely helps. Unless you count "nonpartisan" judicial races (which we probably should, if we’re being honest -- Democrats would like to see McKinnon defeated in the Supreme Court election this year), I think they have a decent shot at flipping AG, which is pretty much the most important state executive office after GOV and will probably track the gubernatorial race pretty closely. While I certainly don’t dispute his conservative credentials, I don’t think nominating Knudsen over Bennion (who’s hardly a RINO) was a wise decision on the part of Republican primary voters for a variety of reasons (mostly but not solely because he’s much easier to paint as an extremist), and Graybill has been running a pretty effective campaign so far (tying himself to Bullock, campaigning on themes like consumer protection which probably resonate more with voters than Knudsen's ‘legalistic’ interpretation of the AG office, exploiting Knudsen's opposition to Medicaid expansion, etc.). I think that race is going to be way closer than it should be, and Knudsen will probably need Gianforte to perform well to feel good about his chances (both GF and Knudsen have been pretty vocal about supporting each other, too). I’d rate that race Tilt R.

The other offices aren’t safe for Republicans either, but they’ll require more effort for Democrats to flip. If I had to rank them from most likely to least likely to flip, it would be Superintendent of Public Instruction (Lean R) > Auditor (Lean/Likely R) > Secretary of State (Likely R, but you could make a case for Lean R as well). I do think you’ll see much less split-ticket voting this year than in any election in the past, and it could very well be that Republicans end up sweeping all or almost all the statewide and federal races by single-digit margins. Many of the down-ballot races are being overshadowed by the GOV/SEN/AL campaigns and the pandemic (which mostly benefits Republicans), but that could still change (debates for some of the races haven’t even aired yet).