CO-Morning Consult: Hickenlooper +9
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 29, 2024, 12:42:59 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  CO-Morning Consult: Hickenlooper +9
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: CO-Morning Consult: Hickenlooper +9  (Read 586 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,753
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 03, 2020, 03:38:30 PM »

Aug 21-30, 638 LV, MoE: 4%

Hickenlooper (D) 48%
Gardner (R, inc.) 39%

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/03/majority-makers-colorado-senate-hickenlooper-gardner/
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,594
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 03:39:53 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2020, 03:45:02 PM by Western Democrat »

Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2020, 03:42:14 PM »

Changes with July 17-26 poll

Hickenlooper 48% (n/c)
Gardner 39% (-3)

Not quite safe D yet as Hickenlooper is not a challenger without name recognition and he is only +9 and under 50%, but soon this will be a Democratic lock. Hickenlooper just needs to stop screwing up and it will happen.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,551
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2020, 03:43:54 PM »

Hickenlooper should be doing better than this, but Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

Hick is only doing a point worse than Biden.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2020, 03:44:56 PM »

Leave the guy alone.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,594
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2020, 03:45:55 PM »

Hickenlooper should be doing better than this, but Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

Hick is only doing a point worse than Biden.

Yeah, that was before I saw Biden’s numbers. Hickenlooper isn’t doing to bad. The “scandal” doesn’t seem to really have an effect.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,030
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2020, 03:46:37 PM »

I really wish Hickenlooper hadn't gotten in.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,784


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2020, 04:04:16 PM »

People here really overblow Hickenlooper's 'scandals"
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2020, 04:12:07 PM »

Hickenlooper should be doing better than this, but Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

Hick is only doing a point worse than Biden.

Yeah, that was before I saw Biden’s numbers. Hickenlooper isn’t doing to bad. The “scandal” doesn’t seem to really have an effect.

It’s possibly faded a bit, but he’s still underperforming against an ineffective campaigner who’s often polled as the country’s least popular Senator and is certainly not the electoral powerhouse he was once said to be (Hickenlooper used to outpoll the top of the ticket). The race remains likely D because of the candidate.

This page has a tracker for previous Senate polls here, which is neat.
Logged
kph14
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2020, 04:47:23 PM »

I don't really understand their crosstabs

Democrats: Hick 91-0
Independents: Hick 54-25
Republicans: Gardner 88-3

There are (a) more Democrats (30%) than Republican (28%) and (b) even more Independents (42%) in the state. If you use those shares you come up with a 51-35 margin.

I guess turnout will be a factor but still those numbers look more like a 12-14 point margin
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,919
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2020, 04:51:11 PM »

Hickenlooper should be doing better than this, but Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

Hick is only doing a point worse than Biden.

This doesn't surprise me at all. I said elsewhere the other day that Hickenlooper and Biden will both probably win by about the same margin as the end, given how inflexible and polarized Colorado's voting habits are (a post which can be found here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=390829.msg7543632;topicseen#msg7543632), which was demonstrated perfectly by the 2018 midterms. My prediction continues to be that both will win by around 10-11%, the same margin as Jared Polis over Walker Stapleton in 2018.

At any rate, this race remains, as it has been for over two years now, Likely/Safe D, closer to Safe than Likely. Hickenlooper has certainly disappointed me, but that's not going to stop me from voting for him, and I still think he'll be a good Senator once he actually gets in.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2020, 05:36:01 PM »

Obligatory reminder that the NRSC is prioritizing CO/AZ over MI/MN.
Logged
SenatorCouzens
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 267
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2020, 10:56:01 PM »

It's good to finally see a poll for this race.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,156


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2020, 11:12:20 PM »

Obligatory reminder that the NRSC is prioritizing CO/AZ over MI/MN.

Big mistake, but in this environment they might need to triage all four. Or perhaps just focus on MI as an extra target in case they lose too many seats elsewhere, but mainly focus on preserving the majority. Of course, I hope the NRSC keeps being incompetent and makes it ever so slightly easier for Chuck Schumer to become Majority Leader.
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2020, 04:12:51 AM »

Obligatory reminder that the NRSC is prioritizing CO/AZ over MI/MN.
They are stuck in the past, dreaming of the days when the four corners are all red once again.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.24 seconds with 13 queries.