CO-Morning Consult: Hickenlooper +9

[VAR]

Aug 21-30, 638 LV, MoE: 4%

Hickenlooper (D) 48%
Gardner (R, inc.) 39%

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/03/majority-makers-colorado-senate-hickenlooper-gardner/

[WD]

Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with July 17-26 poll

Hickenlooper 48% (n/c)
Gardner 39% (-3)

Not quite safe D yet as Hickenlooper is not a challenger without name recognition and he is only +9 and under 50%, but soon this will be a Democratic lock. Hickenlooper just needs to stop screwing up and it will happen.

[Gass3268]

Hickenlooper should be doing better than this, but Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

Hick is only doing a point worse than Biden.

[Person Man]

Leave the guy alone.

[WD]

Hickenlooper should be doing better than this, but Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

Hick is only doing a point worse than Biden.

Yeah, that was before I saw Biden’s numbers. Hickenlooper isn’t doing to bad. The “scandal” doesn’t seem to really have an effect.

[SnowLabrador]

I really wish Hickenlooper hadn't gotten in.

[wbrocks67]

People here really overblow Hickenlooper's 'scandals"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hickenlooper should be doing better than this, but Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

Hick is only doing a point worse than Biden.

Yeah, that was before I saw Biden’s numbers. Hickenlooper isn’t doing to bad. The “scandal” doesn’t seem to really have an effect.

It’s possibly faded a bit, but he’s still underperforming against an ineffective campaigner who’s often polled as the country’s least popular Senator and is certainly not the electoral powerhouse he was once said to be (Hickenlooper used to outpoll the top of the ticket). The race remains likely D because of the candidate.

This page has a tracker for previous Senate polls here, which is neat.

[kph14]

I don't really understand their crosstabs

Democrats: Hick 91-0
Independents: Hick 54-25
Republicans: Gardner 88-3

There are (a) more Democrats (30%) than Republican (28%) and (b) even more Independents (42%) in the state. If you use those shares you come up with a 51-35 margin.

I guess turnout will be a factor but still those numbers look more like a 12-14 point margin

[Calthrina950]

Hickenlooper should be doing better than this, but Safe D. An incumbent under 40% 2 months out is a Dead man walking.

Hick is only doing a point worse than Biden.

This doesn't surprise me at all. I said elsewhere the other day that Hickenlooper and Biden will both probably win by about the same margin as the end, given how inflexible and polarized Colorado's voting habits are (a post which can be found here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=390829.msg7543632;topicseen#msg7543632), which was demonstrated perfectly by the 2018 midterms. My prediction continues to be that both will win by around 10-11%, the same margin as Jared Polis over Walker Stapleton in 2018.

At any rate, this race remains, as it has been for over two years now, Likely/Safe D, closer to Safe than Likely. Hickenlooper has certainly disappointed me, but that's not going to stop me from voting for him, and I still think he'll be a good Senator once he actually gets in.

[MT Treasurer]

Obligatory reminder that the NRSC is prioritizing CO/AZ over MI/MN.

[SenatorCouzens]

It's good to finally see a poll for this race.

[Pericles]

Obligatory reminder that the NRSC is prioritizing CO/AZ over MI/MN.

Big mistake, but in this environment they might need to triage all four. Or perhaps just focus on MI as an extra target in case they lose too many seats elsewhere, but mainly focus on preserving the majority. Of course, I hope the NRSC keeps being incompetent and makes it ever so slightly easier for Chuck Schumer to become Majority Leader.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Obligatory reminder that the NRSC is prioritizing CO/AZ over MI/MN.

They are stuck in the past, dreaming of the days when the four corners are all red once again.