2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[forza nocta]

I got my ballot a few days ago, but I dont want to open it yet for some reason. If Biden does well tonight, I’ll fill it out and send it tomorrow lol

[forza nocta]

Someone on reddit has created a graph comparing the early voting totals so far to the 2016 early vote. Cool to see.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14y7P-fiUDzSuGbxroSpbjBAXOvo4eNdqnclU3LTeeX4/htmlview#

Credit: https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/jaf26c/oc_visualization_of_early_vote_totals_comparing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

[forza nocta]

So Harris county doubled the 2016 early vote, while Dallas did LESS? Why the big difference

[forza nocta]

At least 600k early votes in Texas on Day 1, and thats with a few big counties missing.

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1316225198643908609?s=21

[forza nocta]

According to the Tennesse's SOS website, the 273k number is Day 1 early voting and absentee ballots combined. The Day 1 early vote only total in TN were 167,094, which is still great. I believe it's higher than Georgia which has a higher population and is a battleground.

https://sos-tn-gov-files.tnsosfiles.com/20201103EarlyAbsentee.pdf

[forza nocta]

I don't understand how anyone can take TargetSmart seriously. There is only one state that has party registration breakdowns where Republicans lead the early vote, and thats South Dakota .In literally every other state with the actual breakdowns, including deep red states like OK, KS, NE and KY,  Dems are leading, and sometimes dominating over the GOP.

In the midwestern states that has party breakdowns (PA and Iowa), Dems are dominating even more. But TargetSmart has people believing that the GOP leads in similar states like Wisconsin and Michigan?? Its infuriating to me because I'm seeing legitimate people on TV/media actually amplyifying TargetSmarts #s and making the conclusion that Biden/Dems are doing badly in states like Michigan and Wisconsin.

[forza nocta]

Harris County is an absolute juggernaut

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317239801909751810?s=20

[forza nocta]

Lol why is Texas randomly dominating in turnout? Nearly 40% in 4 days??? Insane.

[forza nocta]

Lol why is Texas randomly dominating in turnout? Nearly 40% in 4 days??? Insane.

I saw someone point out on Twitter about the turnout, and they’re right, that Texas was bottom 5 in turnout in 2016 and they just barely hit 50%. So their “turnout from 2016 %” is a little inflated since it was so low in 2016 to begin with,  which makes more sense. Regardless though, turnout is still high as of right now and is gaining fast.

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

Maybe, but also Biden kinda did triage the state basically

With the strong momentum around flipping the State House and the heavy-lifting by TX Dems, Beto, Hegar & now the Senate Majority PAC, Biden "triaging" the state probably doesn't make much of a difference

Why is Biden triaging the state though?  It's clearly going to be much closer than it as in 2016 and Biden has much more money than Trump.

They literally sent Jill Biden there this week and the polling averages Biden’s campaign manager was putting out had Texas at like Trump +1.5. I doubt they’re triaging the state as they’ve been on and off with ads in the state all cycle.

[forza nocta]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

You could've stopped typing there. TargetSmart is garbage.

[forza nocta]

I don't know if this was expected/known or not, but St. Pete's last FL poll (that had Biden up) had Repubs outnumbering Dems in who was planning to vote early, 22R, 19D, 18I. So I guess it shouldn't be a surprise to see them leading.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_October12_H5NX8.pdf

[forza nocta]

at least 6 states over 50% of 2016 totals now: Texas, Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey, Vermont, North Carolina.

A bit of a strange group (I'm looking at you, NM, NJ and VT)

NJ and VT are doing all-mail ballot elections, so it's not a surprise that they are high up.