2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 166576 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« on: September 03, 2020, 06:47:32 PM »

Here are two maps I've made of the mail vote requests in North Carolina through yesterday:

Partisan breakdown of requests by county:


Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2020, 09:59:00 AM »

Here are two maps I've made of the mail vote requests in North Carolina through yesterday:

Partisan breakdown of requests by county:


Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

How is the bottom map supposed to be read?

The darker the shade, the closer that county is to reaching the amount of votes it cast in 2016 in ballot requests.
I get that, but what are the percentages we are working with here?

If 5 Mio. votes were cast in NC in 2016 and there are now 0.6 Mio. requests, it’s ca. 10% in each county.

Maybe more like 15-20% in the urban counties and below 10% in the rural ones.

Yeah, the darkest shades so far are 20-29% in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area and west of Wilmington. The rest is mixed between 10-19% and 0-10%, which are kind of hard to distinguish using Atlas colors.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2020, 02:17:53 PM »

32 votes are in!



Already doing better than the Iowa Democratic caucuses!
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2020, 10:00:34 AM »

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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2020, 01:35:40 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2020, 01:49:09 PM by Crumpets »



Before anybody gets all up in a tizzy over how this will destroy the integrity of elections, let me explain what this looks like in the real world. I once had a ballot rejected because my signature had changed too much since when I first registered when I was 18. Signing hundreds of receipts can do that. The elections office wrote me to tell me my ballot would be rejected unless I sent in three new signatures for them to match against. After I sent that in, they counted my ballot.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2020, 02:10:17 PM »

As I satiate my need to put election data on maps, here's a map of Democratic ballot requests as a percent of Hillary's final vote count in 2016. Doesn't seem to tell us too much at this point except that the heavily black rural areas in the northeast seem to be behind in requests and college areas are ahead.



Lightest color = 0-10% of Clinton's final vote share
Middle color = 10-20% of Clinton's final vote share
Darker color = 20-30% of Clinton's final vote share
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2020, 12:39:10 PM »

The only thing I'm really looking for in these numbers is which demographic groups seem to have unusually high/low enthusiasm for the election. Some states like Nevada tend to have pretty clear correlations between the early vote and the final vote, but those are few and far between.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2020, 09:21:44 PM »

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

That's true.  It was definitely an MSNBC talking point too.  I think that election was a lot more unpredictable though.  This one is pretty stable.  If Biden can get his people out he should win because the polls aren't fluctuating much.  High turnout will be a good sign.  Trump probably needs a low turnout election so his 40% base makes up a bigger share of the electorate. But we need to be cautious.

I remember seeing the early vote in Florida and North Carolina and believing the election was in the bag for Clinton. *sigh*

There was definitely an entire episode of Lawrence O'Donnell claiming that one Clinton +7 poll in Florida basically meant they could call the election for her.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2020, 03:46:40 PM »

Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:


Update of this map:

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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2020, 01:01:24 PM »

I've voted by mail for years and I had no idea that putting the ballot in the secrecy envelope was required. I always did it and I suspect Washington is more lenient than Pennsylvania regardless, but it definitely isn't clear that it's not just "here's a thing to put your ballot in before it goes in the bigger envelope."
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2020, 01:40:07 PM »

I've voted by mail for years and I had no idea that putting the ballot in the secrecy envelope was required. I always did it and I suspect Washington is more lenient than Pennsylvania regardless, but it definitely isn't clear that it's not just "here's a thing to put your ballot in before it goes in the bigger envelope."

I mean, it doesn't really make sense to just send your ballot back by itself though? Especially if you are dropping it off at a dropbox or even mailing it back. You're not gonna dump the ballot into a drop box if it can easily be opened without being sealed in any way.

Like really, I don't see why anyone would think it wouldn't need to go into the envelope that literally says "Balot"

I can't speak for how it works in Pennsylvania, but in Washington, you are sent an envelope inside which are two more envelopes - a secrecy envelope and a return envelope - as well as the ballot. When you drop off your ballot either at the dropbox or mail box, you definitely put it in the larger, official-looking envelope, and that is the envelope you have to sign for them to verify your signature. But, I can easily see someone just doing that without also putting it in the secrecy envelope which, here in Washington, serves the sole purpose of making it so that someone like a mail carrier can't hold the ballot up to the light to see how you voted and throw it out, and is just labeled "secrecy envelope." It doesn't provide any additional level of "sealing" as it's just effectively a sleeve of two sheets of paper.

Here's a picture of the envelopes we get. The top one is the return envelope that everyone will definitely use, and the bottom one is the secrecy envelope.



Also looking at that image, it does appear in Washington they accept ballots returned without the secrecy envelope.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2020, 10:23:47 AM »

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

The Hampton Roads region as a whole seems to lean slightly Democratic but I feel like it will be the region that gives Democrats the most headaches under any Democratic president. Will not even be close to being a solid GOP region but its relatively large population is what would cause some handwringing in close state wide races.

In the Hampton Roads region Democratic support depends very much on minority turnout which tends to plummet in non-presidential elections

If the scattered reports of Trump's anti-military comments losing him a lot of support among military families are true, Hampton Roads could trend hard to the Democrats this year regardless of black turnout.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2020, 04:12:13 PM »

New Hampshire has started today to publish its absentee ballot request numbers (hopefully they add returned ballots later):
https://sos.nh.gov/elections/information/notices/absentee-ballots-requested-for-general-election/

It currently stands at 148,630 (20% of 2016's total turnout)

I can't wait for election eve when Hart's Landing and Dixville Notch go to report their numbers and it comes back as "early vote totals pending."
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2020, 03:42:08 PM »

Just looking at WI and NC, it looks like early voting is particularly strong in college counties and more neither-here-nor-there in major urban centers. I suspect students who might be doing school remotely are more keen to get voting out of the way as early as possible and might have been planning to vote absentee regardless while the concept might be newer to more settled urban types.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2020, 08:49:20 AM »

Wow. When she was born, women were still 2 years away from getting the right to vote. Massive FF.

When she was born, it was probably also a good time to wear PPE while voting.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2020, 03:14:22 PM »



This may be the millennial in me showing, but I can't imagine "Hedwig Village" as being anything other than a massive stare of owls.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2020, 03:35:54 PM »



This may be the millennial in me showing, but I can't imagine "Hedwig Village" as being anything other than a massive stare of owls.

Haha! We used to run through there for cross country practice.

Interesting story [checks notes] riceOWL. I rest my case.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2020, 05:17:45 AM »

I'm fine with saying there's no value in using early voting to predict the outcome (except in Nevada), but we'd better not hear any "OMG Harris County turnout is so light. No lines at all! Dems in disarray!" on election day after what we're seeing there now.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2020, 08:57:55 AM »

The US Elections Project has turnout in Texas at 59.2% of the 2016 vote. I can't see this being anything other than the highest possible turnout model in polls for the state. We should look at anything with a high likely voter screen with some level of skepticism.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2020, 09:33:18 AM »

The US Elections Project has turnout in Texas at 59.2% of the 2016 vote. I can't see this being anything other than the highest possible turnout model in polls for the state. We should look at anything with a high likely voter screen with some level of skepticism.

You mean look at anything with a low likely voter screen with skepticism?

I don't know the wording. If they have a very high standard for what constitutes a likely voter, treat it with skepticism.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2020, 10:44:29 AM »

We've officially hit 40,000,000 votes nation-wide.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2020, 10:54:07 AM »

!!!





Wow! I wonder if there's some Doug Jones effect here of people who had thought their vote didn't count for anything reconsidering after seeing him barely win next door.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2020, 01:12:03 PM »

Electronic voting machines might as well be "online voting" in terms of security. It's not like they exist outside the internet, as they all need to have access to software patches, updates, etc.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2020, 05:38:31 PM »

Wait, Michael McDonald is a GOP operative? Huh

 I always thought he was just a nonpartisan numbers guy.

Clearly he's not making so much on Doobie Brothers royalties anymore and needs the cash. :/
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2020, 08:20:40 AM »

Just dropped off my ballot at the shipping place!

This is 100% anecdotal, but maybe a bit more informative than some other anecdotal turnout reports: The guy at Mail Boxes, Etc. said that they were shipping "far more ballots than in 2016." If high early/absentee/mail turnout in the US can be written off as "well, it's because of the pandemic," the fact that students overseas (who still had no other choice but to vote by mail in 2016) are getting increased turnout might show it's not entirely down to COVID or Republican attempts to hinder mail-in ballots.
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