2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Bootes Void]

Any early voting updates from Ohio?

[kph14]

Does anyone know why PA is so slow to report?  The philly burbs in particular.

He is an article about that (voters can't see that their ballot has arrived). Montgomery County is mentioned as an example. Seems to be because the counties are not capable to process them fast enough. It gives us a nice preview on what a mess the actual counting of these ballots is going to be.

https://whyy.org/articles/voters-should-not-worry-about-ballot-status-updates-says-pa-secretary-of-state/

[Gass3268]

Does anyone know why PA is so slow to report?  The philly burbs in particular.

He is an article about that (voters can't see that their ballot has arrived). Montgomery County is mentioned as an example. Seems to be because the counties are not capable to process them fast enough. It gives us a nice preview on what a mess the actual counting of these ballots is going to be.

https://whyy.org/articles/voters-should-not-worry-about-ballot-status-updates-says-pa-secretary-of-state/

This is the same issue that Pima County, Arizona (Tucson) is experiencing.

[riceowl]

Sigh, SCOTUS says Alabama can ban curbside voting https://twitter.com/scotusreporter/status/1319073360391917568

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone know why PA is so slow to report?  The philly burbs in particular.

He is an article about that (voters can't see that their ballot has arrived). Montgomery County is mentioned as an example. Seems to be because the counties are not capable to process them fast enough. It gives us a nice preview on what a mess the actual counting of these ballots is going to be.

https://whyy.org/articles/voters-should-not-worry-about-ballot-status-updates-says-pa-secretary-of-state/

Thanks.  And wow, Montgomery is really far behind:

"Lawrence said more than 115,000 ballots have been returned to the county through drop boxes or the mail and that with the deadline to apply for a mail-in ballot looming, people shouldn’t wait."

Right now it's only showing up as 76,000.  Good to hear that the turnout is higher.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Wednesday Final: 212,526 votes were cast on Wednesday.

This includes 154,868 in-person votes and 57,658 mail ballots. Today was the single-largest day of mail ballot receipt thus far. There are still roughly 900k mail ballots/applications outstanding beyond this figure.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,306,490 in-person & 818,081 by mail, for a grand total of 2,124,571 (51.00% of 2016 total vote).

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319080006346158081

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

That's a lot of votes in Georgia!

Too bad it'd be foolish to think it could flip as Kemp is gonna throw away all those Democratic votes and cause Trump to win 95-5. Not to mention, it's just not there yet (if it ever was) 

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319070541974745093

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319070541974745093

I think that's totally correct, and isn't that guy usually pro-GOP in his tweets?

People who are worried about the virus are more likely to vote absentee and more likely to vote Biden.  The independents voting that way are probably more lean Biden.  The southwest FL voters are probably very old so even if they are Republican I'd bet a bunch of them peel off to Biden.

This is why candidate quality matters.  The people Trump has offended (particularly old people) with his handling of covid who are no longer supporting him are much more easily convinced to jump ship to Biden than Bernie.  Every 1 vote switcher is like registering 2 new voters who vote.

[philly09]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z53F4993rlc

[new_patomic]

I am curious

I myself initially requested a mail ballot in Illinois, was issued one, but instead went and voted early.

But would it still show up as a requested ballot, and that it was never returned? A lot of people I think have done the same thing.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Some interesting returns by Congressional district in CA here: https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-returns-top-25-searches/

Dems way up so far in CA-25 and CA-50. Smaller lead in CA-22.

[philly09]

Some interesting returns by Congressional district in CA here: https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-returns-top-25-searches/

Dems way up so far in CA-25 and CA-50. Smaller lead in CA-22.

God, I hope Nunes goes down. Anything out of CA-23?

[Rep Jessica]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

[It’s so Joever]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

[kireev]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

May I remind you that the REP turnout in 2016 was 7 points higher than DEM turnout in 2016! We actually discussed that here several days ago. Yes, REPs may and probably will eventually catch up to DEMs in FL, but it's still going to be a big improvement for DEMs compared to 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

If my memory is correct, Rs led in the FL early vote in 2016. Definately not great news for Ds, but also not the end all be all. Also, as pointed out above, Republicans tend to show up in larger numbers in FL, but not all Republicans vote party line

[Hindsight was 2020]

Jessica’s Trumpism and Forumlurker’s doomer is such an annoying combination

[philly09]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

May I remind you that the REP turnout in 2016 was 7 points higher than DEM turnout in 2016! We actually discussed that here several days ago. Yes, REPs may and probably will eventually catch up to DEMs in FL, but it's still going to be a big improvement for DEMs compared to 2016.

Does anybody have the 2008 and 2012 numbers for reference so we can stop having these meltdowns every goddamn night?

[kireev]

Michael McDonald tweeted on Nov 1st, 2016, just a week before the election,  that DEM advantage in CO was 2.6% after just over a million votes. https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793477147964899328
We are at  1,237,892   votes 13 days before the election and DEM advantage is 16 points. The difference is pretty huge.

[Non Swing Voter]

OK so the Dem lead is down to 460k and 600k is probably not going to happen.  HOWEVER, this turnout is massive, which means that while the GOP is cutting the lead slowly but surely, there might not be many voters left for Election Day, so obviously Dems don't need a 600k vote cushion.  I mean, get serious, if the majority of people vote before Election Day, Dems don't need a massive cushion, they just need somewhat of a cushion.

And like others have said, a higher percentage of GOP voters vote than Dems whenever the GOP wins in Florida.  So the goal is to basically break even.  Biden will win independents and probably get more crossover voters in Florida than Trump does.

[Non Swing Voter]

Michael McDonald tweeted on Nov 1st, 2016, just a week before the election,  that DEM advantage in CO was 2.6% after just over a million votes. https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793477147964899328
We are at  1,237,892   votes 13 days before the election and DEM advantage is 16 points. The difference is pretty huge.

And spineless loser Cory Gardner will still vote for ACB to the Supreme Court.

[philly09]

Michael McDonald tweeted on Nov 1st, 2016, just a week before the election,  that DEM advantage in CO was 2.6% after just over a million votes. https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793477147964899328
We are at  1,237,892   votes 13 days before the election and DEM advantage is 16 points. The difference is pretty huge.

Neither Hillary, nor Biden were/are going to lose Colorado.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Michael McDonald tweeted on Nov 1st, 2016, just a week before the election,  that DEM advantage in CO was 2.6% after just over a million votes. https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793477147964899328
We are at  1,237,892   votes 13 days before the election and DEM advantage is 16 points. The difference is pretty huge.

And spineless loser Cory Gardner will still vote for ACB to the Supreme Court.

Why wouldn't he? He's a dead man walking either way.