2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[kph14]

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if any of the non-GA states had these policies as SOP prior to 2020, or if they were implemented precisely because of this year's situation.

In the case of AZ, it has usually taken days to get most/all of the mail ballots counted, so if the procedure hasn't changed since 2018, then there may still be a delay.

With FL, I'm guessing there was at least some semblance of this policy in effect prior, as the state generally gets the vast majority of its mail and non-mail vote alike counted on Election Night.

In GA and as far as I understand, it permits counties to begin 15 days prior but does not require them: with 159 counties, some may (and probably will) choose not to begin counting early, and others (particularly larger counties with notorious difficulties in counting) may still not work through the bulk by Election Night even if they begin 15 days in advance.

But generally, I'd say we'll know a lot about the nature of the evening from TX, GA, NC, FL & AZ much sooner than from WI, PA & MI.

Arizona has changed their laws in response to 2018 and allowed processing 14 days early for the first time in this years primary which I think had no significant counting delays:

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/04/arizona-primary-election-officials-mail-voting-delay-ballot-counting/5576602002/

[kph14]

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if any of the non-GA states had these policies as SOP prior to 2020, or if they were implemented precisely because of this year's situation.

In the case of AZ, it has usually taken days to get most/all of the mail ballots counted, so if the procedure hasn't changed since 2018, then there may still be a delay.

With FL, I'm guessing there was at least some semblance of this policy in effect prior, as the state generally gets the vast majority of its mail and non-mail vote alike counted on Election Night.

In GA and as far as I understand, it permits counties to begin 15 days prior but does not require them: with 159 counties, some may (and probably will) choose not to begin counting early, and others (particularly larger counties with notorious difficulties in counting) may still not work through the bulk by Election Night even if they begin 15 days in advance.

But generally, I'd say we'll know a lot about the nature of the evening from TX, GA, NC, FL & AZ much sooner than from WI, PA & MI.

I’m not too worried about Wisconsin. The process is so decentralized (each municipality/town counts their own votes and releases them all at once). Only place I’m worried could take time is Milwaukee as they’ve had some issues as recent as the August primary.

Maybe someone from Wisconsin can enlighten us here: but I think in the August primary absentee ballots and election day votes were reported together as parts of each precinct. Meaning that no election day vote in a precinct was reported unless the absentee vote in that precinct was also ready. Which in my opinion is a very good system. I might be wrong though.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

1.6 million out of the 4.2 million ballots here in FL have been sent out with Dems having a 300k lead on that

[Adam Griffin]

Michigan SoS: Prepare for Election Week

Michigan's secretary of state said on Sunday her state's full results of the Nov. 3 elections won't be available on Election Day, advising voters it could take a week for a final tally.

"We should be prepared for this to be closer to an election week as opposed to an election day," Jocelyn Benson said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "The bottom line is we are not going to have the full results and a counting of all of our ballots on election night. We already know that. We've asked the legislature to make changes to the laws to give us more ability to be prepared and count those ballots more efficiently."

But Benson added the legislature hasn't acted on her requests, though her office has increased tabulators and capacity to count ballots. The most important aspect to this year's elections, she said, is accuracy.

NC absentee requests are up over 1500% compared to this day 4 years ago:

61 Days Before 2016: 38,871
61 Days Before 2020: 643,400

[Dr. Arch]

Michigan SoS: Prepare for Election Week

Michigan's secretary of state said on Sunday her state's full results of the Nov. 3 elections won't be available on Election Day, advising voters it could take a week for a final tally.

"We should be prepared for this to be closer to an election week as opposed to an election day," Jocelyn Benson said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "The bottom line is we are not going to have the full results and a counting of all of our ballots on election night. We already know that. We've asked the legislature to make changes to the laws to give us more ability to be prepared and count those ballots more efficiently."

But Benson added the legislature hasn't acted on her requests, though her office has increased tabulators and capacity to count ballots. The most important aspect to this year's elections, she said, is accuracy.

NC absentee requests are up over 1500% compared to this day 4 years ago:

61 Days Before 2016: 38,871
61 Days Before 2020: 643,400

If people's minds are made up earlier, that means that there's no need to wait to make up your mind before voting. That might explain this insane surge when compared to a year with tons of undecided voters down to the last day.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, hoping PA, MI, WI are able to at least start counting a few days in advance instead of just on ED. Would really spare us a possible nightmare.

[Virginiá]

Yeah, hoping PA, MI, WI are able to at least start counting a few days in advance instead of just on ED. Would really spare us a possible nightmare.

It's pretty telling that the GOP isn't just against easy voting, but efficient elections in general. They don't just want restrictive rules that help them win, but also slow, disorganized elections that merely give them some room to claim fraud and sow doubt so they can avoid having to admit they legitimately lost. It's an underappreciated aspect of the Republican Party's reversion to conservative authoritarianism.

I won't say it is the same for all state parties - the PAGOP at least offered to give workers 3 days to process ballots before election day, but they bundled it with poison pills that Wolf/Democrats said they would reject, so it wasn't a sincere offer. But those such as the MI, WI, NC GOP et al are believers in power, not democracy.

[Gass3268]

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if any of the non-GA states had these policies as SOP prior to 2020, or if they were implemented precisely because of this year's situation.

In the case of AZ, it has usually taken days to get most/all of the mail ballots counted, so if the procedure hasn't changed since 2018, then there may still be a delay.

With FL, I'm guessing there was at least some semblance of this policy in effect prior, as the state generally gets the vast majority of its mail and non-mail vote alike counted on Election Night.

In GA and as far as I understand, it permits counties to begin 15 days prior but does not require them: with 159 counties, some may (and probably will) choose not to begin counting early, and others (particularly larger counties with notorious difficulties in counting) may still not work through the bulk by Election Night even if they begin 15 days in advance.

But generally, I'd say we'll know a lot about the nature of the evening from TX, GA, NC, FL & AZ much sooner than from WI, PA & MI.

I’m not too worried about Wisconsin. The process is so decentralized (each municipality/town counts their own votes and releases them all at once). Only place I’m worried could take time is Milwaukee as they’ve had some issues as recent as the August primary.

Maybe someone from Wisconsin can enlighten us here: but I think in the August primary absentee ballots and election day votes were reported together as parts of each precinct. Meaning that no election day vote in a precinct was reported unless the absentee vote in that precinct was also ready. Which in my opinion is a very good system. I might be wrong though.

Correct, Milwaukee is the only exception to this as they have more of a centralized election/counting process. At a recent Wisconsin Election Commission meeting Milwaukee expected that they would have all of their votes processed that night, with the very latest being early in the morning.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

1.9 million ballots now sent out today (an increase of 250k from yesterday) with Dems having a 310k lead here in FL

Democrats - 881,023
Republicans - 569,846
NPA - 406,308
Other parties (Libertarians, Greens, Prohibitionists, Constitutionalists) - 20,688

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1303339016989937664?s=19

Biden has built a insurmountable lead.. 

In all seriousness, that seems a relatively high rejection rate.. very early on.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

An unrepresentative sample size, to be sure, but this is one of the big risks for Democrats in being on the wrong side of a partisan split in use of mail-in ballots.

Anyway, I'm glad the state could be called so early. North Carolina, you have shocked the nation by writing in Pete.

[G_Master]

AS A REMINDER: if you live in North Carolina, and you got your ballot, you can hand-deliver it to your County Board of Elections during office hours, or you can turn it in to an Early Voting site next month, which are open on Saturdays (note: you cannot drop it off at a polling place on Election Day). This will be the best way to 100% assure that your ballot will arrive on time.

If you have a family member/ward who is immunocompromised or at risk for COVID-19, you can deliver their ballot on your behalf, though you may have to show ID or sign a registry as they will keep track of who drops off another person's ballot. Keep in mind that another person's ballot can ONLY be returned by a close family member or legal guardian of the voter.

https://www.ncsbe.gov/voting/vote-mail/faqs-voting-mail-north-carolina-2020#may-another-person-return-my-absentee-ballot-for-me

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1303339620827123716

[Granite City]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1303348150334300162?s=20

This seems... concerning.

[Tender Branson]

If this is true, then mail delays shouldn't really be a problem ... assuming they don't screw over just the mail ballots and deliver everything else:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note, that most of the spoiled ballots are gonna come from the Senior population, Trump own supporters, I think people under 70, know how to vote, anyways; consequently, thats why I think Biden is gonna win Early Voting and VBM, overwhelmingly.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1303339620827123716

Maybe a postal worker accidentally ripped a batch, maybe it rained on them and they are kinda useless as a result. Maybe the NCBE registers them as "spoiled" if they arrive without a signature on them ? Old people with no prior experience or even young people often forget to sign and the ballot is ruled invalid.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/1303360034135576576

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1303348150334300162?s=20

This seems... concerning.

Could just be weird reporting, if Craven and New Hanover Counties are miscoded, for example, or only reported the spoiled ballots.

Those aren't the counties where you'd want to suppress the vote if you were a Republican in North Carolina in any event. Absentee ballots in Craven County will probably break for Trump overall.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1303339016989937664?s=19

Biden has built a insurmountable lead.. 

In all seriousness, that seems a relatively high rejection rate.. very early on.

If this trend holds, then Trump is winning in a landslide

Small sample size but this is concerning

[cg41386]

The explanation was just posted a couple posts above. Stop worrying.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I can tell it's election season cause we're overanalyzing & prognosticating the race based on 100 votes out of 4.7 million votes. And in just under 3 hours too.


I'll be curious to see how the other 99.998% of the vote turns out

[Ferguson97]

I can tell it's election season cause we're overanalyzing 100 votes as if it's 5 million votes. And in just under 3 hours too.

I'll be curious to see how the other 99.998% of the vote turns out

I don't think the rejection rate will be as high as 30%, but it's certainly going to much higher than it usually is.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1303339016989937664?s=19

Biden has built a insurmountable lead..  

In all seriousness, that seems a relatively high rejection rate.. very early on.

If this trend holds, then Trump is winning in a landslide

Small sample size but this is concerning

400 EV Trump landslide + New York & New Jersey confirmed

Who knows what the next 100 votes could tell us

[kph14]

The explanation was just posted a couple posts above. Stop worrying.

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/1303389733050109953