2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 166619 times)
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #2975 on: October 23, 2020, 04:50:37 PM »

Maybe the big surge in early voting means fewer people who vote on Election Day? Maybe it is the weekend effect? Maybe this doesn’t take into account  “Biden Republicans”?

This seems like the sensible conclusion.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #2976 on: October 23, 2020, 05:01:05 PM »

Forgot to mention...After yesterday, the following Texas counties have now passed their 2016 early vote totals:


Collin             311,851   (301,939)
Denton          264,998   (239,954)
Williamson     169,457   (134,072)
Nueces            75,433     (74,844)
Cameron          64,377     (64,239)


Will break it today or tomorrow
Harris             951,066   (977,279)
Dallas             525,057   (549,643)
Tarrant           443,796   (515,230)
Bexar             430,936   (471,908)
Travis             370,070   (377,685)
Fort Bend       205,490   (213,567)
El Paso           147,115   (150,446)
Montgomery   146,144   (156,818)
Galveston         95,643   (101,488)
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2977 on: October 23, 2020, 05:10:12 PM »

The only number that really matters right now.

Dem turnout in Florida so far: 42% of registered voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2978 on: October 23, 2020, 05:27:55 PM »


Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2979 on: October 23, 2020, 05:32:26 PM »

Maybe the big surge in early voting means fewer people who vote on Election Day? Maybe it is the weekend effect? Maybe this doesn’t take into account  “Biden Republicans”?

This seems like the sensible conclusion.

Yes, this too. It's very possible that a lot of usual election day GOPers are now voting early in person.
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philly09
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« Reply #2980 on: October 23, 2020, 05:34:16 PM »


Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.

Hillary had a 250k lead going into Election Day.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #2981 on: October 23, 2020, 05:38:00 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 05:44:34 PM by GP270watch »


Hillary had a 250k lead going in to E-Day.

Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.

  The 96k lead that Democrats had by Party ID (combo of mail-in, early voting) was actually a real vote lead of around 250,000 in 2016. We have no idea how much Joe Biden is up by.

 Something to watch: There is a disturbance forming south of Cuba that is expected to develop into a Tropical Storm and that could impact the Western side of Florida.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2982 on: October 23, 2020, 05:41:18 PM »


Hillary had a 250k lead going in to E-Day.

Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.

  The 96k lead that Democrats had by Party ID (combo of mail-in, early voting) was actually a real vote lead of around 250,000 in 2016. We have no idea how much Joe Biden is up by.

And we have no idea who is voting on Election Day. GOP could be cannibalizing their Election Day vote.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #2983 on: October 23, 2020, 05:42:01 PM »


Hillary had a 250k lead going in to E-Day.

Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.

  The 96k lead that Democrats had by Party ID (combo of mail-in, early voting) was actually a real vote lead of around 250,000 in 2016. We have no idea how much Joe Biden is up by.

Yeah, whatever the party ID lead is between D and R, Biden's lead is probably going to be larger than it.  

At this point I think the biggest predictor here is what percent of Democrats vote.  Like everyone's been saying if Dems can keep parity with Republicans then they have the advantage.  They have a nice buffer now.  I'd like to see the percent turnout go up 3 or 4% every day for Dems.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2984 on: October 23, 2020, 05:45:51 PM »

The Clark firewall is now D+82,000

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GP270watch
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« Reply #2985 on: October 23, 2020, 05:46:13 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 05:50:24 PM by GP270watch »


Hillary had a 250k lead going in to E-Day.

Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.

  The 96k lead that Democrats had by Party ID (combo of mail-in, early voting) was actually a real vote lead of around 250,000 in 2016. We have no idea how much Joe Biden is up by.

And we have no idea who is voting on Election Day. GOP could be cannibalizing their Election Day vote.

We have some idea who will vote, not how they'll vote. There are voter files cross checked against who has voted, GOP has more reliable voters left and Democrats have had a lot of new/infrequent voters, so good news for both sides.
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philly09
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« Reply #2986 on: October 23, 2020, 05:55:01 PM »

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philly09
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« Reply #2987 on: October 23, 2020, 05:56:56 PM »

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Gracile
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« Reply #2988 on: October 23, 2020, 05:58:38 PM »

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2989 on: October 23, 2020, 06:01:47 PM »

The Clark firewall is now D+82,000



Big deal. Those patterns in Nevada should translate elsewhere in the electorate.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #2990 on: October 23, 2020, 06:29:31 PM »



So at most it's probably 3 points off meaning he's up about 5.  However, this has really been one of the most stable elections ever so if anything it's probably off by less (unless there's a systematic polling error based on some weird hidden reason). 
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The Mikado
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« Reply #2991 on: October 23, 2020, 06:30:20 PM »

These guys are being misleading. Show the daily mail amounts as well

I checked The Daily Mail and...



Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but Trump won. It's hard for me too.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #2992 on: October 23, 2020, 06:41:13 PM »



So at most it's probably 3 points off meaning he's up about 5
.  However, this has really been one of the most stable elections ever so if anything it's probably off by less (unless there's a systematic polling error based on some weird hidden reason).  

That 3 points could also go in the other direction, ala 2012.

And it's also with the assumption that RCP aren't cherrypicking what polls they throw in the average this year
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #2993 on: October 23, 2020, 06:44:26 PM »

Sorry if this question seems dense, but can somebody spell out for me what is going on in Florida, preferably in a simultaneously non-doomer and non-optimist way? Do Democrats really need a 650k party advantage by election day? Are Republicans actually surging and beating expectations? Does this take into account how NPA are likely to vote? (Who do those voters even favor?) And does any of this give us any insight into who's favored? I'm not looking for any particular answer, I'm just having a hard time grasping this.

Thanks in advance.
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Ljube
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« Reply #2994 on: October 23, 2020, 06:47:02 PM »

Sorry if this question seems dense, but can somebody spell out for me what is going on in Florida, preferably in a simultaneously non-doomer and non-optimist way? Do Democrats really need a 650k party advantage by election day? Are Republicans actually surging and beating expectations? Does this take into account how NPA are likely to vote? (Who do those voters even favor?) And does any of this give us any insight into who's favored? I'm not looking for any particular answer, I'm just having a hard time grasping this.

Thanks in advance.

Nobody knows that. This election is unlike any other.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2995 on: October 23, 2020, 06:47:34 PM »

Sorry if this question seems dense, but can somebody spell out for me what is going on in Florida, preferably in a simultaneously non-doomer and non-optimist way? Do Democrats really need a 650k party advantage by election day? Are Republicans actually surging and beating expectations? Does this take into account how NPA are likely to vote? (Who do those voters even favor?) And does any of this give us any insight into who's favored? I'm not looking for any particular answer, I'm just having a hard time grasping this.

Thanks in advance.

I can’t really speak impartially being an optimist, but from what I know, the data only indicates who is voting and how they’ll vote. It also doesn’t take into account independent voters, nor does it indicate what the Election Day vote looks like.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #2996 on: October 23, 2020, 06:52:54 PM »

Sorry if this question seems dense, but can somebody spell out for me what is going on in Florida, preferably in a simultaneously non-doomer and non-optimist way? Do Democrats really need a 650k party advantage by election day? Are Republicans actually surging and beating expectations? Does this take into account how NPA are likely to vote? (Who do those voters even favor?) And does any of this give us any insight into who's favored? I'm not looking for any particular answer, I'm just having a hard time grasping this.

Thanks in advance.
Your best of following polls but making predictions only on early voting can be misleading
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #2997 on: October 23, 2020, 06:54:13 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 06:57:42 PM by Unbeatable Titan Donna Shalala »

Sorry if this question seems dense, but can somebody spell out for me what is going on in Florida, preferably in a simultaneously non-doomer and non-optimist way? Do Democrats really need a 650k party advantage by election day? Are Republicans actually surging and beating expectations? Does this take into account how NPA are likely to vote? (Who do those voters even favor?) And does any of this give us any insight into who's favored? I'm not looking for any particular answer, I'm just having a hard time grasping this.

Thanks in advance.

Dems have a big mail lead and people are bedwetting because it's slowly trickling down as Republicans vote early in-person. The 650k number was thrown out by someone on this board but there's no real reason to believe that's the true firewall number (I believe it was based on the assumptions that FL voting patterns would mirror that of, say, Pennsylvania, but that's not the case as Floridians have been voting early for a long time so it's more culturally ingrained).

Dems have a slight registration advantage and NPA's skew Democratic, so all Dems need to do is match Republican turnout and we should be fine.

Unfortunately, Having a lead and seeing it slowly erode is torturous for a lot of people on here, apparently.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #2998 on: October 23, 2020, 06:56:40 PM »

Sorry if this question seems dense, but can somebody spell out for me what is going on in Florida, preferably in a simultaneously non-doomer and non-optimist way? Do Democrats really need a 650k party advantage by election day? Are Republicans actually surging and beating expectations? Does this take into account how NPA are likely to vote? (Who do those voters even favor?) And does any of this give us any insight into who's favored? I'm not looking for any particular answer, I'm just having a hard time grasping this.

Thanks in advance.

The 600,000 number was something someone pulled out of thin air or created by doubling 300,000 and then there was a desire to will it into existence.  It means nothing.  The new Florida guy with the pretty graphs is on the right path--how many of your voters can you get out? But the fact is until everybody who's going to vote votes you really won't know.  
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2999 on: October 27, 2020, 06:54:42 AM »

New thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.0
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