2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Gass3268]

What's interesting is there seems to be more of an urban/suburban vs rural breakdown as to the counties with the highest %, rather than Democrat vs Republican.

Wasn't this also the case in the Supreme Court race this spring?

Correct. Also if we can infer anything from the Supreme Court elections, the Milwaukee Suburbs will return their ballots fast at first, but the Democratic areas will catch up by election day and the rural north will primarily vote on Election Day.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If anyone has any more useful links, let me know and I'll post them at the top!

[BlueSwan]

Here are two maps I've made of the mail vote requests in North Carolina through yesterday:

Partisan breakdown of requests by county:


Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

How is the bottom map supposed to be read?

[Holmes]

Here are two maps I've made of the mail vote requests in North Carolina through yesterday:

Partisan breakdown of requests by county:


Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

How is the bottom map supposed to be read?

The darker the shade, the closer that county is to reaching the amount of votes it cast in 2016 in ballot requests.

[BlueSwan]

Here are two maps I've made of the mail vote requests in North Carolina through yesterday:

Partisan breakdown of requests by county:


Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

How is the bottom map supposed to be read?

The darker the shade, the closer that county is to reaching the amount of votes it cast in 2016 in ballot requests.

I get that, but what are the percentages we are working with here?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Another question: how common are Demosaurs in NC?

[Tender Branson]

Here are two maps I've made of the mail vote requests in North Carolina through yesterday:

Partisan breakdown of requests by county:


Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

How is the bottom map supposed to be read?

The darker the shade, the closer that county is to reaching the amount of votes it cast in 2016 in ballot requests.

I get that, but what are the percentages we are working with here?

If 5 Mio. votes were cast in NC in 2016 and there are now 0.6 Mio. requests, it’s ca. 10% in each county.

Maybe more like 15-20% in the urban counties and below 10% in the rural ones.

[Adam Griffin]

Another question: how common are Demosaurs in NC?

Quite. In terms of registered Democrats who are likely or guaranteed to vote R in presidentials, somewhere in the 5-7% range of all voters depending on the election.

[Crumpets]

Here are two maps I've made of the mail vote requests in North Carolina through yesterday:

Partisan breakdown of requests by county:


Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

How is the bottom map supposed to be read?

The darker the shade, the closer that county is to reaching the amount of votes it cast in 2016 in ballot requests.

I get that, but what are the percentages we are working with here?

If 5 Mio. votes were cast in NC in 2016 and there are now 0.6 Mio. requests, it’s ca. 10% in each county.

Maybe more like 15-20% in the urban counties and below 10% in the rural ones.

Yeah, the darkest shades so far are 20-29% in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area and west of Wilmington. The rest is mixed between 10-19% and 0-10%, which are kind of hard to distinguish using Atlas colors.

[brucejoel99]

32 votes are in!

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1301954206291681280

[Crumpets]

32 votes are in!

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1301954206291681280

Already doing better than the Iowa Democratic caucuses!

[Landslide Lyndon]

32 votes are in!

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1301954206291681280

[bilaps]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

[Holmes]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

Nevada and Arizona are also worth paying attention to since their early/mail vote is usually a very large percentage of the total turnout.

[bilaps]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

Nevada and Arizona are also worth paying attention to since their early/mail vote is usually a very large percentage of the total turnout.

I take it that NV is already decided. Not sure for AZ though.

[kph14]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

Nevada and Arizona are also worth paying attention to since their early/mail vote is usually a very large percentage of the total turnout.

Nevada is all vote-by mail this time

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michael McDonald has a site up to track early voting: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html.  Obviously there's scant data so far, but there is some.

[Minnesota Mike]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

Nevada and Arizona are also worth paying attention to since their early/mail vote is usually a very large percentage of the total turnout.

Nevada is all vote-by mail this time

Nevada will mail a ballot to every voter but they will also have in person early voting and election day voting. They are not all vote by mail.

[Landslide Lyndon]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

Nevada and Arizona are also worth paying attention to since their early/mail vote is usually a very large percentage of the total turnout.

Nevada is all vote-by mail this time

Nevada will mail a ballot to every voter but they will also have in person early voting and election day voting. They are not all vote by mail.

Aren't all states required by law to provide some form of election day voting?

[brucejoel99]

Michael McDonald has a site up to track early voting: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html.  Obviously there's scant data so far, but there is some.

Michael McDonald is a god among men (source: he was a professor of mine last year).

[Adam Griffin]

Forbes: When Swing States Will Begin Counting Mail Ballots

Some of their information (such as for GA) was actually incorrect and some (for TX) was incomplete. I've checked as best as possible to verify that each state's status here is in fact accurate.

States can begin counting votes...

22 days before Election Day: Florida

14-15 days before Election Day: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina

12 days before Election Day: Texas (counties with >100k people)

4 days before Election Day: Texas (counties with <100k people)

On Election Day: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Unclear: Ohio

DISCLAIMER: Also, here is a separate map that may or may not be up-to-date or directly referencing the counting of ballots. For example, "processing" in some states under normal circumstances simply means opening the outer envelope to simplify the Election Day counting procedure.

[Ferguson97]

Forbes: When Swing States Will Begin Counting Mail Ballots

Some of their information (such as for GA) was actually incorrect and some (for TX) was incomplete. I've checked as best as possible to verify that each state's status here is in fact accurate.

States can begin counting votes...

22 days before Election Day: Florida

14-15 days before Election Day: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina

12 days before Election Day: Texas (counties with >100k people)

4 days before Election Day: Texas (counties with <100k people)

On Election Day: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Unclear: Ohio

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

[Adam Griffin]

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if any of the non-GA states had these policies as SOP prior to 2020, or if they were implemented precisely because of this year's situation.

In the case of AZ, it has usually taken days to get most/all of the mail ballots counted, so if the procedure hasn't changed since 2018, then there may still be a delay.

With FL, I'm guessing there was at least some semblance of this policy in effect prior, as the state generally gets the vast majority of its mail and non-mail vote alike counted on Election Night.

In GA and as far as I understand, it permits counties to begin 15 days prior but does not require them: with 159 counties, some may (and probably will) choose not to begin counting early, and others (particularly larger counties with notorious difficulties in counting) may still not work through the bulk by Election Night even if they begin 15 days in advance.

But generally, I'd say we'll know a lot about the nature of the evening from TX, GA, NC, FL & AZ much sooner than from WI, PA & MI.

[Gass3268]

So with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina counting early we should have an idea of who won on Election Night?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if any of the non-GA states had these policies as SOP prior to 2020, or if they were implemented precisely because of this year's situation.

In the case of AZ, it has usually taken days to get most/all of the mail ballots counted, so if the procedure hasn't changed since 2018, then there may still be a delay.

With FL, I'm guessing there was at least some semblance of this policy in effect prior, as the state generally gets the vast majority of its mail and non-mail vote alike counted on Election Night.

In GA and as far as I understand, it permits counties to begin 15 days prior but does not require them: with 159 counties, some may (and probably will) choose not to begin counting early, and others (particularly larger counties with notorious difficulties in counting) may still not work through the bulk by Election Night even if they begin 15 days in advance.

But generally, I'd say we'll know a lot about the nature of the evening from TX, GA, NC, FL & AZ much sooner than from WI, PA & MI.

I’m not too worried about Wisconsin. The process is so decentralized (each municipality/town counts their own votes and releases them all at once). Only place I’m worried could take time is Milwaukee as they’ve had some issues as recent as the August primary.

[kph14]

Forbes: When Swing States Will Begin Counting Mail Ballots

Some of their information (such as for GA) was actually incorrect and some (for TX) was incomplete. I've checked as best as possible to verify that each state's status here is in fact accurate.

States can begin counting votes...

22 days before Election Day: Florida

14-15 days before Election Day: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina

12 days before Election Day: Texas (counties with >100k people)

4 days before Election Day: Texas (counties with <100k people)

On Election Day: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Unclear: Ohio

DISCLAIMER: Also, here is a separate map that may or may not be up-to-date or directly referencing the counting of ballots. For example, "processing" in some states under normal circumstances simply means opening the outer envelope to simplify the Election Day counting procedure.

Maine has changed their rules by executive order and will allow processing to start on Oct 27:

https://www.centralmaine.com/2020/08/27/mills-signs-executive-order-to-support-absentee-voting-protect-polling-places-from-covid-19/