2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[n1240]

One interesting thing I've noticed between the early in-person and absentee electorate in NC is that despite mail-in voters being older, more white, and more Dem, the proportion of voters who didn't vote in 2016 is reasonably higher among the mail-in voters compared to the early in-person voters (27% vs 19%). I may try and perform a more discrete analysis to determine the demographics of the new voters in NC.

[wbrocks67]

lol no point exists in speculating on early voting.

Democrats have a lead obviously. But that's because they are gonna vote early and Republicans WILL vote more on the DAY OF (less fear of COVID).

None of this means anything. See 2016 and literally every election before that.

A) there are more people voting early/mail
B) if these margins keep up, Reps are going to have to turn out in record numbers on election day to keep up. and that's not assured.

[Crumpets]

I'm fine with saying there's no value in using early voting to predict the outcome (except in Nevada), but we'd better not hear any "OMG Harris County turnout is so light. No lines at all! Dems in disarray!" on election day after what we're seeing there now.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm in line at my early voting site, 35 minute wait time at my precinct, first time ever I have ever had to wait, 217 people have already voted in my county 20 mins into early voting

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

JUST the first hour of voting

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318158149531160576

[Gass3268]

Some early in person partisan data:

https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1318166694754471936?s=21

[Inmate Trump]

There will be a war against VBM and a real push to not have those ballot counted.  Counting them will mean Trump loses and he’ll do whatever he can to win, even cheat.  They’ll create a court battle over it somehow.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

There will be a war against VBM and a real push to not have those ballot counted.  Counting them will mean Trump loses and he’ll do whatever he can to win, even cheat.  They’ll create a court battle over it somehow.

I feel like that'll be difficult to justify when Trump himself voted by mail.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anecdotal EV observation from Forsyth County, Georgia: this morning I had to drive to downtown Cumming, and the route takes me past one of the EV sites (Parks & Rec operations center).  On both passes, about 9:30 and 10:15, the parking lot was sparsely filled (6-8 cars).  There was no line outside the door and no people visible at all, except for one man walking to his car when I went by the second time. 

On the way home I made a slight detour to also drive by another site, the county elections office.  There were more cars in its parking lot (12-15?) and no line outside the door, although I did see two people walking in the door and a couple others looking at a sample ballot on the outside of the building.

[Badger]

There will be a war against VBM and a real push to not have those ballot counted.  Counting them will mean Trump loses and he’ll do whatever he can to win, even cheat.  They’ll create a court battle over it somehow.

Just a reminder, Trump voters. You and your candidate actively and aggressively support maintain power over a free and fair election. Your patriotism is a joke.

[Non Swing Voter]

No-one is saying early voting is a predictor but it is a good data point.  For example, in Floria we know that Republicans tend to win when turnout is lower and Democrats when turnout is higher.  In 2018, the Republicans only won because their turnout was higher than Democrats.  If Democrats bank a huge number of votes early, it makes it less likely that they will have low turnout. 

Yes a lot of votes will come from people who would otherwise plan to vote on Election Day.  But remember, stuff happens on Election Day and even high propensity voters might get sick, or have an appointment, or whatever.  Better to bank the votes now.  When I was online (for 4 awful hours) to vote, the lady in front of me left the line after 2 hours because she forgot she had an appointment.  I'm sure stuff like that happens on Election Day too.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318174405399367680

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318174405399367680

So... Republicans are being routed in mail-in voting, which is where their strength usually lies. So, folks predicted that they would make up for it when early voting started, which is where the usual strength is for Democrats, which makes sense given the shifting dynamics of a mid-pandemic election.

However, Republicans are also losing the early vote?

[Rep Jessica]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

[Tender Branson]

Brace yourself that early voting numbers will significantly drop off the closer Election Day comes ...

The „record-breaking“ early vote we see right now will look much smaller and realistic then (except maybe in TX).

[Dr. Arch]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.

[GeneralMacArthur]

STOP

POSTING

TARGETSMART

NUMBERS

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.

It's for Florida, I believe.  

[Bootes Void]

Brace yourself that early voting numbers will significantly drop off the closer Election Day comes ...

The „record-breaking“ early vote we see right now will look much smaller and realistic then (except maybe in TX).

Yeah I think we all have that in mind

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318174405399367680

So... Republicans are being routed in mail-in voting, which is where their strength usually lies. So, folks predicted that they would make up for it when early voting started, which is where the usual strength is for Democrats, which makes sense given the shifting dynamics of a mid-pandemic election.

However, Republicans are also losing the early vote?

Seems like it.  The thing would worry me the most if I were a republican is the fact that the elderly vote is largely being locked in now while Trump's poll numbers are in the gutter.  Plus a lot were locked in during Trump's bout with covid.  I am hopeful that the senior vote will trend a bit or perhaps even significantly towards Biden in Florida.  That alone is probably enough.  But Dems also banking in these votes can only help more.

[Rep Jessica]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.

[Dr. Arch]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.

Got it. Missed the "Florida" part after I saw the "UMich Voter" headline at the top.

[Non Swing Voter]

Brace yourself that early voting numbers will significantly drop off the closer Election Day comes ...

The „record-breaking“ early vote we see right now will look much smaller and realistic then (except maybe in TX).

Yeah but a lot of these states, like Texas, are states where turnout is typically in the gutter.  These are huge numbers.  Plus the drop off hasn't been that bad so far.

[wbrocks67]

So Florida Dems are winning both the mail & early vote #s. Reps better hope there is record election day turnout then...

[Non Swing Voter]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.

Extra large coffee this morning?