2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 166609 times)
The Mikado
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« Reply #1875 on: October 18, 2020, 10:03:57 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.
Not a Republican (just a “doomer”), but I will take you up on it.
I even will extend it on my end to an entire year if Biden actually somehow wins Texas, and will extend it to four years if Biden breaks 400 EVs (lol)

Sounds good!

What avatar are you going to want me to take if Trump wins TX by more than 2?
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1876 on: October 18, 2020, 10:07:10 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.
Not a Republican (just a “doomer”), but I will take you up on it.
I even will extend it on my end to an entire year if Biden actually somehow wins Texas, and will extend it to four years if Biden breaks 400 EVs (lol)

Sounds good!

What avatar are you going to want me to take if Trump wins TX by more than 2?
Considering it is his new home state...I guess R-FL would be appropriate.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #1877 on: October 18, 2020, 10:08:09 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.
Not a Republican (just a “doomer”), but I will take you up on it.
I even will extend it on my end to an entire year if Biden actually somehow wins Texas, and will extend it to four years if Biden breaks 400 EVs (lol)

Sounds good!

What avatar are you going to want me to take if Trump wins TX by more than 2?
Considering it is his new home state...I guess R-FL would be appropriate.

Perfect. Everyone can mistake me for Fuzzy Bear.

You're on.
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philly09
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« Reply #1878 on: October 18, 2020, 10:21:25 PM »

Dave Trotter's Florida Election Tracker is becoming pay-only. Anybody going to sing to continue the updates?
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1879 on: October 18, 2020, 10:33:27 PM »

Ralston’s updates look pretty good for Democrats so far — they’re leading 2 to 1 in Washoe right now and almost 3 to 1 in Clark. In 2016 with about 10 percent of the vote in, they had a 2,200 ballot lead in Washoe; this year it’s almost 12,000. Still very early, but I don’t see how this is a sign Trump’s on any kind of path to flip Nevada.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #1880 on: October 18, 2020, 10:38:37 PM »

Dave Trotter's Florida Election Tracker is becoming pay-only. Anybody going to sing to continue the updates?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1881 on: October 18, 2020, 10:46:35 PM »

Ralston’s updates look pretty good for Democrats so far — they’re leading 2 to 1 in Washoe right now and almost 3 to 1 in Clark. In 2016 with about 10 percent of the vote in, they had a 2,200 ballot lead in Washoe; this year it’s almost 12,000. Still very early, but I don’t see how this is a sign Trump’s on any kind of path to flip Nevada.

Ralston noted earlier in his blog that the majority of the current vote comes from mail, which is overwhelmingly Democratic. In-person early voting in Washoe was narrowly GOP, and I think the vote will tighten over the next few days. Though no matter what, I think the Democrats have built up enough of a freiwal in Clark to keep the state for Biden.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1882 on: October 18, 2020, 10:48:45 PM »

Ralston’s updates look pretty good for Democrats so far — they’re leading 2 to 1 in Washoe right now and almost 3 to 1 in Clark. In 2016 with about 10 percent of the vote in, they had a 2,200 ballot lead in Washoe; this year it’s almost 12,000. Still very early, but I don’t see how this is a sign Trump’s on any kind of path to flip Nevada.

Ralston noted earlier in his blog that the majority of the current vote comes from mail, which is overwhelmingly Democratic. In-person early voting in Washoe was narrowly GOP, and I think the vote will tighten over the next few days. Though no matter what, I think the Democrats have built up enough of a freiwal in Clark to keep the state for Biden.

Yes, he does keep stressing that “this election is an apple and the others are oranges,” and I agree that it’ll probably tighten up. But we’ll see how things look next Saturday in Clark, which I think is traditionally the Dems’ strongest day of early voting. (Second Saturday of EV, right?)
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1883 on: October 18, 2020, 10:54:44 PM »

My early voting site is predicting 2,100 voters tomorrow, it was 1,600 in 2016
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Xing
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« Reply #1884 on: October 18, 2020, 10:56:28 PM »

Ralston’s updates look pretty good for Democrats so far — they’re leading 2 to 1 in Washoe right now and almost 3 to 1 in Clark. In 2016 with about 10 percent of the vote in, they had a 2,200 ballot lead in Washoe; this year it’s almost 12,000. Still very early, but I don’t see how this is a sign Trump’s on any kind of path to flip Nevada.

Ralston noted earlier in his blog that the majority of the current vote comes from mail, which is overwhelmingly Democratic. In-person early voting in Washoe was narrowly GOP, and I think the vote will tighten over the next few days. Though no matter what, I think the Democrats have built up enough of a freiwal in Clark to keep the state for Biden.

Yes, he does keep stressing that “this election is an apple and the others are oranges,” and I agree that it’ll probably tighten up. But we’ll see how things look next Saturday in Clark, which I think is traditionally the Dems’ strongest day of early voting. (Second Saturday of EV, right?)

From what I remember, the last two days are typically the strongest for Democrats, but who knows how it will be this year.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1885 on: October 18, 2020, 11:14:59 PM »

Ralston’s updates look pretty good for Democrats so far — they’re leading 2 to 1 in Washoe right now and almost 3 to 1 in Clark. In 2016 with about 10 percent of the vote in, they had a 2,200 ballot lead in Washoe; this year it’s almost 12,000. Still very early, but I don’t see how this is a sign Trump’s on any kind of path to flip Nevada.

F R E I W A L
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philly09
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« Reply #1886 on: October 18, 2020, 11:51:09 PM »

28 million votes.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_10_18.html
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1887 on: October 19, 2020, 12:02:34 AM »

Obviously will be above 50 million by the end of next weekend
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philly09
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« Reply #1888 on: October 19, 2020, 12:27:11 AM »

Obviously will be above 50 million by the end of next weekend

46 Million at the end of the early voting period in early November 2016. We're going to break the record.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1889 on: October 19, 2020, 12:34:21 AM »

Yeah baring any major changes Nevada looks pretty solid for Biden.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1890 on: October 19, 2020, 12:41:08 AM »

are there any updates on that whole issue with NC ballots being rejected?  have people been curing them?  I worry that with Dems requesting more mail ballots they will have a lot more rejections.
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philly09
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« Reply #1891 on: October 19, 2020, 12:44:33 AM »

are there any updates on that whole issue with NC ballots being rejected?  have people been curing them?  I worry that with Dems requesting more mail ballots they will have a lot more rejections.

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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1892 on: October 19, 2020, 12:46:16 AM »

are there any updates on that whole issue with NC ballots being rejected?  have people been curing them?  I worry that with Dems requesting more mail ballots they will have a lot more rejections.



OK I guess that sounds promising that they are aware of the issue.  Plus with so many people voting early that can be checked off the list, Dems have more time to focus on helping them correct the issue.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1893 on: October 19, 2020, 01:10:22 AM »

are there any updates on that whole issue with NC ballots being rejected?  have people been curing them?  I worry that with Dems requesting more mail ballots they will have a lot more rejections.



OK I guess that sounds promising that they are aware of the issue.  Plus with so many people voting early that can be checked off the list, Dems have more time to focus on helping them correct the issue.

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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #1894 on: October 19, 2020, 01:50:51 AM »

lol no point exists in speculating on early voting.

Democrats have a lead obviously. But that's because they are gonna vote early and Republicans WILL vote more on the DAY OF (less fear of COVID).

None of this means anything. See 2016 and literally every election before that.
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swf541
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« Reply #1895 on: October 19, 2020, 01:58:03 AM »

lol no point exists in speculating on early voting.

Democrats have a lead obviously. But that's because they are gonna vote early and Republicans WILL vote more on the DAY OF (less fear of COVID).

None of this means anything. See 2016 and literally every election before that.

There is SOME value in looking into the data, just both sides here like to overhype/overdismiss it
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #1896 on: October 19, 2020, 02:08:30 AM »

lol no point exists in speculating on early voting.

Democrats have a lead obviously. But that's because they are gonna vote early and Republicans WILL vote more on the DAY OF (less fear of COVID).

None of this means anything. See 2016 and literally every election before that.

There is SOME value in looking into the data, just both sides here like to overhype/overdismiss it

I seem to remember 2016 everyone saying Clinton had it IN THE BAG due to early voting. Turned out her supporters just voted early. Same thing happening here.

Does not change the fact that Biden is much farther ahead then Clinton was. But still regardless this means nothing for either a Trump or Biden win.

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soundchaser
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« Reply #1897 on: October 19, 2020, 02:14:30 AM »

Except, as has been pointed out many times before, early voting is incredibly predictive in Nevada. You can essentially call the state (as Ralston has done in previous elections) before Election Day.
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swf541
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« Reply #1898 on: October 19, 2020, 03:07:59 AM »

lol no point exists in speculating on early voting.

Democrats have a lead obviously. But that's because they are gonna vote early and Republicans WILL vote more on the DAY OF (less fear of COVID).

None of this means anything. See 2016 and literally every election before that.

There is SOME value in looking into the data, just both sides here like to overhype/overdismiss it

I seem to remember 2016 everyone saying Clinton had it IN THE BAG due to early voting. Turned out her supporters just voted early. Same thing happening here.

Does not change the fact that Biden is much farther ahead then Clinton was. But still regardless this means nothing for either a Trump or Biden win.



Agreed on 2016,

And it does matter in some states
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n1240
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« Reply #1899 on: October 19, 2020, 04:09:01 AM »

NC 10/17, day 4 early in-person vote:

Dem 41868 (46.8%)
Rep 23277 (26.0%)
Una 24293 (27.2%)
Total 89438

compared to day 4 in 2016

Dem 11323 (56.9%)
Rep 3620 (18.2%)
Una 4972 (25.0%)
Total 19915

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 405533 (44.3%)
Rep 267566 (29.2%)
Una 241992 (26.4%)

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 708355 (46.6%)
Rep 379640 (25.0%)
Una 433498 (28.5%)

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