2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 166615 times)
TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1850 on: October 18, 2020, 07:50:52 PM »

Hidalgo County also had over 4k. This places them over the 50% mark of the 2016 total
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Sbane
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« Reply #1851 on: October 18, 2020, 07:51:25 PM »

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

Lots of growth in that county as well.
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philly09
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« Reply #1852 on: October 18, 2020, 07:52:32 PM »

They're racking them up in Dallas.

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1853 on: October 18, 2020, 07:54:40 PM »

Relevant to the discussion about who's doing better in the early voting, here's someone with access to better data than most of us have:

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1854 on: October 18, 2020, 07:59:25 PM »

Relevant to the discussion about who's doing better in the early voting, here's someone with access to better data than most of us have:



What is that original tweet even talking about? Everything across the board looks better for Democrats than 2016 at least.
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ExSky
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« Reply #1855 on: October 18, 2020, 08:01:18 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 08:04:26 PM by ExSky »

Republicans convincing themselves into believing theyre doing incredibly well because of TargetSmart is absolute comedy gold. Lordy I can’t wait for this election to come 😂

I suspect the narrative will shift to Democrat early voter fraud very quickly.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1856 on: October 18, 2020, 08:01:50 PM »

No, I am not ignoring TargetSmart...

TEXAS EARLY VOTE

Total Ballots Cast: 3,199,795

REPUBLICANS 1,620,479 (50.6 %)

DEMOCRATS 1,311,356 (41.0 %)

INDEPENDENTS 267,960 (8.4 %)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

Biden winning Texas is a "Pipe Dream" for him!

Here is the solution to resolve the "pipe dream scenario".

Out of your element Donny....

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1857 on: October 18, 2020, 08:21:59 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 08:35:38 PM by Questionable Intent »

Georgia: For the final update, 44,148 votes were cast on Sunday.

This includes 31,767 in-person votes and 12,381 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 819,406 in-person & 663,026 by mail, for a grand total of 1,482,432 (35.59% of 2016 total vote).



EDIT: worth noting that many counties not offering voting this weekend haven't checked their dropboxes since Friday afternoon, meaning anything dropped off between Friday evening and Monday morning will lead to a big dump of mail ballots in Monday's report. Just in the counties holding Saturday and/or Sunday in-person voting, we've seen 40,961 mail ballots received via USPS on Sat or dropped off in boxes on Sat/Sun, and 96,371 in-person votes: a total of 137,332 votes across the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if there were 50k mail ballots sitting in dropboxes across the state right now in the counties that didn't offer in-person weekend voting; 100k mail ballots being processed on Monday isn't out of the question.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #1858 on: October 18, 2020, 08:24:27 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1859 on: October 18, 2020, 08:29:00 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

Where is OSR? He’s overconfident about Texas staying red
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1860 on: October 18, 2020, 08:35:54 PM »

Demographics of LA early vote after day 2

2020--62-34-4 (W-B-O)   2016--70-27-4

2020--52-32-15 (D-R-O)  2016--45-39-17

Not quite at half of the 2016 early vote.

Are there that many Dixiecrats in LA in 2020?
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Sbane
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« Reply #1861 on: October 18, 2020, 08:48:21 PM »

Bear in mind that Beto won native-born Texans by 3, while Ted carried transplants by 15. Some of the people moving into Texas from out of state are young liberals, but a lot of them are looking for a place with lower taxes. It could be a wash, and I'm not going to try to extrapolate too much.

You don't need to be a liberal to want to throw Trump's ass out of the white house.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1862 on: October 18, 2020, 08:51:20 PM »

Demographics of LA early vote after day 2

2020--62-34-4 (W-B-O)   2016--70-27-4

2020--52-32-15 (D-R-O)  2016--45-39-17

Not quite at half of the 2016 early vote.

Are there that many Dixiecrats in LA in 2020?

Not really, realignment is pretty much complete.  I don't expect those numbers to hold, but Biden would win with those demographics.
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Badger
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« Reply #1863 on: October 18, 2020, 08:51:23 PM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

Wow, fascism, really?

Neo-fascism. It's pretty hard to deny that trumpism flirts with fascism in a major way.
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Sbane
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« Reply #1864 on: October 18, 2020, 08:55:21 PM »

No, I am not ignoring TargetSmart...

TEXAS EARLY VOTE

Total Ballots Cast: 3,199,795

REPUBLICANS 1,620,479 (50.6 %)

DEMOCRATS 1,311,356 (41.0 %)

INDEPENDENTS 267,960 (8.4 %)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

Biden winning Texas is a "Pipe Dream" for him!

Important to consider these are "modeled" Republicans. So 100k+ voters in the suburbs? I wonder why they are turning out in such high numbers this year. Hmm....
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1865 on: October 18, 2020, 08:56:39 PM »

Bear in mind that Beto won native-born Texans by 3, while Ted carried transplants by 15. Some of the people moving into Texas from out of state are young liberals, but a lot of them are looking for a place with lower taxes. It could be a wash, and I'm not going to try to extrapolate too much.

You don't need to be a liberal to want to throw Trump's ass out of the white house.

I know. Notice who the first endorsement in my sig is.
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #1866 on: October 18, 2020, 08:56:51 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 09:00:25 PM by Rep Jessica »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

Wow, fascism, really?

Neo-fascism. It's pretty hard to deny that trumpism flirts with fascism in a major way.

Lol,

well, leaders within the BLM admitted that they're for Marxism and lets be honest, communism killed 5 times as many people. No room to talk.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #1867 on: October 18, 2020, 09:05:56 PM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

Wow, fascism, really?

Neo-fascism. It's pretty hard to deny that trumpism flirts with fascism in a major way.

Lol,

well, leaders within the BLM admitted that they're for Marxism and lets be honest, communism killed 5 times as many people. No room to talk.

"Leaders within the BLM" aren't the incumbent President of the United States.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #1868 on: October 18, 2020, 09:06:45 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

You that confident of Biden's chances?  I feel like if the race is really within 2 points in Texas, Biden (or Bloomberg if you're out there!?!?) should invest $50 million in the state.  He has the resources.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #1869 on: October 18, 2020, 09:08:52 PM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

Wow, fascism, really?

Neo-fascism. It's pretty hard to deny that trumpism flirts with fascism in a major way.

Lol,

well, leaders within the BLM admitted that they're for Marxism and lets be honest, communism killed 5 times as many people. No room to talk.

I'm literally one of the most free market, lower taxes, free trade, fiscally conservative posters on here and I am not at all worried about Marxism or socialism or any of that occurring in a Biden administration. 

Trump seems to want to run against Bernie and BLM and Hunter's emails rather than Biden himself, which is telling.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1870 on: October 18, 2020, 09:10:30 PM »

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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1871 on: October 18, 2020, 09:11:51 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

You that confident of Biden's chances?  I feel like if the race is really within 2 points in Texas, Biden (or Bloomberg if you're out there!?!?) should invest $50 million in the state.  He has the resources.

At the same time, it's not like no one is campaigning there. Texas Democrats have done a lot of work getting their folks to turn out & flip the State House. Wouldn't be surprised to see Biden get reverse coattails there
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Holmes
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« Reply #1872 on: October 18, 2020, 09:19:05 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

You that confident of Biden's chances?  I feel like if the race is really within 2 points in Texas, Biden (or Bloomberg if you're out there!?!?) should invest $50 million in the state.  He has the resources.

To be fair, getting Bloomberg to invest in Florida was like pulling teeth. I’m not surprised he’s not doing much else.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1873 on: October 18, 2020, 09:42:23 PM »

Demographics of LA early vote after day 2

2020--62-34-4 (W-B-O)   2016--70-27-4

2020--52-32-15 (D-R-O)  2016--45-39-17

Not quite at half of the 2016 early vote.

Are there that many Dixiecrats in LA in 2020?

In terms of registration and/or primary participation? Sure:

October 2020 Registration: 1,248,613 D (55.42%), 1,004,537 R (44.58%)
2020 Presidential Primary: 267,286 D (56.69%), 204,175 R (43.31%)
2016 Presidential Primary: 311,776 D (50.86%), 301,241 R (49.14%)
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1874 on: October 18, 2020, 09:50:34 PM »

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.
Not a Republican (just a “doomer”), but I will take you up on it.
I even will extend it on my end to an entire year if Biden actually somehow wins Texas, and will extend it to four years if Biden breaks 400 EVs (lol)
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