2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[DINGO Joe]

are there any counties we should be watching most closely for turnout numbers in Texas that would be a good sign for Biden? 

Denton TX

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

2010 census: 662,614
2015 estimate: 778,846
2019 estimate: 887,207

Denton County is literally not the same place it was 8 or even 4 years ago.

This seems correct. It's really looking like the Texas version of Loudon County.

[DINGO Joe]

Look, in every state that has party registration, it's obvious that Ds are voting early in far greater numbers, especially in suburbia, but since TX doesn't have party registration, people get to pretend whatever they want.

[The Mikado]

It's like somehow people refuse to accept that a county's population increasing 15% in just the four years between the 2016 and 2020 elections might have an effect on its political patterns and demography.

Denton's electorate itself is different from what it was in 2016 before you even consider patterns in voters who were already there. if you aren't factoring this in, your opinion is worthless on this subject.

[Bootes Void]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

High Republican turnout...

It's  a Texas suburb an county that is about R+10 but that doesn't mean everyone voting early is republican. There are plenty of Dems voting in the suburbs and are probably a majority right now

[Devout Centrist]

It's like somehow people refuse to accept that a county's population increasing 15% in just the four years between the 2016 and 2020 elections might have an effect on its political patterns and demography.

Denton's electorate itself is different from what it was in 2016 before you even consider patterns in voters who were already there. if you aren't factoring this in, your opinion is worthless on this subject.

Yes, and it's significantly different from 2018 as well.

And given how fast Denton has been moving towards the Democratic Party...

[Roll Roons]

Bear in mind that Beto won native-born Texans by 3, while Ted carried transplants by 15. Some of the people moving into Texas from out of state are young liberals, but a lot of them are looking for a place with lower taxes. It could be a wash, and I'm not going to try to extrapolate too much.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bear in mind that Beto won native-born Texans by 3, while Ted carried transplants by 15. Some of the people moving into Texas from out of state liberals, but a lot of them are looking for a place with lower taxes. It could be a wash, I'm not going to try and predict either way what the high early turnout could mean.

That exit poll stat is almost definitely junk when you compare the trends map with transplants maps

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ffs you troglodytes, Denton county is no longer a crimson republican county. Trump's prolly gonna win it this time like 53-45 and net 30k ish out of it, and there is a good chance itll be even less than that, and not a very good chance it could be just a little higher than that.  

[ExSky]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

2010 census: 662,614
2015 estimate: 778,846
2019 estimate: 887,207

Denton County is literally not the same place it was 8 or even 4 years ago.

This seems correct. It's really looking like the Texas version of Loudon County.

This is a really good comparison. The deniers are refusing to acknowledge the basic fact that the republican vote is only going to marginally increase at best in these suburbs. Theyve been GOP strongholds forever. It’s the Democrat voters who used to think they didn’t have a shot, finally waking up and realizing that can blow away the republicans if they actually turnout (of course combined with the massive population growth which leans liberal)

Loudon County in 08 didn’t lose GOP voters. In fact it gained from 60k to 63k. The Dems meanwhile went from 47k to 73k in once cycle.

GOP is close to a ceiling in Texas. Trump only added about 150k from Bush in 04. Dems have increased by over a million since then and the closing in the gap isn’t just going to suddenly slow down because the numbers about even now. It’s going to likely accelerate to the left even more driven by the population growth, urbanization, and loss of the suburbs (which was sped up by Trump).

[Sbane]

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

The problem is that your side is incapable of critical thinking or reading comprehension these days. Make an actual case as opposed to acting like a child.

The link that Jessica posted did not make the case she was attempting to make. To figure that out she would have had to read 2-3 paragraphs and that is just too much to ask of a Republican these days.

[LimoLiberal]

Ignore Target Smart. Ignore TargetSmart. Ignore TargetSmart.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Denton will be Trump +5

[DINGO Joe]

Here's a very specific example to make my point Dallas Co, IA a fast growing suburban county outside of Des Moines that Trump won by 9.5 points after Romney won by 11.5.

Early voting in 2016     7672R  6224D
Early in 2020 thus far   4269R  7368D

In early ballots requested the Ds lead 12400 to 8500.  What's notable about that is that in 2016 only 11100 Ds voted altogether--early and on election day.  Now, the Ds have closed the registration gap by about 4200 voters since 2016, so it's a prime target for the Ds to flip this year.

But if Dallas didn't have party reg, then we'd have to listen to morons say that the big early turnout is Republitards cause Trump won it in 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

Here's a very specific example to make my point Dallas Co, IA a fast growing suburban county outside of Des Moines that Trump won by 9.5 points after Romney won by 11.5.

Early voting in 2016     7672R  6224D
Early in 2018 thus far   4269R  7368D

In early ballots requested the Ds lead 12400 to 8500.  What's notable about that is that in 2016 only 11100 Ds voted altogether--early and on election day.  Now, the Ds have closed the registration gap by about 4200 voters since 2016, so it's a prime target for the Ds to flip this year.

But if Dallas didn't have party reg, then we'd have to listen to morons say that the big early turnout is Republitards cause Trump won it in 2016.

do you mean 2020?

[DINGO Joe]

Here's a very specific example to make my point Dallas Co, IA a fast growing suburban county outside of Des Moines that Trump won by 9.5 points after Romney won by 11.5.

Early voting in 2016     7672R  6224D
Early in 2018 thus far   4269R  7368D

In early ballots requested the Ds lead 12400 to 8500.  What's notable about that is that in 2016 only 11100 Ds voted altogether--early and on election day.  Now, the Ds have closed the registration gap by about 4200 voters since 2016, so it's a prime target for the Ds to flip this year.

But if Dallas didn't have party reg, then we'd have to listen to morons say that the big early turnout is Republitards cause Trump won it in 2016.

do you mean 2020?

Fixed, thanks

[Brittain33]

Bear in mind that Beto won native-born Texans by 3, while Ted carried transplants by 15. Some of the people moving into Texas from out of state are young liberals, but a lot of them are looking for a place with lower taxes. It could be a wash, and I'm not going to try to extrapolate too much.

That stat is more of a proxy for age than for who's moving to Texas. Young people are much more likely to be born in Texas than Boomers, and we know how that worked in 2018.

[NOVA Green]

So I spotted an issue with Denton County in my 2016 EV vs ED numbers which was caused by ED votes creating faulty subtotals for multiple candidates.

It has now been updated in my OP of EV vs ED breakdown charts posted upthread.

Meanwhile if we look at EV vs ED Patterns in Denton County, TX we see something like the following (Including Undervotes and Overvotes) and consolidated EVs and Absentees:

2016: TOTAL EV- 243,054   (80.3%)
2016: TOTAL ED-  59,781    (19.7%)

2016: TOTAL DEM EV-   87,967  (36.7%)
2016: TOTAL PUB EV-  139,906  (58.3%)
2016: TOTAL MISC EV-  12,195  ( 5.0%)

2016: TOTAL DEM ED-   22,923  (39.1%)
2016: TOTAL PUB ED-    30,697  (52.3%)
2016: TOTAL MISC ED-    5,047  ( 8.6%)

2018: TOTAL EV- 231,665   (78.3%)
2018: TOTAL ED-  64,147    (21.7%)

2016: TOTAL DEM EV-   103,773 (44.8%)
2016: TOTAL PUB EV-    126,408  (54.6%)
2016: TOTAL MISC EV-      1,474  (0.6%)

2018: TOTAL DEM ED-   30,876  (48.1%)
2018: TOTAL PUB ED-    32,336  (50.4%)
2018: TOTAL MISC ED-       935  ( 1.5%)

Now--- not totally sure how this will relate to the 2020 GE in Denton County TX, but traditionally it appears to be a place where Republicans have tended to perform better on Early Voting and Democrats have tended to perform better on Election date votes...

In fact DEM ED votes increased dramatically between '16 and '18, somewhere in order of a 130%+ of their total numbers between both GEs.

[walleye26]

According to the Harris County Clerk, 32,300 people have voted today (as of 6PM). They are also planning to have a 24-hour long voting event so that second and third shift workers can come in and vote as well. This is a tremendous undertaking.

[Gass3268]

According to the Harris County Clerk, 32,300 people have voted today (as of 6PM). They are also planning to have a 24-hour long voting event so that second and third shift workers can come in and vote as well. This is a tremendous undertaking.

They only started at noon today as well.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Over 21k in Bexar County today and over 2k in Cameron County, both per their county clerk websites. Both records for Sundays.

[JerryArkansas]

Over 21k in Bexar County today and over 2k in Cameron County, both per their county clerk websites. Both records for Sundays.

Sounds like Bexar had a voting drive today.

[2016]

No, I am not ignoring TargetSmart...

TEXAS EARLY VOTE

Total Ballots Cast: 3,199,795

REPUBLICANS 1,620,479 (50.6 %)

DEMOCRATS 1,311,356 (41.0 %)

INDEPENDENTS 267,960 (8.4 %)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

Biden winning Texas is a "Pipe Dream" for him!

[Storr]

No, I am not ignoring TargetSmart...

TEXAS EARLY VOTE

Total Ballots Cast: 3,199,795

REPUBLICANS 1,620,479 (50.6 %)

DEMOCRATS 1,311,356 (41.0 %)

INDEPENDENTS 267,960 (8.4 %)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

Biden winning Texas is a "Pipe Dream" for him!

Even while overlooking the issues that model being from Target Smart brings up, this is already old data. Texas is already at 3,881,004 votes cast, and that was last updated yesterday.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/TX.html

[Flabuckeye]

Talk about Texas is sexy, however, Dems should really keep their eyes on the prize for a more close in opportunity.

FLORIDA TURNOUT TRACKER
-In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by 112,911

Trump 4,617,886
Clinton 4,504,975

What doesn't get a lot of press is the difference-  Turnout by party
Republicans turned out 81.2% of the 4.577M Rs or 3,716,524 Rs  (860K didn't vote)
Democrats turned out only 74.5% of 4.908M Ds or 3,651,552 Ds (1.256 didn't vote)

Difference in turnout was 75K votes and she lost by 112K

Now looking at the Early Vote 2016
Republicans turnout after EV was 55.7% which then rose on Election Day to 81.2%
Democrats turnout after EV was 53.9% which then rose to only 74.5% on ED

On the eve of In person EV in Florida, where are we with the Mail only era completed?
Republicans have turned out 14.6% of a Final# of registered Rs (Oct 6) of 5.169M
Democrats have turned out 23.1% of a Final# of registered Ds (Oct 6) of 5.303M

Given the likelihood of the Election Day red wave (like happened in 2016), Ds are going to want to be sitting much higher than the 53.9% turnout after all EV.  Probably in the low 60s.

They are starting in a much better position this year after the mail only section running 23.1% vs the 9.9% they had in 2016.  The coming days will give us a much better view if it will be possible to hit better turnout numbers.  I will provide updates.

P.S. also have this at the county level to know which counties are lagging and need to pick up the pace.