2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate

Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.

According to TargetSmart Clinton was going to win Florida by 10%.......

TargetSmart tends to be off in both directions depending upon the circumstances; they're just wrong.

I'm aware im just giving an example and I remember that one the most

Ok cool. There's some people on here who say because pollster x was off by y % last time, it'll be off by the exact same amount this time, which i think is a poor way of looking at it.

[Tender Branson]

Here's your weekly or daily reminder that all those high early D numbers don't mean anything if the Trump people vote on election day in hordes ...

(Besides, it is not even guaranteed that the early vote is so extremely pro-D as people believe. The Indys voting early might be less pro-Biden for example than what polls say ...)

[swf541]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate

Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.

According to TargetSmart Clinton was going to win Florida by 10%.......

TargetSmart tends to be off in both directions depending upon the circumstances; they're just wrong.

I'm aware im just giving an example and I remember that one the most

Ok cool. There's some people on here who say because pollster x was off by y % last time, it'll be off by the exact same amount this time, which i think is a poor way of looking at it.

I am very aware of this lol
and yea it's a really poor way of dealing with polling biases

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Forgetting the party registration the age numbers so far indicates good news for the GOP in Texas while the gender numbers indicates good news for the Dems .


The age numbers I would say are better news for the GOP than the gender numbers are for the Dems

Delusion

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's your weekly or daily reminder that all those high early D numbers don't mean anything if the Trump people vote on election day in hordes ...

(Besides, it is not even guaranteed that the early vote is so extremely pro-D as people believe. The Indys voting early might be less pro-Biden for example than what polls say ...)

Nonetheless, it's a good sign to see high early voting in a state like TX in counties like Harris, Travis, Dallas, and Tarrant.

[mijan]

WI early vote information updated
858 k people have voted.
Milwaukee overtakes Dane in raw number
Milwaukee  139868
Dane 139520
Dane has 68% mail in ballots  return rate.

[Asta]

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

In TX, the age looks more favorable for Democrats at least compared to 2016.
(2016) in parenthesis

18 = 9.3% (1.8%)
30-39 = 12.3% (0.6%)
40-49 = 14.9% (0.5%)
50-64 = 30.0% (3.6%)
65+ = 33.5% (93.5%)

I mean their modeling is funky. 94% of early voters in 2016 were 65+ year old? That can't be right.

Nonetheless, I still think TX age is far more favorable to Democrats, at least compared to 2016. That said, TargetSmart really needs to fix their modeling.

[wbrocks67]

Here's your weekly or daily reminder that all those high early D numbers don't mean anything if the Trump people vote on election day in hordes ...

(Besides, it is not even guaranteed that the early vote is so extremely pro-D as people believe. The Indys voting early might be less pro-Biden for example than what polls say ...)

this is true, but if a place like FL still has like a 500K+ Dem lead going into election day, that is going to be VERY hard for the GOP to over come, even with a ton of Reps voting on election day. There's only so much they can overcome

[wbrocks67]

Cotto/Gottfried
@CottoGottfried
·
10h
In North Carolina, in-person early voting returns have eclipsed VBM ones by four points. Dems lead GOPers by a 23-point margin, with 1,243,340 ballots received. GOPers are slowly closing the gap, but this is pathetic all the same. GOPers will need an epic Election Day turnout.

"slowly closing the gap" is doing a lot of work here. They are literally down 23%.

[prag_prog]

Regarding Nevada, I looked at the recent NYT/Siena Nevada poll and they did ask about how the voters plan to vote. This is the breakdown I have from that poll -  

The poll has -

Dems:
42% - VBM
42% - Vote in person before Election Day
11% - Vote on Election Day.

Reps:
12% - VBM
45% - Vote in person before Election day
37% - Vote on Election Day

Based on this, the In Person voting numbers before Election Day should be fairly similar for both Ds and Rs. While Dems are expected to have overwhelming lead in VBM, Rs are expected to have overwhelming lead in Election Day voting.

[Gass3268]

If you want to know what's really going on in Texas, take a look at how John Cornyn is talking about Donald Trump right now.

https://twitter.com/startelegram/status/1317789745309749248?s=20

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1317903714942881793?s=20

He's terrified if he's willing to now publicly break with Trump on issues. Not saying Biden/Hegar is winning, but it's obviously close.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"As your Senator, I've keep my real positions a secret from you for the last four years" doesn't seem like a particularly good message.

[TopShelfGoal]

Democratic Governors in NC/PA/WI/MI/NV should reduce the number of election day polling stations for "safety" and to "prevent electoral fraud".

[2016]

Cotto/Gottfried
@CottoGottfried
·
10h
In North Carolina, in-person early voting returns have eclipsed VBM ones by four points. Dems lead GOPers by a 23-point margin, with 1,243,340 ballots received. GOPers are slowly closing the gap, but this is pathetic all the same. GOPers will need an epic Election Day turnout.

"slowly closing the gap" is doing a lot of work here. They are literally down 23%.

Hilarious!

Democrats in North Carolina in 2012 had a combined VBM/Early In-Person lead of 443K Votes YET Republicans ended up winning the State.

These Statistics are provided under "Historical Absentee Statistics" by the NC State Board of Elections and you can all download them!!!!

NC 2012 combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote at the end of Early Voting

D: 1,317,822
R: 874,205
I: 576,273

Democrats had a lead in Registration at the end of Early Voting by 443,617. Mitt Romney ended up winning the State by 92,004 Votes.

2016 at the end of combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote at the end of Early Voting

D: - 22.288 compared to 2012
R: + 122.349 compared to 2012
I: + 273.980 compared to 2012

Democrats had a lead in Registration at the end of Early Voting by 298,980. Donald Trump ended up winning the State by 173,315 Votes.

So, what are u smoking @wbrocks67?

Are I am a bit concerned about NC? Yes, but quite frankly Dems have to bump up their VBM/EV a lot.
Democrats currently have a 309,380 Vote lead in NC. Not great for the GOP BUT if Romney can close a 443K Vote Gap and win and Trump closed a 298K Vote gap and win a lot has to fall in line for D's to win NC.

Even with the 310K Vote Gap right now I still say Trump wins NC by less than 50K Votes.

[RI]

We’re finally starting to get our ballots here in Washington. I’ll be sending my vote in tomorrow.

My wife and I dropped our ballots off today. There were a few other cars at the drop box, even on a Sunday morning.

[Brittain33]

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

In TX, the age looks more favorable for Democrats at least compared to 2016.
(2016) in parenthesis

18 = 9.3% (1.8%)
30-39 = 12.3% (0.6%)
40-49 = 14.9% (0.5%)
50-64 = 30.0% (3.6%)
65+ = 33.5% (93.5%)

I mean their modeling is funky. 94% of early voters in 2016 were 65+ year old? That can't be right.

Nonetheless, I still think TX age is far more favorable to Democrats, at least compared to 2016. That said, TargetSmart really needs to fix their modeling.

Texas requires an excuse for absentee ballot but waives that for over-65s. That's the only possible way I can see those numbers working and if they were for absentee only.

[NOVA Green]

If anyone is interested, I can post the 2016 EV vs ED numbers by County for over 50% of the Counties in TX, and even break those numbers down further by GE-PRES numbers.

Don't want to waste my time on that if there is no interest.

Okay... so I went through and ran the numbers of EV vs ED for the (130) Counties in TX on my precinct database which break down votes by those categories.

So if anyone wants to track EV % numbers in '20 as a % of '16, this might be a useful reference.

I needed to do a little bit of cleanup, since the query was including some County totals into the precinct column label field... so if you spot something that looks off, please ping me in case I missed something when running the data validation.

Also note, this is for the US-PRES Election only, and for some counties may include undervotes and overvotes within the totals, and some may include all of the minor party candidates / WIs and some may only include the top four (DEM, PUB, LBT, & GRN).

I can take requests to pull EV vs ED for counties upon request, but because of different labelling conventions, I elected not to do so at this time as part of this list.

Also, there is likely additional county numbers out there elsewhere, but because it was not part of the dataset that I was running the numbers off of was beyond scope at this time.

I'll try to do something similar with the 2018 TX-SEN numbers, when I get a moment.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 5 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 17)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   313,405     15.7%
2016:   452,124     20.2%
2018:   380,262     16.3%
2020:   585,693     23.6%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   186,271     15.8%
2016:   279,076     21.7%
2018:   272,062     20.4%
2020:   315,654     22.6%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   182,334     18.7%
2016:   239,876     22.3%
2018:   219,947     19.6%
2020:   269,023     22.2%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   168,477     18.3%
2016:   217,674     20.8%
2018:   193,521     17.6%
2020:   247,225     20.8%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:     94,724     15.0%
2016:   190,834     26.3%
2018:   181,739     23.4%
2020:   218,938     25.6%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     91,782     20.0%
2016:   151,560     28.2%
2018:   145,349     25.1%
2020:   194,225     29.9%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     70,513     18.2%
2016:   103,799     22.3%
2018:   105,113     21.1%
2020:   171,137     30.3%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     45,011     11.7%
2016:     79,883     18.7%
2018:     78,883     17.3%
2020:     96,833     19.8%

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     73,186     21.5%
2016:   102,520     25.4%
2018:     97,258     22.5%
2020:   115,896     24.0%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     52,097     17.1%
2016:     76,886     22.7%
2018:     63,508     17.6%
2020:     84,020     21.5%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     48,488     19.1%
2016:     88,202     29.4%
2018:     91,227     27.4%
2020:   117,175     31.1%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     56,527     21.3%
2016:     71,915     23.1%
2018:     68,151     20.4%
2020:     76,039     20.6%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     21,093     11.7%
2016:     33,987     17.2%
2018:     30,750     14.9%
2020:     45,043     20.6%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     27,639     14.4%
2016:     36,612     18.4%
2018:     37,510     18.3%
2020:     53,742     25.4%

No Galveston numbers as they haven't updated their reporting

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

[It’s so Joever]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

High Republican turnout...

[Gass3268]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

High Republican turnout...

Given every single poll we’ve seen that Republicans aren’t going to vote early, doubtful.

[The Mikado]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

2010 census: 662,614
2015 estimate: 778,846
2019 estimate: 887,207

Denton County is literally not the same place it was 8 or even 4 years ago.

[Ljube]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

High Republican turnout...

Given every single poll we’ve seen that Republicans aren’t going to vote early, doubtful.

If the actual vote is telling us that Republicans are voting early and the polls are telling us that Republicans aren't voting early, then there is a systemic problem with the polls and I believe it's due to non-response bias.

[Non Swing Voter]

are there any counties we should be watching most closely for turnout numbers in Texas that would be a good sign for Biden? 

[GeorgiaModerate]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

High Republican turnout...

Given every single poll we’ve seen that Republicans aren’t going to vote early, doubtful.

If the actual vote is telling us that Republicans are voting early and the polls are telling us that Republicans aren't voting early, then there is a systemic problem with the polls and I believe it's due to non-response bias.

That would be a terrific theory if not for the inconvenient fact that voters in Texas don't register by party.