2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

It’s not low in Virginia where I’ve been on line for nearly 3 hours....

[Adam Griffin]

Pure speculation here, but I wonder if we're seeing a sort of psychological phenomenon in Texas and Georgia where suddenly low-propensity voters who thought their vote wouldn't matter in either state are going to turn out in huge numbers because things look much closer this election. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that, admittedly.

I can't speak much to TX other than its population is booming, but GA's automatic voter registration system began in January 2017 and has now had nearly 4 years to propagate.

It's technically quasi-AVR since it is done via the DMV: poorer people (who are of course low-propensity) are more likely to renew their licenses every 5 years as opposed to 8 due to cost. That of course means the vast majority of these individuals are now registered to vote when they might have not been otherwise. Georgia active registered voters are now 95% of VEP (including inactive RVs, 102%). Even in 2018, the effect of AVR would have only been half as strong as it is now.

How did they manage to trick the GOP-controlled state government into implementing AVR??

It was literally Brian Kemp (SoS-GA) who pushed for the initiative (as well as online voter registration 2 years prior). He basically became a fake conservative/Trumpian when he decided to run for Governor!

The 2018-GOP-GOV primary is a hilarious affair in retrospect because Kemp was the more moderate option but pivoted to being crazy to win due to that being his only option, in large part because Cagle was the crazier of the two for the prior decade but was incumbent LT-GOV, so he likewise pivoted to being moderate to appeal to the establishment GOP base!

Either way, the (historically) more moderate option won the GAGOP primary as always!

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee County Municipalities % of 2016 vote (10/16):

54.52%   VILLAGE OF BAYSIDE - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
35.06%   VILLAGE OF BROWN DEER - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
49.42%   VILLAGE OF FOX POINT - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
31.60%   VILLAGE OF GREENDALE - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
29.18%   VILLAGE OF HALES CORNERS - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
34.38%   VILLAGE OF RIVER HILLS - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
51.81%   VILLAGE OF SHOREWOOD - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
21.48%   VILLAGE OF WEST MILWAUKEE - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
50.82%   VILLAGE OF WHITEFISH BAY - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
26.20%   CITY OF CUDAHY - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
35.90%   CITY OF FRANKLIN - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
47.48%   CITY OF GLENDALE - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
34.09%   CITY OF GREENFIELD - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
27.24%   CITY OF MILWAUKEE - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
33.93%   CITY OF OAK CREEK - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
34.01%   CITY OF ST. FRANCIS - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
28.09%   CITY OF SOUTH MILWAUKEE - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
39.50%   CITY OF WAUWATOSA - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
30.64%   CITY OF WEST ALLIS - MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Before everyone freaks out about the City of Milwaukee, their % is only about 1 point lower than the state %. Not shocking, but the Northeast suburbs are dominating right now.

[Holmes]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

It’s not low in Virginia where I’ve been on line for nearly 3 hours....

Oof, I remember you waiting until more voting locations were open in Fairfax because you wanted to avoid the wait.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

Maybe, but also Biden kinda did triage the state basically

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

Maybe, but also Biden kinda did triage the state basically

Targetsmart really is garbage, as I said well before EV began:

Yeah, they're pretty awful when it comes to modelling partisan composition.

As I said a few days back, be careful with Tom Bonier/Targetsmart's data modelling. It's one thing when they're utilizing registration by party stats in the states where party registration exists, but they also found very similar patterns/results in 2016 as well that turned out to be bogus in terms of determining the outcomes in those states.

*Data reflects registered party where available, and TargetSmart modeled party in states without partisan registration.

[libertpaulian]

She's a Trumpster based on her Tweets and profile...I wouldn't trust what she says.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

Maybe, but also Biden kinda did triage the state basically

It literally makes no sense to say “Trump is leading a county by 40 points” in a state that doesn’t have partisan voter registration and is a county that has demographics that are trending sharply against Republicans.

[Adam Griffin]

I looked at the EV portal Targetsmart setup for GA this cycle, and what does it show?

Relative to 2016: Democrats doing phenomenally better in dying South GA, meaningfully worse in GA-6, and atrociously worse through non-urban North GA. Pshaw!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

Maybe, but also Biden kinda did triage the state basically

Lol, keep grasping. There’s no way to gauge this unless they go through the primary vote history, which coincidentally, a Republican operative has done, and the picture is anything but good for R’s

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

Yep, highly educated suburbs that are clearly trending D are overtly GOP in TargetSmart's obscure modelling.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

I don't know where this dude got his numbers, but Denton County is already at 51% of total 2016 turnout. "In-person" early voting total for the whole county [134846] + returned mail ballot total [17577] (up through 10/16 since we don't have today's totals yet) divided by 2016 total turnout [298645] = .51039

source: https://www.votedenton.com/early-voting-roster/

[Gass3268]

Dane County Towns/Municipalities % of 2016 vote (10/16):

18.22%   TOWN OF ALBION - DANE COUNTY
25.07%   TOWN OF BERRY - DANE COUNTY
34.86%   TOWN OF BLACK EARTH - DANE COUNTY
29.50%   TOWN OF BLOOMING GROVE - DANE COUNTY
23.75%   TOWN OF BLUE MOUNDS - DANE COUNTY
29.36%   TOWN OF BRISTOL - DANE COUNTY
27.10%   TOWN OF BURKE - DANE COUNTY
14.07%   TOWN OF CHRISTIANA - DANE COUNTY
38.64%   TOWN OF COTTAGE GROVE - DANE COUNTY
32.95%   TOWN OF CROSS PLAINS - DANE COUNTY
17.96%   TOWN OF DANE - DANE COUNTY
23.79%   TOWN OF DEERFIELD - DANE COUNTY
26.12%   TOWN OF DUNKIRK - DANE COUNTY
33.43%   TOWN OF DUNN - DANE COUNTY
35.02%   TOWN OF MADISON - DANE COUNTY
24.96%   TOWN OF MAZOMANIE - DANE COUNTY
27.02%   TOWN OF MEDINA - DANE COUNTY
43.43%   TOWN OF MIDDLETON - DANE COUNTY
32.11%   TOWN OF MONTROSE - DANE COUNTY
36.88%   TOWN OF OREGON - DANE COUNTY
30.14%   TOWN OF PERRY - DANE COUNTY
35.06%   TOWN OF PLEASANT SPRINGS - DANE COUNTY
29.02%   TOWN OF PRIMROSE - DANE COUNTY
28.23%   TOWN OF ROXBURY - DANE COUNTY
33.64%   TOWN OF RUTLAND - DANE COUNTY
32.61%   TOWN OF SPRINGDALE - DANE COUNTY
30.92%   TOWN OF SPRINGFIELD - DANE COUNTY
31.18%   TOWN OF SUN PRAIRIE - DANE COUNTY
37.27%   TOWN OF VERMONT - DANE COUNTY
41.36%   TOWN OF VERONA - DANE COUNTY
27.37%   TOWN OF VIENNA - DANE COUNTY
40.92%   TOWN OF WESTPORT - DANE COUNTY
22.00%   TOWN OF YORK - DANE COUNTY
53.51%   VILLAGE OF BELLEVILLE - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
29.77%   VILLAGE OF BLACK EARTH - DANE COUNTY
27.41%   VILLAGE OF BLUE MOUNDS - DANE COUNTY
33.59%   VILLAGE OF BROOKLYN - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
52.81%   VILLAGE OF CAMBRIDGE - MULTIPLE COUNTIES
45.25%   VILLAGE OF COTTAGE GROVE - DANE COUNTY
36.80%   VILLAGE OF CROSS PLAINS - DANE COUNTY
29.57%   VILLAGE OF DANE - DANE COUNTY
26.98%   VILLAGE OF DEERFIELD - DANE COUNTY
47.46%   VILLAGE OF DEFOREST - DANE COUNTY
36.66%   VILLAGE OF MAPLE BLUFF - DANE COUNTY
27.12%   VILLAGE OF MARSHALL - DANE COUNTY
38.83%   VILLAGE OF MAZOMANIE - DANE COUNTY
47.72%   VILLAGE OF MCFARLAND - DANE COUNTY
39.94%   VILLAGE OF MOUNT HOREB - DANE COUNTY
44.32%   VILLAGE OF OREGON - DANE COUNTY
2.83%     VILLAGE OF ROCKDALE - DANE COUNTY (I have to imagine they are behind in their reporting)
68.26%   VILLAGE OF SHOREWOOD HILLS - DANE COUNTY
50.17%   VILLAGE OF WAUNAKEE - DANE COUNTY
46.26%   VILLAGE OF WINDSOR - DANE COUNTY
51.66%   CITY OF FITCHBURG - DANE COUNTY
45.55%   CITY OF MADISON - DANE COUNTY
59.05%   CITY OF MIDDLETON - DANE COUNTY
46.58%   CITY OF MONONA - DANE COUNTY
46.43%   CITY OF STOUGHTON - DANE COUNTY
49.60%   CITY OF SUN PRAIRIE - DANE COUNTY
50.44%   CITY OF VERONA - DANE COUNTY

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

It’s not low in Virginia where I’ve been on line for nearly 3 hours....

Oof, I remember you waiting until more voting locations were open in Fairfax because you wanted to avoid the wait.

Yeah and I’ve been in line for almost 4 hours now...  I think.

[republican1993]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

It’s not low in Virginia where I’ve been on line for nearly 3 hours....

Oof, I remember you waiting until more voting locations were open in Fairfax because you wanted to avoid the wait.

Yeah and I’ve been in line for almost 4 hours now...  I think.

that's crazy! enjoy voting - i wish i was able to cast my vote in person

[Non Swing Voter]

FWIW I’m in a line in fairfax.  The gop is going through the line giving a sample ballot.  90%+ have rejected it.  Very high proportion getting the dem one (taking a photo).  This is the most republican leaning area of Fairfax...

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

It’s not low in Virginia where I’ve been on line for nearly 3 hours....

Oof, I remember you waiting until more voting locations were open in Fairfax because you wanted to avoid the wait.

Yeah and I’ve been in line for almost 4 hours now...  I think.

that's crazy! enjoy voting - i wish i was able to cast my vote in person

Apparently it’s due to a lack of poll workers.  GOP strategy of waiting til Election Day might bite them in the ^*%.

[LimoLiberal]

FWIW I’m in a line in fairfax.  The gop is going through the line giving a sample ballot.  90%+ have rejected it.  Very high proportion getting the dem one (taking a photo).  This is the most republican leaning area of Fairfax...

There goes the redistricting amendment...

[Non Swing Voter]

FWIW I’m in a line in fairfax.  The gop is going through the line giving a sample ballot.  90%+ have rejected it.  Very high proportion getting the dem one (taking a photo).  This is the most republican leaning area of Fairfax...

There goes the redistricting amendment...

Yes was clever of dems to put “vote no for no gerrymandering”. The voters are paying attention.

[Adam Griffin]

Just wanted to point out that GA as of today now has roughly the same number of prospective early voters as all who voted early by any method & at any time in 2016 (57% of all voters). This includes the 1.33m who have actually voted early + 1.06m who have requested mail ballots (but have not yet returned them).

And GA still has 11 more days of in-person early voting (first week averaged 141k voters per day)...

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

You need to keep your trash out of here

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

You need to keep your trash out of here

Can we also acknowledge the brag here isnt even good?  27% is below heavily...

[prag_prog]

I always thought Texas is the state where there is largest room to increase turnout if voting is made more accessible...their turnout % in general is pretty terrible, they were bottom3 in last general election.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Mods please delete this as it is entirely misleading and outright false. OSR mindlessly posted something that is blatantly false and has no basis in reality. The person who posted this tweet is a Trump cultist who has no credibility and no sources on any of this.