2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

At what point can we start extrapolating anything from this?  All I can say at this point is that Democrats are more engaged on actual voting while Trumpers are more engaged in going to rallies and posting on Facebook.

[Tender Branson]

At what point can we start extrapolating anything from this?  All I can say at this point is that Democrats are more engaged on actual voting while Trumpers are more engaged in going to rallies and posting on Facebook.

Please read my WARNING post on page 1.

You cannot extrapolate anything from those numbers, because Trump voters are voting on election day and make up for every postal/early voter.

[tagimaucia]

I suspect that all these numbers will really end up telling us over the next couple of months is "wow, this is going to be a really really high turnout election," which should have already been everyone's expectation after the midterms.

[Crumpets]

The only thing I'm really looking for in these numbers is which demographic groups seem to have unusually high/low enthusiasm for the election. Some states like Nevada tend to have pretty clear correlations between the early vote and the final vote, but those are few and far between.

[Tender Branson]

I suspect that all these numbers will really end up telling us over the next couple of months is "wow, this is going to be a really really high turnout election," which should have already been everyone's expectation after the midterms.

Not necessarily.

Could also be just 140 million votes.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1304519053076246534

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1304519053076246534

This is like a weight lifted off my shoulders

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I suspect that all these numbers will really end up telling us over the next couple of months is "wow, this is going to be a really really high turnout election," which should have already been everyone's expectation after the midterms.

There was no fluke turnout collapse, like in 2010 or 2014. Deplorables were whipped into a frenzy in 2018, yet still got blown out by 8.6%. Turnout was high on both sides, yet there are more Democrats then Republicans in America.

[SenatorCouzens]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

[brucejoel99]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

Hmmmmm....

Date Registered: August 06, 2020

Mods, it's sock check time.

[SenatorCouzens]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

Hmmmmm....

Date Registered: August 06, 2020

Mods, it's sock check time.

I've come here for several years and only recently registered, and this is my only account. Being that you've been here so long, post a lot, and are from Florida, maybe you can answer my question? Weren't there several posts here in October 2016 saying the early vote meant Clinton was going to win Florida? Moreover, didn't "Florida expert" Steve Schale tell us, based upon similar analyses, that Democrats were going to win the premier state-wide races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018? Thanks!

[Non Swing Voter]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

That's true.  It was definitely an MSNBC talking point too.  I think that election was a lot more unpredictable though.  This one is pretty stable.  If Biden can get his people out he should win because the polls aren't fluctuating much.  High turnout will be a good sign.  Trump probably needs a low turnout election so his 40% base makes up a bigger share of the electorate. But we need to be cautious.

[Brittain33]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

That's true.  It was definitely an MSNBC talking point too.  I think that election was a lot more unpredictable though.  This one is pretty stable.  If Biden can get his people out he should win because the polls aren't fluctuating much.  High turnout will be a good sign.  Trump probably needs a low turnout election so his 40% base makes up a bigger share of the electorate. But we need to be cautious.

I remember seeing the early vote in Florida and North Carolina and believing the election was in the bag for Clinton. *sigh*

[Crumpets]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

That's true.  It was definitely an MSNBC talking point too.  I think that election was a lot more unpredictable though.  This one is pretty stable.  If Biden can get his people out he should win because the polls aren't fluctuating much.  High turnout will be a good sign.  Trump probably needs a low turnout election so his 40% base makes up a bigger share of the electorate. But we need to be cautious.

I remember seeing the early vote in Florida and North Carolina and believing the election was in the bag for Clinton. *sigh*

There was definitely an entire episode of Lawrence O'Donnell claiming that one Clinton +7 poll in Florida basically meant they could call the election for her.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1304519053076246534

This is like a weight lifted off my shoulders

My concern with new VbM States is less than TO related issues, but more that ballots will get rejected on "technicalities" such as invalid matching sigs, not properly signing nor sealing ballots, etc...

Something like 10% of DEM KY-SEN ballots were rejected in the largest County because of invalid VbM "technicalities"...

Sure we know how to roll with this in places like OR, WA, CA, AK, HI, CO, UT, AZ, etc....

What about the new VbM places in the era of COVID-19???

Hoping Team Biden and State DEM Parties are putting $$$ into education about VbM within those States / Voters not familiar with how it rolls for those not initiated....

[Rep Jessica]

Last updated: 09/12/2020 09:39 AM Eastern Time

Voters have cast a total of 19,331 ballots in the reporting states of IL, NC, and SC. Military and overseas civilians have primarily cast these ballots.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1304519053076246534

Good to see. Hopefully it still works in Georgia and Florida where there are no Dems in the chain of command to step in if something gets screwy.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1304875346697818114

[Non Swing Voter]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

That's true.  It was definitely an MSNBC talking point too.  I think that election was a lot more unpredictable though.  This one is pretty stable.  If Biden can get his people out he should win because the polls aren't fluctuating much.  High turnout will be a good sign.  Trump probably needs a low turnout election so his 40% base makes up a bigger share of the electorate. But we need to be cautious.

I remember seeing the early vote in Florida and North Carolina and believing the election was in the bag for Clinton. *sigh*

The only thing that cautions me about that election though, is what Comey did at the very end.  If he didn't act so negligently perhaps she would have pulled it out in some of those states. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

That's true.  It was definitely an MSNBC talking point too.  I think that election was a lot more unpredictable though.  This one is pretty stable.  If Biden can get his people out he should win because the polls aren't fluctuating much.  High turnout will be a good sign.  Trump probably needs a low turnout election so his 40% base makes up a bigger share of the electorate. But we need to be cautious.

I remember seeing the early vote in Florida and North Carolina and believing the election was in the bag for Clinton. *sigh*

There was definitely an entire episode of Lawrence O'Donnell claiming that one Clinton +7 poll in Florida basically meant they could call the election for her.

lol yup.  that's exactly what I was thinking of when I mentioned MSNBC talking points.  He was basically popping champagne corks saying that the people who already voted were voting for Hillary at such a wide margin that Trump couldn't possibly make it up...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1304875346697818114

Shouldn't this be cross-posted in the Voter Suppression thread?



What are NC's laws regarding voter notification / challenge options in the event that their votes are rejected?

Looks like the Black & Brown Brothers and Sisters ballots are getting chucked out at an alarming rate thus far....

[Dr. Arch]

When do we start getting consistent daily updates from states with modeled/registered party IDs? I know they don't mean too much, except maybe this year when most voters are likely to vote using VBM, but at least it gives me something to look forward to in this subforum.

[Rep Jessica]

Voters have cast a total of 22,774 ballots in the reporting states of FL, IL, NC, and SC.
Returned
NC 22,709
IL 31
SC 10
FL 24

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

What are NC's laws regarding voter notification / challenge options in the event that their votes are rejected?

Looks like the Black & Brown Brothers and Sisters ballots are getting chucked out at an alarming rate thus far....

The board will mail a new ballot out so they can fill it out correctly.

I don't really think this is voter suppression. If a voter can't read the instructions and go through the proper procedures to complete the witness forms, that's on them, not the system.

You're looking for racism where there is none.

[Sorenroy]

When do we start getting consistent daily updates from states with modeled/registered party IDs? I know they don't mean too much, except maybe this year when most voters are likely to vote using VBM, but at least it gives me something to look forward to in this subforum.

As with many aspects of North Carolina voting and registration, the data on who has returned an absentee ballot is publicly available.

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/absentee-data

Current Accepted Ballots:
Democrat — 13,075 (57.6%)
Unaffiliated — 6,557 (28.9%)
Republican — 3,018 (13.3%)
Other — 59 (0.3%)

Do with that what you will. It's only 22,709 votes. Or 0.5% of the total votes cast in North Carolina in 2016.