Why did JFK lose Wisconsin to Nixon?

[Dead Parrot]

At first glance, Wisconsin's large Catholic population would seem to suggest that JFK would do quite well there (it had already given him a sizable primary win against a senator from a neighboring state). It was the only Midwestern state that Al Smith had kept within single digits against Herbert Hoover. And yet Nixon ended up winning it by nearly four percentage points. Why?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Germans and Yankees voting Republican.

[Indy Texas]

In the party system that was in place at that time, German Catholics voted primarily as Germans rather than Catholics.

Regarding the Hoover-Smith race, by the late 1920s, the movement to repeal Prohibition was picking up steam, and German Catholics were pro-repeal, which pushed many of them into the Democratic camp. The GOP had also started going in a more nativist direction for the 1928 campaign (in part to try to make inroads in the South, which they succeeded in doing) which turned off anyone who wasn't a British Isles Protestant.

[Podgy the Bear]

Interesting to note that Wisconsin voted every time for Nixon (5 elections) when he was the presidential or vice-presidential nominee.

[Calthrina950]

Interesting to note that Wisconsin voted every time for Nixon (5 elections) when he was the presidential or vice-presidential nominee.

In 1972, however, Wisconsin was one of George McGovern's better states, voting 6.74% more Democratic than the national average; Nixon won it by 9.68%.

[Sumner 1868]

Interesting to note that Wisconsin voted every time for Nixon (5 elections) when he was the presidential or vice-presidential nominee.

In 1972, however, Wisconsin was one of George McGovern's better states, voting 6.74% more Democratic than the national average; Nixon won it by 9.68%.

Humphrey did a bit better than JFK as well.

[TDAS04]

Scandinavian Lutherans, even progressive ones, were leery of voting for Kennedy.  That’s also why Minnesota only barely went for JFK.

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting to note that Wisconsin voted every time for Nixon (5 elections) when he was the presidential or vice-presidential nominee.

In 1972, however, Wisconsin was one of George McGovern's better states, voting 6.74% more Democratic than the national average; Nixon won it by 9.68%.

Humphrey did a bit better than JFK as well.

Humphrey losing Wisconsin to Nixon is far more of a head scratcher than Kennedy losing it.  As a Senator from neighboring Minnesota, Humphrey was considered “Wisconsin’s third Senator”.

[Alcibiades]

Interesting to note that Wisconsin voted every time for Nixon (5 elections) when he was the presidential or vice-presidential nominee.

In 1972, however, Wisconsin was one of George McGovern's better states, voting 6.74% more Democratic than the national average; Nixon won it by 9.68%.

Humphrey did a bit better than JFK as well.

Humphrey losing Wisconsin to Nixon is far more of a head scratcher than Kennedy losing it.  As a Senator from neighboring Minnesota, Humphrey was considered “Wisconsin’s third Senator”.

Even more perplexing is how Carter, ostensibly a much worse fit for the state than Humphrey, managed to win Wisconsin. I remember reading somewhere that in 1976 this was considered the most surprising state result of the election.

Carter’s good showing in NW Wisconsin seems to have put him over the top (same as Dukakis), whereas JFK and Humphrey were largely confined to the Superior and Michigan coasts. It was not until 1992 that the SW (part of the politically baffling Driftless region, whose shift to the Democrats seems inexplicable to me) became a Democratic stronghold in the state.

[mianfei]

Scandinavian Lutherans, even progressive ones, were leery of voting for Kennedy.  That’s also why Minnesota only barely went for JFK.

That is the key issue, and it must be remembered that Scandinavian-Americans were Adlai Stevenson’s strongest support group outside the South. The same was even more markedly true, of course, in the Pacific Northwest, which had been rapidly trending Democratic at state and local levels before 1960 and which a generic Democrat would likely have won at that election.