Morning Consult WI: Daily Tracking Poll

[Wiz in Wis]

Looks like Morning Consult now has a daily tracking poll in Wisconsin. Current value (Sept 2) is Biden +10.

https://morningconsult.com/form/wisconsin-presidential-election-tracking/

[republican1993]

Isn't the morning consult poll +8 for biden currently? I can't see wisconsin being left of the national polls - i see this rice +5/+6 (trump getting 45/46 atm) but i'm curious what marquette polling will say..

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This looks to be a 10-day rolling average with a sample size of about ~800 likely voters per data point and a MoE of 3.5%.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 2 update (10 day rolling average until September 2):

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 42% (n/c)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 3 update (10 day rolling average until September 3):

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 42% (n/c)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 4 update:

Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)

[Annatar]

It should be noted Morning Consult had Trump approval at 44% in October of 2018 and the exit poll found it at 48%, they underestimated his approval rating by 4% in WI, I assume they are using the same methodology here.

[DaleCooper]

It should be noted Morning Consult had Trump approval at 44% in October of 2018 and the exit poll found it at 48%, they underestimated his approval rating by 4% in WI, I assume they are using the same methodology here.

That's really not too damning of an underestimate, especially given that it's at minimum several days dated by the time election day rolled around. For comparison, Fox News polling had Trump's approval among likely voters at 52% in late October 2018.

[Annatar]

It should be noted Morning Consult had Trump approval at 44% in October of 2018 and the exit poll found it at 48%, they underestimated his approval rating by 4% in WI, I assume they are using the same methodology here.

That's really not too damning of an underestimate, especially given that it's at minimum several days dated by the time election day rolled around. For comparison, Fox News polling had Trump's approval among likely voters at 52% in late October 2018.

Which Fox poll in WI had Trump approval at 52% in WI, do you have a link to the poll.

[DaleCooper]

It should be noted Morning Consult had Trump approval at 44% in October of 2018 and the exit poll found it at 48%, they underestimated his approval rating by 4% in WI, I assume they are using the same methodology here.

That's really not too damning of an underestimate, especially given that it's at minimum several days dated by the time election day rolled around. For comparison, Fox News polling had Trump's approval among likely voters at 52% in late October 2018.

Which Fox poll in WI had Trump approval at 52% in WI, do you have a link to the poll.

I got that wrong, I was looking at his recent Fox AZ numbers, which had his approval at 52% in October 2018 and confused them for the WI numbers I had open in another tab.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302738230098513922?s=19

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302738230098513922?s=19

No change for Biden and Trump +1%.

[wbrocks67]

The RNC already feels so long ago but this poll still has 2 days of it in it.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302738230098513922?s=19

No change for Biden and Trump +1%.

At this rate it'll be Trump +50 on Election Day.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302738230098513922?s=19

No change for Biden and Trump +1%.

At this rate it'll be Trump +50 on Election Day.

Biden does need it to stop going down soon.  Interested to see what happens when the RNC days roll off.  I think the Biden+10/11 stuff a few days ago included the end of the DNC?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Morning Consult have just given another (relatively early) update for the next day's polling.

August 27-September 5:
763 likely voters
(MoE is still 3.5%)

Biden 50% (-1%)
Trump 44% (n/c)

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302738230098513922?s=19

No change for Biden and Trump +1%.

At this rate it'll be Trump +50 on Election Day.

Biden does need it to stop going down soon.  Interested to see what happens when the RNC days roll off.  I think the Biden+10/11 stuff a few days ago included the end of the DNC?

Possibly the steady narrowing is the roll off of the DNC. We'll see what happens.

EDIT: That said, +6 is where CBS/YouGov's post RNC poll puts WI

[Lief 🗽]

I think the 27 through 29 were Trump’s best days in the national tracker (that was when we had the RNC bump shock poll from these guys) so Biden should gain in the next three days as they drop off.

[sobo]

August 28-September 6:
770 likely voters
(MoE is still 3.5%)

Biden 51% (+1%)
Trump 43% (-1%)

[solidcoalition]

Wisconsin will likely be within theee points either way.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wisconsin will likely be within theee points either way.

Ok SN.

[sobo]

August 30-September 8:
799 likely voters
(MoE is still 3.5%)

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 42% (-1%)

[Landslide Lyndon]

August 30-September 8:
799 likely voters
(MoE is still 3.5%)

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 42% (-1%)

TRUMP COLLAPSING!!!
WOODWARDGATE!!!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

August 31-September 9:
816 likely voters
(MoE is still 3.5%)

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 42% (NC)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin will likely be within theee points either way.

Biden leads in another poll by 7 in WI and PA, so no.