Been saying for a while now that AZ is the most likely Trump -> Biden flip this year (and this isn’t even a state where Ds tend to underpoll, which makes it even worse for him(.
I tend to agree, though it's a bit of a tossup between AZ and NE2 for me. I could easily see a Rust Belt state or two having a wider margin than those, but I feel like they might be the surest flips.
Dave Wasserman has been saying for a while that NE-2 is Biden's most likely flip, even more than Michigan.
Would be awesome if a big time pollster did a poll there.
