FOX News: AZ: Biden +9; NC: Biden +4; WI: Biden +8

[DaleCooper]

I want to wait for the next Marquette poll to confirm, but it's really starting to look like the Wisconsin fear-mongering was way, way, way overblown. It's likely Biden at this point.

[DaleCooper]

Been saying for a while now that AZ is the most likely Trump -> Biden flip this year (and this isn’t even a state where Ds tend to underpoll, which makes it even worse for him(.

I tend to agree, though it's a bit of a tossup between AZ and NE2 for me. I could easily see a Rust Belt state or two having a wider margin than those, but I feel like they might be the surest flips.

[DaleCooper]

Arizona has been one of the biggest tragedies of the COVID pandemic so it's no surprise to me that it may have been a ticking timebomb for Trump this year. Look at how much the pandemic has tanked the reputation of their once-popular Republican governor.

[DaleCooper]

Biden is tied with White Catholics here. If that's even close on election day he's going to win big.

Biden's Catholicism was always an underrated asset for Democrats this year. Trump and Republicans have an advantage with white religious people in general, of course, but it's only the Evangelicals that they really monopolize.

[DaleCooper]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

[DaleCooper]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

[DaleCooper]

Looking at the Economist model, the polls of Wisconsin have been similar to the national polls since the start of the pandemic. Lots of double-digit Biden leads, but most of them high single-digits with a couple low outliers in the 4-5 range. No non-Trafalger polls have shown a Trump lead in Wisconsin in a long time.

[DaleCooper]

The problem is that we don't have the good polling we need to get an accurate picture of pre-, mid-, and post-convention ratings. The batch of polls we got this week indicates little to no bump at all, and +4 and +8 are not incompatible data by any means. If a lead is in the mid-to-high single digits then you're going to see results ranging from within that margin of error to just outside of it. It's not like the Fox poll has Biden at a 12 point lead or anything, and the +8 is consistent with a number of other polls from around the same time. For all we know, Kenosha didn't help Trump at all and actually hurt him like the Floyd protests did. Or maybe Trump's decision to ignore COVID at the convention hurt him in Wisconsin. Or maybe Fox, Morning Consult, and that other poll are all simultaneous outliers. We'll have to keep an eye on the data and see.