FOX News: AZ: Biden +9; NC: Biden +4; WI: Biden +8

[ElectionsGuy]

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

[ElectionsGuy]

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.

You seem to have a grasp on polling fundamentals, EG, so what's your reasoning for not liking these numbers short of "because I don't believe them"? (And yes, my red/blue av friends: you do this, too).

Bear in mind that this is coming from someone who will eat her Sunday hat if Biden wins AZ by nine, North Carolina by four, and Wisconsin by eight. 

Mostly because they're completely out of line with the national race and with how the race has trended the last few weeks (slightly towards Trump). Fox had some pretty aggregious errors in 2018 too, they're also another pollster (like CNN) that has these wild changes that don't make sense (race tightened from Biden +8 to tie earlier this year, which is beyond just regular MoV movement and goes into changing their sample nonsensically).

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

[ElectionsGuy]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

Marquette was +4 with LIKELY voters and it was before both conventions too. I thought it was accurate then, what I don't think is accurate is Biden doubling that after a 1-2 trend against him nationally, especially when Fox had only +7 nationally before the conventions.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

Trafalgar polls over Fox? WTF are you smoking?

Is this a troll? You're trolling, right?

In 2018 the average error in Trafalgar polls was equal to Fox, I'm not saying either trafalgar or fox are great polls but they performed about the same in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120

Not to mention I said FOR WISCONSIN, not necessarily overall. I wouldn't trust Trafalgar polls in Arizona or Texas, for example. They didn't poll Wisconsin in 2016 (nor did they do Minnesota) but they have a good track record in 2016 and 2018 for alike states.

[ElectionsGuy]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

Marquette was +4 with LIKELY voters and it was before both conventions too. I thought it was accurate then, what I don't think is accurate is Biden doubling that after a 1-2 trend against him nationally, especially when Fox had only +7 nationally before the conventions.

Marquette was +5% with likely voters.

It was 50-46 Biden

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

Trafalgar polls over Fox? WTF are you smoking?

Is this a troll? You're trolling, right?

In 2018 the average error in Trafalgar polls was equal to Fox, I'm not saying either trafalgar or fox are great polls but they performed about the same in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120

Not to mention I said FOR WISCONSIN, not necessarily overall. I wouldn't trust Trafalgar polls in Arizona or Texas, for example. They didn't poll Wisconsin in 2016 (nor did they do Minnesota) but they have a good track record in 2016 and 2018 for alike states.

Let's go through this again. Wisconsin is going to end up less than 1 point for Biden. I said I trusted Trafalgar and Marquette the most to give me an idea of how Wisconsin would go.

Trafalgar - Biden +1
Marquette - Biden +5

What did Fox and other "high quality" polls say...

Reuters/Ipsos - Biden +10
NYT/Siena - Biden +11
CNN - Biden +8 (was Biden +10 before)
ABC/WaPo - Biden +17

Even Emerson, which Atlas hates for being slightly better for Trump, had Biden +8 in Wisconsin. It's clear as day these pollsters DO NOT KNOW how to poll the state. I knew Biden was not going to win Wisconsin by more than 5, it was completely unrealistic with how 2016 and 2018 went and the extent to which Trump was still approved of.

But I was accused of being a troll or "smoking" something for stating this.