FOX News: AZ: Biden +9; NC: Biden +4; WI: Biden +8
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  FOX News: AZ: Biden +9; NC: Biden +4; WI: Biden +8
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Author Topic: FOX News: AZ: Biden +9; NC: Biden +4; WI: Biden +8  (Read 6376 times)
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #75 on: September 02, 2020, 10:44:38 PM »

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Annatar
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« Reply #76 on: September 02, 2020, 10:48:27 PM »

Good polls for Biden in AZ and WI, interesting how NC and AZ are so different despite voting almost identically in 2016. In 2018 Fox polls on average had a 3.05% bias in favour of the democrats.


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120
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Gass3268
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« Reply #77 on: September 03, 2020, 12:34:14 AM »

Biden is tied with White Catholics here. If that's even close on election day he's going to win big.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #78 on: September 03, 2020, 12:56:05 AM »

Biden is tied with White Catholics here. If that's even close on election day he's going to win big.

Biden's Catholicism was always an underrated asset for Democrats this year. Trump and Republicans have an advantage with white religious people in general, of course, but it's only the Evangelicals that they really monopolize.
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VAR
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« Reply #79 on: September 03, 2020, 01:04:49 AM »

Trump approval (LV):

AZ: 43/56 (RV: 42/57, was 46/52)
NC: 49/50 (RV: 49/50, was 48/51)
WI: 45/54 (RV: 45/53, was 45/54)
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #80 on: September 03, 2020, 01:38:16 AM »


It looks like 3/4 SW states are now going to be Democratic. I wonder if Utah will trend D long term as well, especially post Trump.

Yes. Dramatically.

Population growth and education levels are extremely high, and almost all of the state's population lives in areas that most people would describe as "suburban." It's literally like if Gwinnett County, Georgia were scaled up to an entire state. The LDS church is the only thing keeping Utah red, and as its influence continues to decline, so will the Republican Party's.

One interesting effect of this is that almost all Utah Democrats are progressives, as most of those who would be moderate Democrats in other states are Republicans here because of the church. That's why Bernie Sanders got nearly 80% of the vote here in the 2016 primaries, and still won this state easily in 2020 even during Biden's massive Super Tuesday surge.

It's also probably what's kept the UTGOP sane, so we should probably be grateful for it!
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #81 on: September 03, 2020, 04:11:24 AM »


It looks like 3/4 SW states are now going to be Democratic. I wonder if Utah will trend D long term as well, especially post Trump.

It makes a telephone shape. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #82 on: September 03, 2020, 06:45:18 AM »

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #83 on: September 03, 2020, 06:47:01 AM »

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.


For a user called "ElectionsGuy", your takes sure are moronic. You're the equivalent to a user named CookingGuy who eats chicken raw from the package.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #84 on: September 03, 2020, 06:47:49 AM »

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.

You seem to have a grasp on polling fundamentals, EG, so what's your reasoning for not liking these numbers short of "because I don't believe them"? (And yes, my red/blue av friends: you do this, too).

Bear in mind that this is coming from someone who will eat her Sunday hat if Biden wins AZ by nine, North Carolina by four, and Wisconsin by eight. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #85 on: September 03, 2020, 06:48:33 AM »

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #86 on: September 03, 2020, 06:50:50 AM »

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #87 on: September 03, 2020, 06:56:03 AM »

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.

You seem to have a grasp on polling fundamentals, EG, so what's your reasoning for not liking these numbers short of "because I don't believe them"? (And yes, my red/blue av friends: you do this, too).

Bear in mind that this is coming from someone who will eat her Sunday hat if Biden wins AZ by nine, North Carolina by four, and Wisconsin by eight. 

Mostly because they're completely out of line with the national race and with how the race has trended the last few weeks (slightly towards Trump). Fox had some pretty aggregious errors in 2018 too, they're also another pollster (like CNN) that has these wild changes that don't make sense (race tightened from Biden +8 to tie earlier this year, which is beyond just regular MoV movement and goes into changing their sample nonsensically).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #88 on: September 03, 2020, 06:56:44 AM »

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.

You seem to have a grasp on polling fundamentals, EG, so what's your reasoning for not liking these numbers short of "because I don't believe them"? (And yes, my red/blue av friends: you do this, too).



You don't believe them and AK Gross is tied with Sullivan, that's why Biden is winning by an insurmountable lead. Trump needs a 278 state, not a 260 blue wall state and MN, WI, MI and PA are going blue

Bear in mind that this is coming from someone who will eat her Sunday hat if Biden wins AZ by nine, North Carolina by four, and Wisconsin by eight. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #89 on: September 03, 2020, 06:58:35 AM »

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #90 on: September 03, 2020, 06:59:04 AM »

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.

You seem to have a grasp on polling fundamentals, EG, so what's your reasoning for not liking these numbers short of "because I don't believe them"? (And yes, my red/blue av friends: you do this, too).



You don't believe them and AK Gross is tied with Sullivan, that's why Biden is winning by an insurmountable lead. Trump needs a 278 state, not a 260 blue wall state and MN, WI, MI and PA are going blue

Bear in mind that this is coming from someone who will eat her Sunday hat if Biden wins AZ by nine, North Carolina by four, and Wisconsin by eight. 

Ah, but the difference is that I LIKE these numbers, OC Tongue
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #91 on: September 03, 2020, 07:02:01 AM »

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

girl what.

the Fox News poll is showing pretty much exactly what the Morning Consult poll showed as well.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #92 on: September 03, 2020, 07:05:12 AM »

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #93 on: September 03, 2020, 07:05:22 AM »

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

Fox News is an A- pollster.

Trafalgar is a C- pollster. And that's before taking into account the "desirability" nonsense that Trafalgar uses this time around to "unskew" the polls.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #94 on: September 03, 2020, 07:05:51 AM »

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #95 on: September 03, 2020, 07:07:21 AM »

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6
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tjstarling
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« Reply #96 on: September 03, 2020, 07:09:43 AM »

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.
And your basis for liking Trafalgar here is what exactly? You just complained about CNN and FOX polls showing wild swings, but at least we can evaluate trends with those polls. Trafalgar apparently didn’t even poll Wisconsin in 2018 (but Fox was terrible in 2018 so let’s trust a here pollster who didn’t even try). You’re literally supporting a poll bases on one datapoint (their 2016 president poll cause their so great they didn’t even try to release their take on the senate race that year so we can’t even draw any conclusions on accuracy there) and because it fits your narrative. Do these polls look like outliers? Sure. But no more so then the Emerson poll that fit your narrative. Throw them in an average, that’s the point of having a variety of data points measured with error.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #97 on: September 03, 2020, 07:20:38 AM »

Looking at the Economist model, the polls of Wisconsin have been similar to the national polls since the start of the pandemic. Lots of double-digit Biden leads, but most of them high single-digits with a couple low outliers in the 4-5 range. No non-Trafalger polls have shown a Trump lead in Wisconsin in a long time.
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Badger
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« Reply #98 on: September 03, 2020, 07:26:54 AM »

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

Trafalgar polls over Fox? WTF are you smoking?

Is this a troll? You're trolling, right?
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #99 on: September 03, 2020, 07:31:29 AM »
« Edited: September 03, 2020, 08:05:32 AM by tagimaucia »

The thing about Tragalgar is to think they’re correct, you have to think that nearly all other pollsters with good track records are completely wrong... w/r/t not just state polls but national ones too.  

I guess you could believe national polls are still right if you think Wisconsin and Michigan have suddenly zoomed from ~2-3 points to the right of the country to more like ~7-9, but I doubt anyone actually thinks that (or do they)?!
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