FOX News: AZ: Biden +9; NC: Biden +4; WI: Biden +8

[Podgy the Bear]

Best polling news all day in a good day of polls for Joe!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Been saying for a while now that AZ is the most likely Trump -> Biden flip this year (and this isn’t even a state where Ds tend to underpoll, which makes it even worse for him(.

I tend to agree, though it's a bit of a tossup between AZ and NE2 for me. I could easily see a Rust Belt state or two having a wider margin than those, but I feel like they might be the surest flips.

Dave Wasserman has been saying for a while that NE-2 is Biden's most likely flip, even more than Michigan.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And here's the release!

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states

August 29-September 1

AZ
772 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Biden 49%
Trump 40%
Jorgensen 3%
Other 1%
Don't know 6%

Change among larger sample of 853 registered voters with a MoE of 3% (previous RV poll May 30-June 2):

Biden 49% (+3%)
Trump 39% (-3%)
Jorgensen 3% + Other 2% (n/c from Other 5%, Jorgensen not listed in previous poll)
Would not vote 1% (n/c)
Don't know 6% (+1%)

NC
722 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Biden 50%
Trump 46%
Jorgensen 1%
Hawkins 0%
Blankenship 0%
Other 0%
Don't know 2%

Change among larger sample of 804 registered voters with a MoE of 3.5% (previous RV poll June 20-23):

Biden 49% (+2%)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% + Hawkins 1% + Blankenship 1% + Other 0% (+1% from Other 3%, Jorgensen, Hawkins and Blankenship not listed in previous poll)
Would not vote 1% (-1%)
Don't know 3% (n/c)

WI
801 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Biden 50%
Trump 42%
Jorgensen 2%
Other 1%
Don't know 5%

Change among larger sample of 858 registered voters with a MoE of 3% (previous RV poll May 30 - June 2):

Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 41% (+1%)
Jorgensen 2% + Other 1% (-1% from Other 4%, Jorgensen not listed in previous poll)
Would not vote 1% (-1%)
Not sure 5% (n/c)

[Gass3268]

Been saying for a while now that AZ is the most likely Trump -> Biden flip this year (and this isn’t even a state where Ds tend to underpoll, which makes it even worse for him(.

I tend to agree, though it's a bit of a tossup between AZ and NE2 for me. I could easily see a Rust Belt state or two having a wider margin than those, but I feel like they might be the surest flips.

Dave Wasserman has been saying for a while that NE-2 is Biden's most likely flip, even more than Michigan.

Would be awesome if a big time pollster did a poll there.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Been saying for a while now that AZ is the most likely Trump -> Biden flip this year (and this isn’t even a state where Ds tend to underpoll, which makes it even worse for him(.

I tend to agree, though it's a bit of a tossup between AZ and NE2 for me. I could easily see a Rust Belt state or two having a wider margin than those, but I feel like they might be the surest flips.

Dave Wasserman has been saying for a while that NE-2 is Biden's most likely flip, even more than Michigan.

Yes, I don't know why people forget that while he did win the district Trump did worse in NE02 than Mccain.

[soundchaser]

Wait, this is a three-way poll? Yeah, this is unquestionably good news for Joe.

[libertpaulian]

The fact that they have Biden up this much in Wisconsin even after the RNC and the worst of the Kenosha riots is terrible news for Trump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Arizona (apparently) trending D faster than Virginia did is under-discussed

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This is the 2nd poll in a row this week to have Biden >+7% in Arizona, and Biden >=+8% in Wisconsin, glorious news!

[wbrocks67]

Wow. Pretty much all in line with what we've gotten recently.

AZ is the most shocking, b/c the fact that we know have two polls that have Biden +9 and +10. Is it possible that Ducey's handling of the virus was that bad that it just catapulted Biden even further?

Wisconsin also lines up perfectly with Morning Consult (Biden +9), showing that if anything, Biden's lead has appeared to grow there since the Kenosha incident.

North Carolina also lines up with Morning Consult's recent two polls (Biden +3 and Biden +2).

It appears that either the polls are wrong or Morning Consult is surprisingly good this year.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Arizona (apparently) trending D faster than Virginia did is under-discussed

Back under Obama, it was VA/NC/GA that were zooming leftwards now they're being left behind by CO/AZ/TX.

[Brittain33]

[libertpaulian]

AZ 2016=CO 2004.

AZ 2020=CO 2008.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm honestly starting to think the Trump "bump" might have been noise from overall bad pollsters

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Arizona (apparently) trending D faster than Virginia did is under-discussed

Back under Obama, it was VA/NC/GA that were zooming leftwards now they're being left behind by CO/AZ/TX.

Driving home my belief that this election is a mix of 1980 campaigning with 2008 results.

Virginia 2008 = Arizona 2020 & North Carolina 2008 = Georgia or Texas 2020.

I really wish they polled Georgia & Texas. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden is up 2-3 in both states now

[Yank2133]

Arizona (apparently) trending D faster than Virginia did is under-discussed

Back under Obama, it was VA/NC/GA that were zooming leftwards now they're being left behind by CO/AZ/TX.

Left behind? VA is already there.

Joe has an outside chance of winning by double digits here.

[Crumpets]

Ooga chaka ooga chaka ooga ooga ooga chaka

[Dr. Arch]

CC Arizona is evolving meme?

[dunceDude]

McSally is going to be a great public servant and hopefully goes back to work in national security. She should just coast the next two months tbh... she seems clear-headed enough to see the writing on the wall.

[forza nocta]

Reports about Joe Biden’s demise were highly exaggerated

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Biden wins WI, AZ, and NE-02, he doesn’t even need PA, right?

[Podgy the Bear]

Got to give RCP some credit.  They have already placed Fox numbers and show a clean sweep in the battleground states for Biden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Biden wins WI, AZ, and NE-02, he doesn’t even need PA, right?

Yes, assuming he also flips Michigan and everything else stays the same, it gets him to exactly 270:

[Horus]

Biden leads under 45s in AZ by 33 points.

[Dr. Arch]

Biden leads under 45s in AZ by 33 points.

AZ is the new CO?