FOX News: AZ: Biden +9; NC: Biden +4; WI: Biden +8

[Sbane]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

This isn't even out of line with Marquette's last poll. Both polls show Biden at 50.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301538617005875201

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301538617005875201

Exam scores are, as in the past, UNFAIR and WRONG.  They have been from the beginning, way off in 2019. 

I believe I'm going to graduate med school with a 4.0. 

[Rand]

Trump is sweating like a dog.

[Dumbo]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301538617005875201

So did Romney, so did HRC

[Annatar]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

Trafalgar polls over Fox? WTF are you smoking?

Is this a troll? You're trolling, right?

In 2018 the average error in Trafalgar polls was equal to Fox, I'm not saying either trafalgar or fox are great polls but they performed about the same in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120

[ElectionsGuy]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

Marquette was +4 with LIKELY voters and it was before both conventions too. I thought it was accurate then, what I don't think is accurate is Biden doubling that after a 1-2 trend against him nationally, especially when Fox had only +7 nationally before the conventions.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

Trafalgar polls over Fox? WTF are you smoking?

Is this a troll? You're trolling, right?

In 2018 the average error in Trafalgar polls was equal to Fox, I'm not saying either trafalgar or fox are great polls but they performed about the same in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120

Not to mention I said FOR WISCONSIN, not necessarily overall. I wouldn't trust Trafalgar polls in Arizona or Texas, for example. They didn't poll Wisconsin in 2016 (nor did they do Minnesota) but they have a good track record in 2016 and 2018 for alike states.

[lfromnj]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

Marquette was +4 with LIKELY voters and it was before both conventions too. I thought it was accurate then, what I don't think is accurate is Biden doubling that after a 1-2 trend against him nationally, especially when Fox had only +7 nationally before the conventions.

Yeah just take Marquette for WI. The average comes out close to what Marquette has anyway.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

Marquette was +4 with LIKELY voters and it was before both conventions too. I thought it was accurate then, what I don't think is accurate is Biden doubling that after a 1-2 trend against him nationally, especially when Fox had only +7 nationally before the conventions.

Marquette was +5% with likely voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.

For a user called "ElectionsGuy", your takes sure are moronic. You're the equivalent to a user named CookingGuy who eats chicken raw from the package.

He made this classic take, which might be the single dumbest one I've ever seen on the forum:

    Just out of political curiosity I would love to see some college town like Madison or Ames or Berkeley hold a city wide referendum on something like a city wide white privilege tax that only whites would have to pay, with proceeds used to fund some type of reparations.

I'm almost certain Berkeley, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Madison, Minneapolis, Ann Arbor, etc. would all vote for that.

[ElectionsGuy]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

Marquette was +4 with LIKELY voters and it was before both conventions too. I thought it was accurate then, what I don't think is accurate is Biden doubling that after a 1-2 trend against him nationally, especially when Fox had only +7 nationally before the conventions.

Marquette was +5% with likely voters.

It was 50-46 Biden

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

Marquette was +4 with LIKELY voters and it was before both conventions too. I thought it was accurate then, what I don't think is accurate is Biden doubling that after a 1-2 trend against him nationally, especially when Fox had only +7 nationally before the conventions.

Marquette was +5% with likely voters.

It was 50-46 Biden

Whoops! I misread and omitted leaners.

My apologies.

[wbrocks67]

Marquette I definitely understand, but why is Trafalger more desirable than a Fox poll? Also, the topline of this Fox poll of Wisconsin is within the margin of error of the last Marquette poll.

Remind me, Dale, what was the last Marquette poll?

49-44 (Biden +5)

That's actually a bit less than I thought it was. I was remembering Biden +6

Marquette was +4 with LIKELY voters and it was before both conventions too. I thought it was accurate then, what I don't think is accurate is Biden doubling that after a 1-2 trend against him nationally, especially when Fox had only +7 nationally before the conventions.

and Fox was on the lower end pre-convention, so it's possible they were a slight outlier at the time.

[DaleCooper]

The problem is that we don't have the good polling we need to get an accurate picture of pre-, mid-, and post-convention ratings. The batch of polls we got this week indicates little to no bump at all, and +4 and +8 are not incompatible data by any means. If a lead is in the mid-to-high single digits then you're going to see results ranging from within that margin of error to just outside of it. It's not like the Fox poll has Biden at a 12 point lead or anything, and the +8 is consistent with a number of other polls from around the same time. For all we know, Kenosha didn't help Trump at all and actually hurt him like the Floyd protests did. Or maybe Trump's decision to ignore COVID at the convention hurt him in Wisconsin. Or maybe Fox, Morning Consult, and that other poll are all simultaneous outliers. We'll have to keep an eye on the data and see.

[MT Treasurer]

This is some of the worst statewide polling done by Fox yet this year. Their nationwide poll before the conventions had Biden +7 and now I'm supposed to believe he's doing better in Arizona and Wisconsin than before? November can't come soon enough.

I’m honestly amazed at how confident you seem to be that Trump's strength is being vastly underestimated when nothing points to this being the case, unlike in 2016. I agree with you that these numbers are likely inflating Biden's strength (and Fox has released some pretty serious pro-D outliers in recent elections), but the big picture (which goes way beyond a few state polls) really speaks for itself. You seem to be convinced that anyone who doesn’t subscribe to your view that Trump is at absolute worst a slight underdog lives in a bubble and is completely blind to the "facts", which is just weird.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

Trafalgar polls over Fox? WTF are you smoking?

Is this a troll? You're trolling, right?

In 2018 the average error in Trafalgar polls was equal to Fox, I'm not saying either trafalgar or fox are great polls but they performed about the same in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120

Not to mention I said FOR WISCONSIN, not necessarily overall. I wouldn't trust Trafalgar polls in Arizona or Texas, for example. They didn't poll Wisconsin in 2016 (nor did they do Minnesota) but they have a good track record in 2016 and 2018 for alike states.

Let's go through this again. Wisconsin is going to end up less than 1 point for Biden. I said I trusted Trafalgar and Marquette the most to give me an idea of how Wisconsin would go.

Trafalgar - Biden +1
Marquette - Biden +5

What did Fox and other "high quality" polls say...

Reuters/Ipsos - Biden +10
NYT/Siena - Biden +11
CNN - Biden +8 (was Biden +10 before)
ABC/WaPo - Biden +17

Even Emerson, which Atlas hates for being slightly better for Trump, had Biden +8 in Wisconsin. It's clear as day these pollsters DO NOT KNOW how to poll the state. I knew Biden was not going to win Wisconsin by more than 5, it was completely unrealistic with how 2016 and 2018 went and the extent to which Trump was still approved of.

But I was accused of being a troll or "smoking" something for stating this.

[BigSerg]

I'm skeptical of NC and AZ (at least by those margins), but I'm sure that WI number will have many posters here breathing a small sigh of relief.

Nobody should be breathing a sigh of relief because of a Fox poll lol

I'm not sure I follow. 

People should not take Fox Polls as super high-quality polls, is what I'm trying to convey. They're VERY below average. Marquette or even Trafalgar is probably you're best bet in Wisconsin for accuracy.

Trafalgar polls over Fox? WTF are you smoking?

Is this a troll? You're trolling, right?

In 2018 the average error in Trafalgar polls was equal to Fox, I'm not saying either trafalgar or fox are great polls but they performed about the same in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120

Not to mention I said FOR WISCONSIN, not necessarily overall. I wouldn't trust Trafalgar polls in Arizona or Texas, for example. They didn't poll Wisconsin in 2016 (nor did they do Minnesota) but they have a good track record in 2016 and 2018 for alike states.

Let's go through this again. Wisconsin is going to end up less than 1 point for Biden. I said I trusted Trafalgar and Marquette the most to give me an idea of how Wisconsin would go.

Trafalgar - Biden +1
Marquette - Biden +5

What did Fox and other "high quality" polls say...

Reuters/Ipsos - Biden +10
NYT/Siena - Biden +11
CNN - Biden +8 (was Biden +10 before)
ABC/WaPo - Biden +17

Even Emerson, which Atlas hates for being slightly better for Trump, had Biden +8 in Wisconsin. It's clear as day these pollsters DO NOT KNOW how to poll the state. I knew Biden was not going to win Wisconsin by more than 5, it was completely unrealistic with how 2016 and 2018 went and the extent to which Trump was still approved of.

But I was accused of being a troll or "smoking" something for stating this.