CA - Latino Decisions: Biden + 49 among Latinos

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/LatinoDecisions/status/1301198274678800385

[afleitch]

Was Clinton +47 in 2016.

[Annatar]

Latino Decisions exit poll had Clinton winning Hispanics 80-16 over Trump by 64% in CA, so this is 15% worse for Biden than what Latino Decisions exit poll found.

 https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-pedraza-latino-vote-20170111-story.html

[Person Man]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

[Annatar]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

[Alben Barkley]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

[Sirius_]

Latino Decisions exit poll had Clinton winning Hispanics 80-16 over Trump by 64% in CA, so this is 15% worse for Biden than what Latino Decisions exit poll found.

 https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-pedraza-latino-vote-20170111-story.html

You can't compare pre-election polls to exit polls. Exit polls don't have an "undecided".

[Calthrina950]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

I've never understood the argument that Biden will do worse with Hispanics than Clinton did last time, when all of the polls we have seen, such as this one, indicate the opposite.

[Ferguson97]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

I've never understood the argument that Biden will do worse with Hispanics than Clinton did last time, when all of the polls we have seen, such as this one, indicate the opposite.

Because Bernie won Hispanics in the primary, people somehow construe that as "Biden weak with Hispanics!"

[Calthrina950]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

I've never understood the argument that Biden will do worse with Hispanics than Clinton did last time, when all of the polls we have seen, such as this one, indicate the opposite.

Because Bernie won Hispanics in the primary, people somehow construe that as "Biden weak with Hispanics!"

Which is an absolutely ridiculous argument. To give the rebuttal, in 2016 Hillary Clinton was overwhelmingly supported by black voters against Sanders during the primaries. And we know what happened during the general election-black turnout fell drastically compared to 2008 and 2012, and Trump did better with black voters than McCain and Romney, contributing to Clinton's loss in the critical swing states that cost her the Electoral College and thus, the election.

[Annatar]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

I've never understood the argument that Biden will do worse with Hispanics than Clinton did last time, when all of the polls we have seen, such as this one, indicate the opposite.

The final pre 2016 polls had Clinton winning Hispanics by 38%, the 2016 exit poll found her winning Hispanics by 38% so the pre-election polls correctly predicted the Hispanic vote, Biden leads Trump by 25% among Hispanics in the polls that have come out over the past week.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301280584426287105

[ON Progressive]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

I've never understood the argument that Biden will do worse with Hispanics than Clinton did last time, when all of the polls we have seen, such as this one, indicate the opposite.

Because Bernie won Hispanics in the primary, people somehow construe that as "Biden weak with Hispanics!"

Which is an absolutely ridiculous argument. To give the rebuttal, in 2016 Hillary Clinton was overwhelmingly supported by black voters against Sanders during the primaries. And we know what happened during the general election-black turnout fell drastically compared to 2008 and 2012, and Trump did better with black voters than McCain and Romney, contributing to Clinton's loss in the critical swing states that cost her the Electoral College and thus, the election.

Not to mention Obama lost Hispanic voters in 2008 in the primary and still did far better with Hispanic voters than Kerry in November!

[Adam Griffin]

To be fair, it's CA: Democrats haven't gotten less than 70% of the Latino vote in any prominent statewide race* since the mid-1990s. Ultimately, not a single vote in California matters in a presidential election when even your "most-hostile" racial group is still plurality/majority-Democratic.

*Really not trying to hear about Schwarzenegger right now

[Calthrina950]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

I've never understood the argument that Biden will do worse with Hispanics than Clinton did last time, when all of the polls we have seen, such as this one, indicate the opposite.

The final pre 2016 polls had Clinton winning Hispanics by 38%, the 2016 exit poll found her winning Hispanics by 38% so the pre-election polls correctly predicted the Hispanic vote, Biden leads Trump by 25% among Hispanics in the polls that have come out over the past week.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301280584426287105

If I recall correctly, Clinton won Hispanics 65-29% in 2016, a margin of 36%. So she slightly undeperformed the polls you make reference to. If Trump does end up overperforming with Hispanics and with blacks compared to the 2016 election, then that would indicate something deeper which has not yet been detected. Perhaps his minority outreach will have been more effective than we thought? Or cultural reasons? But it's also true that Hispanic voters have traditionally been difficult to poll, particularly in states like Nevada, and Democrats have been underestimated among them. So we'll see what happens there.

[Annatar]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

I've never understood the argument that Biden will do worse with Hispanics than Clinton did last time, when all of the polls we have seen, such as this one, indicate the opposite.

The final pre 2016 polls had Clinton winning Hispanics by 38%, the 2016 exit poll found her winning Hispanics by 38% so the pre-election polls correctly predicted the Hispanic vote, Biden leads Trump by 25% among Hispanics in the polls that have come out over the past week.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301280584426287105

If I recall correctly, Clinton won Hispanics 65-29% in 2016, a margin of 36%. So she slightly undeperformed the polls you make reference to. If Trump does end up overperforming with Hispanics and with blacks compared to the 2016 election, then that would indicate something deeper which has not yet been detected. Perhaps his minority outreach will have been more effective than we thought? Or cultural reasons? But it's also true that Hispanic voters have traditionally been difficult to poll, particularly in states like Nevada, and Democrats have been underestimated among them. So we'll see what happens there.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

Shows 38% margin with Hispanics.

[Calthrina950]

If Biden is doing better nationally and worse in California than Clinton, how is that bad for him?

He is doing worse among Hispanics in Latino Decisions own numbers vs 2016 Latino Decisions exit polls, I'm not talking about him doing worse overall in CA.

Comparing exit polls vs. polls taken before the election is apples and oranges. Especially for Latinos, a group notoriously hard to poll that tends to show a lot of undecideds. As mentioned, he’s actually doing a couple points better than Hillary was at their poll taken at this time.

I've never understood the argument that Biden will do worse with Hispanics than Clinton did last time, when all of the polls we have seen, such as this one, indicate the opposite.

The final pre 2016 polls had Clinton winning Hispanics by 38%, the 2016 exit poll found her winning Hispanics by 38% so the pre-election polls correctly predicted the Hispanic vote, Biden leads Trump by 25% among Hispanics in the polls that have come out over the past week.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301280584426287105

If I recall correctly, Clinton won Hispanics 65-29% in 2016, a margin of 36%. So she slightly undeperformed the polls you make reference to. If Trump does end up overperforming with Hispanics and with blacks compared to the 2016 election, then that would indicate something deeper which has not yet been detected. Perhaps his minority outreach will have been more effective than we thought? Or cultural reasons? But it's also true that Hispanic voters have traditionally been difficult to poll, particularly in states like Nevada, and Democrats have been underestimated among them. So we'll see what happens there.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

Shows 38% margin with Hispanics.

Edison Exit Polling (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics) showed Clinton winning Hispanics by 36%. But then again, it's not that much of a difference.