Hill/Harris X: Biden +9

[wbrocks67]

Biden 47
Trump 38

Taken 8/25-8/28.

Same exact margin from last week (8/22-8/25)

No RNC bump.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/514399-what-americas-thinking-august-31-2020

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden 47
Trump 38

Taken 8/25-8/28.

Same exact margin from last week (8/22-8/25)

No RNC bump.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/514399-what-americas-thinking-august-31-2020

And the one before that (Aug. 15-18) had Biden leading 46-38.  Consistent with a very stable race.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/514399-what-americas-thinking-august-31-2020
Link isn't working yet for me, but 538 tends to get these results in advance.

August 25-28, 2020
2862 registered voters
MoE not yet released (will add when it arrives)

Changes with August 22-25 poll.

Biden 47% (n/c)
Trump 38% (n/c)
Will add further figures when they arrive.

It should be noted this pollster isn't great. I still think a bump is more likely than not on the basis of USC Dornslife/YouGov/Morning Consult and the main question at this point is whether that's a convention bump or a longer-term shift in the race.

[Person Man]

The bumps appeared to factor themselves out.

[politicallefty]

I wish this poll didn't have so many undecideds. There are definitely some, but nowhere near 15% (or 12-13% depending on third party votes).

[neostassenite31]

Might be too close to the RNC itself to detect any bumps?

[wbrocks67]

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/514399-what-americas-thinking-august-31-2020
Link isn't working yet for me, but 538 tends to get these results in advance.

August 25-28, 2020
2862 registered voters
MoE not yet released (will add when it arrives)

Changes with August 22-25 poll.

Biden 47% (n/c)
Trump 38% (n/c)
Will add further figures when they arrive.

It should be noted this pollster isn't great. I still think a bump is more likely than not on the basis of USC Dornslife/YouGov/Morning Consult and the main question at this point is whether that's a convention bump or a longer-term shift in the race.

USC Dornsife has shown a stable race/bump towards Biden + YouGov was a repanel of a July sample + MC was a 1 day poll. So I don't think we can really say one way or the other right now.

[Woody]

Might be too close to the RNC itself to detect any bumps?

Most likely the case, if you were to unskew this poll, it would probably be Biden somewhere between +3-5.

[wbrocks67]

Might be too close to the RNC itself to detect any bumps?

Not really, 8/22-8/25 was Saturday post-DNC into Tuesday during RNC

And then 8/25-8/28 would be Tuesday during RNC to Friday after DNC

So considering there was no movement really between Biden or Trump during that time, seems like a wash

[Nyvin]

Might be too close to the RNC itself to detect any bumps?

Most likely the case, if you were to unskew this poll, it would probably be Biden somewhere between +3-5.

"unskew" in what manner?

[DrScholl]

Might be too close to the RNC itself to detect any bumps?

Most likely the case, if you were to unskew this poll, it would probably be Biden somewhere between +3-5.

"unskew" in what manner?

I guess like how Unskewed Polls used to do.

[Person Man]

Might be too close to the RNC itself to detect any bumps?

Most likely the case, if you were to unskew this poll, it would probably be Biden somewhere between +3-5.

"unskew" in what manner?

Ala 2012. I bet he thought Romney was going to win as late as the polls closing in Colorado.

[Rand]

Has the name Harris in it. Somehow associated with Kamala. The Deep State rigs another one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release:

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/514394-poll-bidens-9-point-lead-holds-in-new-partial-post-convention

MoE: 1.83%

Changes with August 22-25 poll.

Biden 47% (n/c)
Trump 38% (n/c)
Other 4% (n/c)
Would not vote 4% (+1%)
Not sure/don't know 8% (n/c)

[Hammy]

But the "tightening" and "Biden collapsing" narrative!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

Everybody needs a hobby.  Some people golf, some people do crosswords, you panic.

[Andy Hine]

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

If the next poll is Biden +6, will you post about how the world is ending?

[Andy Hine]

Might be too close to the RNC itself to detect any bumps?

Most likely the case, if you were to unskew this poll, it would probably be Biden somewhere between +3-5.

Keep telling yourself that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

Everybody needs a hobby.  Some people golf, some people do crosswords, you panic.

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

If the next poll is Biden +6, will you post about how the world is ending?

At this point, after today's polls especially, I can honestly say that once again I was made a fool of by own cynical instincts. It's happened multiple times throughout this election, but it has happened again. I would say that I have learned the same lesson again, but my defense mechanisms for keeping my expectations grounded are just too strong.

For now though, I am feeling reassured.

[Andy Hine]

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

Everybody needs a hobby.  Some people golf, some people do crosswords, you panic.

Stop being a stereotypical whiny neckbeard and go outside.

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

If the next poll is Biden +6, will you post about how the world is ending?

At this point, after today's polls especially, I can honestly say that once again I was made a fool of by own cynical instincts. It's happened multiple times throughout this election, but it has happened again. I would say that I have learned the same lesson again, but my defense mechanisms for keeping my expectations grounded are just too strong.

For now though, I am feeling reassured.

[Orwell]

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

Everybody needs a hobby.  Some people golf, some people do crosswords, you panic.

Stop being a stereotypical whiny neckbeard and go outside.

I sure hope this remains the case if, or when, we get other post-RNC national polls. I am perfectly fine with looking like an idiot again for prematurely panicking at a development in this race.

If the next poll is Biden +6, will you post about how the world is ending?

At this point, after today's polls especially, I can honestly say that once again I was made a fool of by own cynical instincts. It's happened multiple times throughout this election, but it has happened again. I would say that I have learned the same lesson again, but my defense mechanisms for keeping my expectations grounded are just too strong.

For now though, I am feeling reassured.

GM is significantly older than your average internet neckbeard bro, unless you were referring to Progressive Pessimist.